So I was surfing through eBay when I saw this. What got me was not the item but the bids. $600 for a "condition rarity" So let's do the math. 2411180 proof sets plus 599317 prestige for a total of 3,010,497 total proof 1c. Now look at the pcgs population. 2.1% of the total graded population is 70. Sounds low with a pop of 81. But here's the thing. Theoretical number with no preselection gives me 63,220 70's out there just waiting to be slabbed. Let's say you argue that they look at ten sets for every one submitted. Ok that still gives us 6,322 70's just waiting for their plastic. This high price is contingent on a pop of only 81. Why do people buy condition rarities for coins that are minted like this. I can understand an uncirculated coin like a Morgan where there are many millions of coins and like a small number of 69's. But this modern stuff just goes past me. Now you can tell me it is a "private" auction and just shill bids. Ok but check this out. These are real auction prices. You can click the links and see that this coin is actually selling for hundreds of dollars. Anyway coin for the thread. With cat selfie
Registry set idiocy. I say idiocy but not throwing stones at their type of idiocy versus my own. I agree with your math Vic that there are just TONS of these out there, but since they haven't been slabbed yet, and these registry set builders want the "credit" for a 70 of this date, the price goes stupidly high. But, like I said, I pay stupidly high prices in most people's eyes for ancient coins, in fact we all pay stupidly high prices for "old coins" in the eyes of the general public. So, we are all "pretty stupid" in the eyes of our relatives, right?
Condition rarity - it's kind of an odd thing. When it's mentioned most folks automatically think of moderns and the 70 grade coins, much like you are pointing out in this post. But what most folks tend to forget, or just not think of, is that condition rarity applies just as much to classic coins as it does to moderns. In fact, let's use that other coin you posted, the BTW commem as an example. Here we have a coin very similar to yours. Attractive and similar toning, and same grade on both - This coin sold for $76 in a recent auction. But now we have another example of the same coin, again attractive and similar toning, but a higher grade - This coin sold for $646 at a recent auction, in fact within 6 days of the other one. So why almost a $600 increase ? Condition rarity. NGC has graded 1,106 of these coins as 65, but only 64 of them as a 67, with 2 higher. PCGS has graded 1,577 of these coins as 65, but only 73 as 67 with 1 higher. Condition rarity applies to all coins, always has. The coins can be the most modern, or 700 years old - the number (age) doesn't matter. What matters is the condition when it comes to value. Yes, I agree 100% that what people pay for the modern 70 grade coins is ridiculous. But the same phenomena occurs with a 67 BTW with attractive toning. A $600 increase (same amount as you pointed out ) for a 2 point grade increase - condition rarity. What's my point ? It's in my first paragraph - condition rarity applies just as much to classic coins as it does to moderns.
I agree there has always been this "condition rarity" idea in US numismatics, in fact all numismatics. The main difference has been degree. Before Registry sets that second coin might have brought a little more than the first, but not 10 times the price. So, while Registry sets did not INVENT the idea of condition rarity, it has sent premiums for tiny little differences, (difference in many cases the owners of the coins themselves cannot see), to crazy levels. "Traditional" condition rarity is like the following. There are a series of bronzes the Byzantines struck called anonymous bronzes. THey are fairly popular due to portraying Christ on a large bronze coin. However, they were the workhorse coins of commerce, and as such most are found very worn, and the face of Christ was the highest point on the coin so it both did not strike up well and was the first point to wear. So, finding one of these coins with a full face of Christ showing is pretty rare. Therefor, a full face anonymous bronze can bring 10x the price of an average specimen. However, I find this price structure fair because it truly IS about condition. Every single person who looks at these coins immediately notes the condition difference. There are a lot of buyers who ONLY want a full face portrait because they want to give it as a gift or something. So, same action going on in both instances, but the latter makes more sense to me. Again, I am not throwing stones, and people can spend their money on what they want in this hobby. If you want a certain coin because of what the plastic says more than your own eyes, its your money. Maybe I just never had such a need to flew my epeen and participate in such "competitions".
So then my question comes down to this. In my example almost every single one of those 1986 1c are still in survival perfectly preserved. How about the half? I tried to find pics of the packaging. The importance? I want to have some idea of current survival. My point in the op is that the 1986 1c are still all out there just waiting to be found. So my question is do the btw have the same survival rate both number and original condition as the 1c? Are they as numerous in coins both survived AND perfectly preserved?
And I think the registry set was and still is the most profitable idea that the tpg's ever came up with.
A lot of people use that line of thinking, that there are all these 70 grade coins out there just sitting in original packaging waiting to be graded. But are they ? The numbers you quoted above show that today there are 81 of the '86 cents graded 70. But at the end of 2003 there were 26 of them. So in over 10 years time, and even considering the TPGs loosened their grading standards since then, that number has only increased by 55 coins. That doesn't exactly indicate that there are just thousands of the 70 grade coins sitting out there waiting to be graded. It took them (PCGS) 17 years to grade 26 of them a 70. It took another 11 years to grade 55 more of them a 70. So in 28 years time and with a loosening of standards, still 81 have been graded 70. Now the '86 Proof had a mintage of just over 3 million. The BTW, if you include all of them, also had a mintage of roughly 3 million. And the numbers of the '86 cent graded 70, and the numbers of the BTW graded 67 are also roughly the same. And both with a very similar increase in value. Do they, the 67 BTW's and the 70 '86 cents, have the same survival rate today ? Who knows, but the numbers, all the way around, are remarkably similar - are they not ? Again, point is condition rarity applies to ALL coins, and always has. Just like Chris said, it applies with the ancients he collects. It applied with the medieval gold I used to collect. And it applies with the moderns of today.
