rare coins will always get TPG consideration for an inflated grade IMO, even coins that are already premium might get an uptick depending on the graders.
I trust TPGs, and think that they are 90-95% right consistently. However, they make mistakes like anybody else. The slider coins are harder to grade, and do many AU coins make it into MS holders? Yes, of course. Doug is right about that; the big two make the same mistake as the basement slabbers in that regard. I don't think the error rate is as prevalent as he thinks, but I do agree that there are coins that have crossed and upgraded that are not MS coins--I have owned a few over the years that I have questioned being MS, and grinned to myself that they were never getting cracked out by me. The OP's coin reminds me of exactly that--smile and accept a MS grade that really isn't MS, but a very strong AU. That is the quintessential slider.
Just to be clear, I don't believe for one second that they are making mistakes at all. I am 100% convinced, as are many others including former graders and numismatic authors, that they are quite intentionally grading AU coins as MS.
Ordinary common dates? What would be the logic in that? I could see it in terms of key dates, as it becomes a monetary issue, but the "grade conspiracy" thing makes absolutely no sense to me. All it would do is completely destroy any credibility they might have, and that isn't the case for MOST people.
First of all it's not a conspiracy at all, never has been. Instead it was/is an intentional changing of their grading standards. And yeah, I know a lot of people find that hard to believe. But to a very large degree that's because they don't want to believe it. But grading standards can and do change, and they have changed several times over the years. And those are documented changes, changes that were acknowledged and admitted to having taken place by the people who made the changes. And if it has happened several times in the past why should it be so hard to believe that it has happened again ? I mean, I just don't understand the logic of that ! And no, those changes in the past did not destroy anybody's credibility at all. If anything, the changes increased their credibility because that's what people wanted. When you give people something they want, they tend to be happy with it - not unhappy. The TPGs make changes all the time, and not just to grading standards, but to just about everything. They acknowledge this, they admit it, they even do press releases about it. And it's almost always because that's what their customers wanted them to do - so they do it. Now if you, or anyone, doesn't know what those changes were and when they took place then you need to study up on the history of grading.
I know what your evaluation of the changed standards are--i just don't agree that there has been a mass change as you state. Others take positions that back both yourself and me, so this will be debated endlessly.
No doubt. But when people who were actually doing the grading for the TPGs write it about it having happened, and when you see it with your own eyes, it's gets pretty hard not agree that yeah, it happened - again.
I would agree with you in terms of "Market Grading" of key dates, and conditional rarities. I do not agree for ordinary, garden variety common date coins. I think a much looser standard is applied to key dates, and they're given "kid gloves" grading in many cases to build up or tear down the credibility of an individual coin. I don't think it has changed back in 2004 as you have stated before--at least not across the boards.
Let me ask you a question, how do you define "market grading" ? There are a lot of people, and I mean a lot, who are very knowledgeable and experienced collectors who say that the TPGs do not grade coins, that they price them. That's what they call market grading. (I am not one of those people btw) Now if that is the case, then it must be admitted that they do it to all coins, not just some of them. And if the price goes up then the grade goes up - if they are pricing the coins instead of grading them. And yes, pretty much everyone agrees that the TPGs routinely and very intentionally over-grade coins of high value. You'd be hard pressed to find an experienced collector or dealer to disagree with that. But that is an entirely different thing than what we are talking about.
Maybe we can make you one of those people. Read it for yourself, PCGS's definition of "market grading": "A numerical grade that matches the grade at which a particular coin generally is traded in the marketplace. The grading standard used by PCGS." Emphasis supplied; http://www.pcgs.com/Lingo/M. Not necessarily. They're fitting coins into the grades they reasonably believe the coins can trade at in the marketplace. That in large part depends on their, well, marketing, doesn't it? Sure it does. First they have to get us to swallow it. I'll even show you how they do that. In that same coin glossary, find "technical grading." Then, understand, it's no accident it's not there. Figure it out. They're phasing it out. They're phasing you out. Now there's a subject for a thread. I agree, that's a different subject-matter.
OK eddie, so where does it say price anywhere in that definition ? Surprise, surprise, it doesn't. Yeah, it says traded. But that doesn't mean that you, or anyone can else, can assume that traded means price, because that is not what it means. What it means is that the grade assigned by PCGS is the grade that the marketplace is willing to accept. Now who do you suppose the marketplace is ? Or how do you define marketplace ? Well, the marketplace is composed of collectors and dealers, and a large part of those people just happen to be customers of PCGS. So what you have there in that definition is PCGS admitting in writing that they base their grading on what their customers, in other words the marketplace, want. Do you really think I just make stuff up or something ? I don't. I base my comments on evidence, things that I can see, hear, read, and observe. Things that are real, things that are facts and not opinions. And no eddie, I do not use nor do I grade coins based on technical grading. I have used the market grading system since it was invented by the ANA back in 1986. And market grading has nothing to do with price, never has. And, you see, that's the problem. Some people think that's what market grading is. And they do that because they make an assumption that because the market is used then that must mean money or price is involved. But it doesn't mean that at all. No more than it does when you assumed that "traded at" means money or price is involved. Market grading has nothing to do with price. The term was merely adopted to use so that it could be differentiated from the old grading system which was technical grading. That's the difference - it's two different grading systems. The old system was technical grading, the new system (the one we use) is market grading. And they are as different from each other as day is from night. But neither one has anything to do with price or money, and never did.
If I were to pony up the money for a better date in uncirculated, it had better be a no doubt about, unquestionable UNC. Not a slider. If I wanted a slider, I buy a slider - and likely get it a lot cheaper. In the few years I've been in this hobby, I'm starting to really dislike the notion of the "silent net grade" and coins that "graduate" to uncirculated. I wish the TPGs would just grade the coin for what it is - let the buyers and Sellers decide what it is worth.
I'll tell you what they're doing, Doug. They're not even "market grading." They're "marketing grading." Their marketing is leading and their grading is following. On "traded in the marketplace," that certainly means "price" to me. PS: I don't recall pointing that finger, Doug. FWIW, I believe you're knowledgeable, fair and sincere.
Not sure what you mean by their marketing, but I agree, they are not market grading. Quite some time ago I called what they are doing value grading. To me that is most accurate term. Don't you think they would have said price if that's what they meant ? As I said I understand why some could think that because they associate marketplace with money. But read the statement again. The key phrase there is - "A numerical grade that matches the grade ......" . - "Traded in the marketplace" merely refers to what most people would grade the coin themselves. A grade that the marketplace is willing to accept in other words. My comment was not meant to imply that you were. But rather to explain that I don't make it up at all, but instead that I read what they say themselves.
There was a time when Clorox Bleach traded at 3X ordinary bleach. Credit that to Clorox's marketing strategy. That's what I mean. No. No more than Clorox let on what they were doing. No more than PCGS would let on they're assigning "[a] numerical grade that matches the grade at which a particular coin generally is traded in the marketplace [they're manipulating through their marketing strategy (an integral part of which is their palsy-walsy network of dealers and experts who are all making money hand over foot on how they have that marketplace psyched to buy coins)]." Or something like that. I could probably get it better if I thought about it for more than five seconds.