The future of rare coin collecting

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According to CNN, the US population increased by almost 10% from 2000 to 2010. The non-hispanic white population increased 1%. The increase was 3.64 million out of a total 2010 population of 309 million.

This increase is "insignificant as far as the collecting population is concerned". It's wiped out by the 2nd derivative or the future rate of change, as well as the possibility that that population will almost certainly be poorer going forward.

People will become more concerned about mere survival as the middle class fades away and poverty increases in the US. This is not an insignificant trend.

Also the post discusses the future of rare coin collecting. I never expect that AU-58 1797 Small Eagle Bust dollars will end up being used as shims to adjust brake pads on Ford Excursions, but that the very high valuations given to "RARE" coins, specifically rare USA coins, will seriously readjust [lower].

Believe me, if you offered me an AU 1776 Continental dollar (pewter) for $2,000. with the proviso that I never sell it, I'd buy it in a heartbeat & use it for my displays to Boy Scouts on old coins. I just passed 3 of the guys at the coin collecting merit badge college!

I think there will be a serious market readjustment as many wall street investment types realize that ms-63 Turban Head gold half eagles (nice unc 1806 $5 gold pieces) no longer are investment miracles.

 

I agree with you on the trend, it's your hyperbole I disagree with.

 

I saw a re-run of the old Hawaii 5-0 today about the 1913 nickel

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0598155/

They say in 1973 it was worth 100k, seems about right to me. Now 40 years later I think we'd be looking at 3-5 Million for it. I would say inflation has eroded the 1973 dollar by a factor of 5-8 X. Buying that would have been a nice winner.

I don't think it will work out well buying it now for say 4 million. One is coming up for sale soon. I just can't see this being worth over 100 million in another 40 years or even worth 10 million in 20 years.

 

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162...nickel-expected-to-fetch-millions-at-auction/

 

Can someone tell me WHY Harley-Davidson started hiding the data/truth about the dramatically aging ridership of it's bikes? http://www.cnbc.com/id/100569945
"{UBS Robin} Farley believes that the decline in retail sales is more than just a cyclical trough and is tied to a changing demographic trend—the average rider is aging. Farley notes that the Harley stopped disclosing the average age of the rider in 2008 but that the average had been climbing even before then. In 2008, the average rider was 48 years old, up from 46.1 years in 1999.

Could it be the SAME REASON the coin industry rags won't detail the truth, what's happening to the US numismatic market? Does anyone really believe these demographic numbers are completely unknown in the coin trade??? Will anyone provide those demographic #s here, for ALL to examine? No, that's a closely guarded secret.

The general sketch here is, I think, correct.

http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=26&threadid=882680
>>State quarters are #1 in terms of number of collectors, but 99.9% of them are collecting at face value. For U.S. numismatic coins, Lincoln cents are #1 in terms of number of collectors. In terms of dollar value of slabbed coins Morgans dollars and $20 Saints are about equal, with each at 35% to 40% of total market cap of all slabbed coins. edited <<

http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=26&threadid=835128&STARTPAGE=1
>>Collecting tends to be a life long pursuit. Where the influx of new young collectors normally rises and falls with demographics in this particular case there were almost no new collectors at all added to the ranks between 1965 and 1998. edited <<This data is nearly a decade old. http://www.harryrinker.com/col-978.html
>>
Demographic profiles by item purchased were presented for five subcategories—antique furnishings, coins, comics, sports memorabilia, and toys. The average mean age for comic collectors was 40, sports memorabilia 44, toys 45, antique furnishings 48, and coins 53. edited<<

In 2012, Heritage now reports ~200,000 serious collectors, CoinWorld counts 2,000,000. Folks, that's almost exactly where the market was in 1990, twenty years ago. According to US Mint #s, 2.70% of the US population was collecting in 1978 .... down to 0.74% in 1998.

http://coins.ha.com/ref/demographics.zx
Following the 1989 Investor's Death Spike in Morgans (now, ~35% of the slabbed market?) it's not surprising that 45% of US coin collectors paid > USD$ 1,000. "annually" back in 1989. They bought hype. If we can assume that US Mint Director's #s for 1998 correct, total US coin collectors in 1990 ~4 mln, with 1,800,000 ">$1k annual collectors" then the CoinWorld stat is about flat. (Adjusting for PM increases, the picture only gets worse.)

 

What was it Mark Twain said?

Oh yeah.....There are lies, damned lies and statistics........

 

Juan I am almost the national speed limit in age.
God will have to bless u!!! */* i am just happy to wake up
most days as I know one day I may Not.
I have lived a very full life.20+yrs US Army sent me to a lot of countrys
then 16 more yrs@Dunlop Ltd. I am retired.
Now its sunset of my life they say.

 

I could see Harley sales falling of some. It is more of a 60's & 70's type of motorcycle. I'm not a big fan of loud bikes either. I think young guys today tend to the superfast sportsbikes if they are going to spend like 20k on a bike.

I have a 150cc Vespa scooter which is technically a motorcycle. Scooters are available up to 650CC in the Suzuki brand and that is certainly an option for older folks instead of a Hog. They are nice and quiet with lots of storage and I'm sure they go at least 85-90 on the highway all day long and no shifting with great mileage.

I use the Vespa ET4-150 for short trips of 30 or less miles when the temperature is over 45 degrees. It goes 55 and gets 65-70 mpg beating the **** out of my F-150 at 14 MPG. I bought it last summer ( it's a 2001) for $1400 and I'm really happy with it, no problems whatsoever in 2500 of my miles so far. They cost 5k new

A lot of older bikers also switch to trikes. I think H/D will just have to cut back production, they can't change themselves into a clone of the Japanese brands. Plenty of small production niche cars exist, I don't think Harley is going out of business.

 

I only collect coins with silver in them and bullion. I feel safe as I know the Dems/Reps are working overtime to destroy the fiat USD.:dead-horse:

 

Paper USD and stamps are just common paper and can and are being printed into waste paper levels. Only gold and silver are in the Bible and US Constitution of having any value and are both time tested.:hail:

 

I think the biggest threat to the hobby is inflation. The reason why we have good rare coins today is because previous generations had reason to collect coins of their time, which had real value then, and a most likely a future value outlook. Can we say the same today? Mints around the world are desperately trying to keep coinage alive with proof coinage, but is, like stamps for example, with so many varieties and numbers that the prospect of future value is diminishing. Was paging through the new 2001- Krause catalog, 2/3 of the book is proof coinage.

 

Sales for ASEs and AGEs are at historically high numbers. There is a shift within the community from numismatics to bullion coins. I see nothing wrong with that. I can't predict what the next trend will be but I can promise one thing; there will always people collecting coins.

 

I do not disagree as such with the statement, but see only wrong in that. It is a individual preference, but I cannot imagine collection bullion coins other than some hedge against precious metals. It cannot be, and should not be, considered as rare coin collecting.

 

Not because all those folks want bullion coins, but because World Government printing is out of control....:dead-horse:

 

Well if they are looking for precious metals solely, why would they pay 5-8% premiums for such coins? There are alternative and cheaper ways to invest in PM without purchasing government issued coins.

 

That is true, but many want small bullion gov't mint coins and not just pure silver from unknown private mints. Many folks are new in this bullion game and are paying the 5-8% premiums for added insurance. Insurance is why they are buying them anyways.

 

I think, people who buy bullion coins for the purpose of coin collecting are because there is not much to collect in current coinage and prices of older good coins are just to high. You get a nice coin for cheap. I bought mine for that sole purpose. Others, including me, look for varieties and errors in circulating coinage with a slight premium. I just came back from holiday in Canada and was utterly dissapointed with quality if coinage in circulation. Looks like play money and is most likely the same for many countries all over the world. Is there a thread showing coinage around the world?

 

I do not see a problem in the coin hobby dying down anytime soon. I am 51 now. I have been collecting coins for about 25 years now. there are more old people collectors because they have more money and time to spend on coins. I have slowed down my coin buying due to having to pay back credit card debt. I do not believe people are only buying precious metals coins. there are a lot of non precious metal coins out there that are as collectible as ever before. I collect for fun not for profit. it is good to know that I could get more money for some coins than other coins. this comes with experience in knowing which coins are more scarce in the coin market. I am not in fear of this hobby dying any time soon. there are many coin collectors out there still. I look forward to collecting coins until I die and pass them on. I look forward to learning a lot more about coins in the future. A new trend for me is that I am liking the older coinage more and more. every now and then a modern coin will catch my eye with a super design. :whistle:

 

FALSE.
Investment in a PM ETP is not actually an investment in PMs (the GLD ETF is a paper financial instrument, not a call or warrant on bullion.) Institutions and HNW investors may have cheaper alternatives; most individuals do not. And unless you hang a shingle yourself, becoming a vest-pocket PM trader on CL, there are no cheaper alternatives for avg American retail investors than ~5-8% premiums* on ASEs, Morgans, whatever.

Becoming a quasi-professional trader not a reasonable alternative for MOST people buying/selling a few dozen ounces of bullion. fwiw, the avg seller's cost on eBay is ~13%, currently. A 5-8% premium to BUY PMs really isn't much, especially with s/h/ins.* What were the premiums for AGEs and ASEs back in 2009?

fwiw here's a table of premiums (no s/h/i, I suppose; HIGH miminums???):
http://goldprice.org/gold-prices/1003-Gold-Coins/1001-American-Gold-Eagle.htm

* I ran a calc of APMEX premiums +plus s/h on eBay on 2/15/2013. Here is the breakdown for avg cost at mkt, for several dozen auctions of Ag product:

100 ozt (generic) ingot .....12.0% premium over Spot
10 ozt (generic) ingot ..... 16.9% premium over Spot
10 ozt (brand) ingot ..........20.2% premium over Spot
5 ozt (generic) ingot ........ 19.6% premium over Spot
5 ozt (ATB) round .............29.1% premium over Spot
1 ozt (generic) round ........36.3% premium over Spot ( range: 34.5% - 48.8%)
1 ozt (collectible) round .....53.4% premium over Spot ( range: 39.7% - 119.5%)

You can see for yourself the numismatic premium for various products, from the rock-bottom cheapest premium (12%) which is very close to eBay's fee!
Premiums fluctuate, but the 100 ozt ingot cost is reasonable baseline for a calc. You also might be able to buy 100 ozt at a known bullion dealer in store for ~1-2% premium ; check around. I doubt many posters here have 100 ozt ingots, though. It's NOT reasonable to suppose coin-rollers do.