Are coins in a BUBBLE?

Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by BigTee44, Oct 4, 2014.

  1. Galen59

    Galen59 Gott helfe mir

    I have to say I feel this is the best opportunity's in a decade to start your collection, stackers, ah well, buy low, sell high.
    Silver buckets are filling up, prices are great. Collect what you love, don't worry so much as to what it's worth, enjoy.
     
    princeofwaldo likes this.
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  3. Vegas Vic

    Vegas Vic Undermedicated psychiatric patient

    When I was 15 and working for a coin dealer he would tell me his motto should be "lose money with us" because he told me that with all the old people dying and the lack of young new collectors coins would only be worth a small fraction of where in 20 years.
     
    Paul M. likes this.
  4. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    And, to complete the lesson, how many years ago was this? :)
     
  5. coinzip

    coinzip Well-Known Member

    A market correction is an opportunity.....

    In 10 years you will look back and say "I shoulda or I wish I woulda."
     
  6. Vegas Vic

    Vegas Vic Undermedicated psychiatric patient

    Sadly we are at 24 years and despite my best efforts still counting. All I'm saying is the "young collector" doom has been around a while. If I'm not mistaken doug has commented in a similar fastion in a past thread.
     
  7. Kirkuleez

    Kirkuleez 80 proof

    As a proof collector, I have noticed prices stay relatively steady for the past three decades, but have also seen most business strike coins go on wild swings during that same period. The theory that when older collectors start selling off their collections, prices will fall has already been proven correct in the nineties. Coins were on a sharp decline for years before the state quarter program injected some life into the hobby. I am thirty eight and am often the youngest person at an auction, but at shows, I see a pretty decent number of younger collectors. I see the hobby on a slight decline, but don't foresee numismatics heading in the same direction as philately.
     
  8. brg5658

    brg5658 Well-Known Member

    Oh my goodness, this statement is wrong on so many levels I don't even know where to start. There is nothing special about uber-expensive coins. Not only can they fall in price, they have farther to fall before they bottom out. Don't believe me, ask the guys who bought the "first" JFK gold commem how their $100,000 investment is doing? ;)
     
    40_mila_kokkina and BigTee44 like this.
  9. brg5658

    brg5658 Well-Known Member

    @saltysam-1 you are a wise, wise man!! I couldn't have said it better myself!
     
  10. gxseries

    gxseries Coin Collector

    It's hard to say. Some of the more common stuff are probably worth a bit less than what I paid a few years ago. However rare / key date coins are always in demand any time of the year.
     
    Galen59 likes this.
  11. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    My impression is that that crash was due to big "coins as investment" promotions in the late 1980s.

    Yes, collectors get older and sell off their collections -- but that's always happening. It's not like there was an unusually large overstock of collectors hitting their expiration dates right at that time.
     
    Galen59 likes this.
  12. josh's coins

    josh's coins Well-Known Member

    if you collect coins and hope to profit from them in the future than you need to go after high end items that will attract the attention of the upper class.Unfortunately the middle class isn't doing so well and it will continue to get worse. This is why I predict that most coins under $15,000 are going to lose significant value.
     
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2014
  13. HOLLYWOOD

    HOLLYWOOD Active Member

    One day in 2000 i was sitting at my desk and something out of the blue told me to buy gold (age) Im a collector but when spot hit 1900 oz it forced me to sell lol anyway this is a fun and exciting hobby and the mint always comes up with new and interesting coin sets to put together and such i think im adicted now.
     
  14. 40_mila_kokkina

    40_mila_kokkina Active Member

    Now what do you consider as "young" people coming into the hobby. I'm 35, does that qualify as young to you?
     
  15. 40_mila_kokkina

    40_mila_kokkina Active Member

    Until those coins too go into a bubble as the rich grow poorer who aren't the richest of the rich.
     
  16. 40_mila_kokkina

    40_mila_kokkina Active Member

    Another question is this: What are young people today spending their money on mostly and the really big question is do most have any money to spend at all? It may seem odd to many but I actually do spend most of my money on coins.
     
  17. bkozak33

    bkozak33 Collector

    I started collecting at age 30. Neve was interested before that
     
  18. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    There is no doubt that "bubbles" do occur in the coin market, that is just a fact. And when they do occur, nothing is immune. And of course there are varying degrees of "bubbles". The big one popped in 1989. The only bull market we've had since then, popped at the end of 2008.

    Josh there were many coins purchased in 2008 for well over $100,000 each. In 2009, those same coins, and I mean the exact same coin not just one like it, sold for under $50,000. And at the end of 2008 everything dropped, not just the high end coins. The ones that cost under $50 dropped too. In short, coin values across the board fell off a cliff in 2009. They bottomed out at the end of 2012.

    Right now the market is on a minor upswing, has been for two years. But it has also reached a level (a high) that it has bounced off from three times since early 2011. Now that doesn't constitute a "bubble". Instead, it is what is known in market terms as a dead cat bounce - it's hits bottom, and then bounces. How high it bounces usually establishes the new and temporary high. It usually drops again from there. How low it goes usually established the new and temporary low. And then for several years the market will fluctuate between the temp low and the temp high. This is new market range. And it will stay in that range, bouncing up and down, until something happens that changes everything. And then it will drop lower, or go higher - out of that range.

    Typically, in coins, bear markets will last from 5 to 8 years. Bull markets will last from 3 to 5 years. History bears this out. It's not magic, there's no great secret, that's what has typically happened. You can't deny history for history is based on what has already been. The future is based on what might be.

    But in looking at history we know that as a general rule once a solid bottom has been established for period of time the market will turn upwards again. 1989 was the exception to that. 1989 established a top that we will likely never see again in any of our lifetimes, and I don't care if you're only 10. Coins today are still worth less than half of what they were 25 years ago.

    Looking at the bigger picture, the coin market has been flat since the end of 2008. And I mean flat, flatter than it has been since the 1960's and very early '70s.

    Where will it go from here ? Guaranteed, it will go up and down, just like it always has ;)
     
    mark_h likes this.
  19. BigTee44

    BigTee44 Well-Known Member

    The reason I was wondering is along with my wheat cents I collected as a kid and early teenager, my money went into baseball cards. I had over 300 Ken Griffey Jr cards... rookies, inserts, bats, jerseys... you name it. All of my money went into some kind of baseball or football collectible. Then I was 17, wanted a car, and all I had to my name was my baseball collection.

    So in 1999 when I decided I wanted some wheels instead of baseball cards, I went into my local card shop and handed him a list of all the cards. He said he'd need to see each card to know exactly who the player was... I told them they were all Griffey cards.... he looked at the list and said I'll give you $200 for everything.... Mind you during this time, the 89 Upper Deck rookie was at least a $75 card(how far she's fallen!) and then there was the other 300 cards.... some bats, some jerseys, some refractors, ones that were #'d, sure there was the common cards from the cheap sets but there was a lot of cards valued by Beckett at over $2k for the set....

    Was this for real, 10%. All of those packs I'd bought, all the cards I bought in this shop, the cards I had bought on eBay.... 10%

    $200.... I made the decision to sell my cards to get this car... (The explorer I bought a few years after)

    cars.jpg 1996 Chevy Beretta

    I just remember sitting there at the card shop making the decision, thinking of how much I spent and how little I'd be getting back.

    I loved collecting baseball cards back then as I do collecting coins now, would just hate to see the coin market do exactly what my card values did....luckily I did sell before the big card market popped... so I guess I'm lucky I got $200 instead of $20!

    Loved that car, my first real one, bought and paid for by myself.... I guess that makes you want to keep it forever when you did all the hard work yourself!

    Sadly I sold it cheap to my sister when she was in a hard spot, and she turned around and sold it for a profit to buy something else.... So I don't know where it's at anymore, but maybe one day I'll come across her again!
     
  20. Volante

    Volante Well-Known Member

    College loans and alcohol.
     
    princeofwaldo and Lord Geoff like this.
  21. HOLLYWOOD

    HOLLYWOOD Active Member

    Also around the time i sold the dow & nasdaq droped one was 600 and the other was 500 then later that week or so they droped again i remember one totaled 1200 for the week or so thats when if i can remember correctly spot went up alot but dont take my word for it i just think that the markets could have verry well have been a good indicator for me at that time and im verry glad that i had tangables and happened to see spot at that time gold & the horse races have been good to me thank you jesus.
     
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