This is one of my favorite designs so I just had to pick up another one yesterday. I already had a 1909-D and picked up a 1914 yesterday. They both book price exactly the same but what surprised me were the mintages. The 1909-D minted 3,423,000 and the 1914 only minted 247,000. I would expect such a low mintage to carry a higher premium but obviously it doesn't. Anyone care to educate me as to why?
I think your mistake is in thinking that they price the same. In looking at Heritage the '14 is a $1000 more than the '09-D in the same grade. Now I don't know what your source is for "book" or how you define that, but above is what auction records show. That said, mintage numbers usually have nothing to do with establishing value of a coin and never have had anything to do with it. The only that matters is how many still survive today, not how many they made 100 years ago. As far as that survival rate goes the '09-D is the most common coin of the series. The '14 ranks number 15 in the series. The series has 26 coins in it, but yet there are only 7 coins with a lower mintage than the '14. But still it ranks #15. That should show you what I am talking about regarding survival rates.
I guess I should have clarifed. A poor man's MS63 and lower. Just quick references to the redbook and PCGS price guide. How do they determine survival rates for such a relatively new coin of which many may be melted or sitting in a jewelry box waiting for a grandson to pawn it?
I looked at 64 for the grade. As for how they determine survival rates, it's pretty easy, you keep track of sales, how many are graded, the market in other words. No the numbers aren't exact and never will be. But they do give you a pretty good idea of many there are out there. The market basically determines everything, is everything, it always has been and always will be. But there's a lot of collectors who don't understand the market or even what it means. But it tells you at a glance if a coin is scarce or not. It also tells you if a coin is actually rare or not, and of course if it is common. And you never have to look at any mintage numbers anywhere, or any price guides, to see all of that. All ya have to do is look at, or already know, the market. Anybody can learn the market, all it takes is time and effort, and a good memory.
