2012-P Acadia 5oz Sold Out

Rubbish. And all discussion of "low-mintage" and price is (implicitly) about VALUE. The collapsing numismatic value of most US moderns isn't even a point worth arguing over, IMO. But whether (or NOT) that relative value might rise (or probably fall) we shall see. Time will tell, but sensible observers already know 'trend is your friend.' I offered a well-reasoned baseline: where we are now, the market is what the market is, etc.

TopCatCoin-
You already know the secret: 'Buy Low, Sell High!' Don't pay full-price. Find a desperate collector who paid the sucker's premium and offer him/her Spot plus 5%, that's fair and probably 'what it's worth.' (Pay more only if someone's truly needy and you're feeling charitable.) I'd also warn that Silver isn't bottoming yet - bigger discounts await.

Your Hawaii ATB (bullion) cost-basis was/is $37.5/ozt. POS on 9/24/2012 was $33.73, not bad!
2/20/2013 POS @ $29.11, net feeBay, the Hawaii is currently worth about $53.11/ozt. Intrinsic Ag premium still 5%, the numismatic premium is 29.4% here.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/2012-5-oz-Silver-Coin-America-the-Beautiful-Hawaii-Volcanoes-/150998283357?pt=Bullion_US&hash=item232832f45d

Then again, APMEX sold the bullion coin for $233. on 1/27/2013. Net feeBay (13%) + the Ag bullion rate (5%), the numismatic premium dropped to a paltry 2.2% over your cost-basis.... GAHH!
http://www.ebay.com/itm/2012-5-oz-Silver-ATB-Coin-Hawaii-Volcanoes-Hawaii-America-Beautiful-/111004185894

It should also be obvious: most popular/recent coins are very poor metric for long-term value on average. These Hawaii coins are TOO NEW to have a meaningful price-chart yet. But if you track many other formerly lava-hot US mass-merch collectibles over time, you will understand exactly what I mean. So check back in August 2015 - three years later - to see how well (or poorly) the numismatic premium held up against your cost-basis, in actuality.

For potential buyers, though, when/if POS hits $22.>25./ozt in two - five months, these coins will be selling much much cheaper on the 'bay. Just sayin'

 

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Hawaii P-Pucks raw in Mint packaging $600 and rising...just the facts, NOT speculation...just sayin'...

 

The tens/hundreds of billions of OTHER wheat cents that tens of millions of Americans own are what "has to do with" the price of the S VDB.

This series is something almost no one but a few coin collectors have even HEARD of, let alone own one of. So, my question would be what the heck does the price of an S VDB have to do with demand for a coin series that is almost unknown?

 

It has to do with rarity. Now, the future demand side of the equation, no one knows, but due to the rarity, they have potential. There are numerous other examples, among them modern commems, where few wanted them initially, but later demand drove the price up. Make them and collectors will collect them.

 

Why pay only $600 raw when you could have paid $1,187. slabbed ?
http://www.ebay.com/itm/4-2012-P-AT...-SILVER-NGC-SP69-Early-Releases-/150981359025

Or raw in a flip for just $182. (POS @ 31.82, the Seller probably lost money on that one: after feeBay, $149/5 = $29.85 ozt.)
http://www.ebay.com/itm/2012-5-Oz-S...-Hawaii-Volcanoes-Coin-SKU26654-/130853787871

 

On the P-Pucks:

2010- 75,000+ sold (5 coins)
2011- 75,000+ sold (5 coins)
2012- 75,000+ sold when done (5 coins)

225,000 P-Pucks sold in 3 years....I'd say thats more than a few collectors.

 

Why didn't you post some RAW Hawaii P-Pucks......only 2 listed. Post some Raw Hawaii P-Pucks for under $550...by the way thats $100+ per ounce.

 

Exactly. Demand for wheat cent collections is known. I simply objected to your analogy between the two. I have some SL halves that about 5,000 were minted. I have owned them about 20 years now, when should demand for these "great rarities" boom? Will it ever?

15,000 might seem like very few, but if only 5,000 are desired, then the other 10,000 would simply be bullion. Or maybe you would be right, and 50,000 will be demanded. My only point is this is a crapshoot, whereas demand for 16d dimes, S VDB and 1877 cents, and many other rare coins is predicated on set collector demand. Without those set collectors, (just like my SL halves), a coin can be very rare, and very cheap.

 

You bring up a good point/analogy. The older the coin, the less likely it will be collected as a series because the whole series for the average collector is out of reach. So, one example of an SL Half is all that is demanded. You can see this happening with early 20th century series as well. So, the more modern the series, the more attainable it is. As for these pucks, they will probably be expensive, so still fewer collectors than for regular AtB Quarters – but, the AtB Quarters, which are just now catching on, should give a boost to the pucks. Just one possible scenario that equals potential.

 

Chief, I'm still waitin' on that SP70 First Strike double-plus rare Choom Gang varietal... you see it in the lava

In the meantime, go ahead and crack a ~$250 slab ; save yourself some coin
http://www.ebay.com/itm/2012-P-America-the-Beautiful-5-oz-Hawaii-Volcanoes-NP-PCGS-SP69-FS-SeeDescriptio-/130833489995

fyi these things might be trading around ~$150. in the summertime, POS @ 22. Happy hunting!

 

Not the P's and some bullions. There are few enough of them that are mostly in collectors' hands, who will not sell at bullion prices unless they're desperate. I'd bet most collectors of these are not the desperate type.

 

I'm somewhat confused on one item, do some of these pucks have mint marks (P) and some do not? In some of the back and forth, it seems that the pucks selling for cheaper on eBay do not have mint marks. Are those P pucks, or are there ones that specifically include the P mint mark?

 

Gee Juan, that was January 13th, six weeks ago.

You are still avoiding the Hawaii "RAW" P-Pucks that are selling for $600, can you please find me a current "RAW'" for under $599.

You say these "might be selling for ~$150 in the summertime", key word..."might".
...can't wait until July to pull this thread up again.

 

Yes, its one POSSIBLE scenario.

My point wasn't about age though, it was about SERIES. Why are Jackie Robinson gold coins valuable? Why are 20th anniversary set ASE's valuable? Because they are the rarest issue IN A SERIES. Many others own OTHERS in the series, therefor making the lowest mintage in the series more desired.

Your argument is everyone will come rushing in to want THE WHOLE SERIES. This is a different argument completely. If I do not own any ATB pucks, why on earth are you assuming in the future I will want to own ANY ATB pucks? My analogy was some series are more popular than others, and a small, hard to store series like this one may NEVER have any demand increase for any of them. Arguing a whole series will become more popular in the future is a whole lot different than saying a new key to an already popular series will increase in price.

Is it possible? Yeah, I am just pointing out though that its a very different argument than asking why a key date of a very widely collected series is desired. You ramp up production and have the mint start making 200,000 of these every year, and I will GUARANTEE the low mintage earlier dates will go up in price. However, if they drop down to 5,000 a year of production, I would think that the earlier ones with relatively high mintages would become less valuable.

Just my opinion. Like all modern coins, these things seem to get "pumped and dumped", and most end up being worth less 5 years from now. That is why I am just skeptical. OTOH, if you like them, want to collect them, and they give you joy, go for it. I am glad you like them. Like I said in the other thread, I kind of like them too, but not at current overpromoted prices of the Hawaii issue.

 

The coins with P are the collectors version, they are handled with white gloves. They have a matte like finish.
The non P coins are the bullion version and are handled with not as much care. They have a proof look.

 

Somehow I missed that, so thanks for clearing it up.

 

True, many moderns get, “Pumped & Dumped” or at least fall back from the highs. But, at current mint selling price, for a little over melt, they’re a deal. At the current Hawaii price, long term I don’t think you’ll lose, as with a little increase in demand, with so few made, they’re a $1,000 + coin. As for the short term, yeah the price has risen quickly – unfortunately no one knows where the short term high is. Has this low mintage sell out brought back some collectors in addition to the speculators? Although I’m not adverse to taking short term profits, I prefer to hold long term if I believe the potential is there, so I'm not real concerned about the short term market in this case.

As for key date prices, true, usually the lowest minted coin gets a huge boost (i.e. JR), yet other similarly low mintages get a pretty good boost too (i.e. Smithsonian, Visitor Center, etc). So, if the mintages go lower, great, I’ll buy them from the mint and the prior ones may take a hit – although, I’m still above water on the higher mintage 2010’s.

Popularity of the series? IMO the AtB’s will be a hit the more they circulate and there are more issues to be found/bought. And yeah, I like the pucks, they are the best way to appreciate some great art that commemorates our parks. So, nothing but potential for all AtB related items.

 

We can agree to disagree. You see the volcanos as a potentially $1000+ coin, while I see people losing money in 5 years if they pay $600 today.

No way of knowing today.

 

Agreed. But, there are worse things to gamble on. I have many moderns that have done great and these pucks have better indicators than most of the other winners.

 

Gimmicky. With book or without. Special packaging or not. Vapor-blown, or not. Slabbed First Strike, Early Release, Signed by the stand-in Mint Director's mom, yada-yada or not.
Pucks are basically overpriced bullion at >$200., current POS.

Of course super-recent product from the US Mint - accompanied by hysterical promotion verbiage - will always impress CTers. That's no surprise. But check out current feeBay prices for crap that was just as exciting to Middle American coin collector rubes ~5-10 years ago.

The silliness of this discussion should be apparent: numismatic value for most moderns is on the wane. Seriously. Don't take my word for it. March yourself down to the LCS and see if THEY will give you $600. for that 2012 double-plus precious P-puck. They'll politely decline... then laugh, after you walk out of the store (red-faced, none-the-wiser?) I'm not saying you cannot refuse to sell for what-it's-really-worth, but will you feel cheated/abused on finally learning the truth from dealers?

I'm not so sure some people here "get it." I personally like the Hawaii design best of all - but that's TOTALLY irrelevant anyway. We are are talking VALUE here. Modern US numismatic Silver value is dodgy, dubious, highly speculative now. otoh, shop around for rock-bottom low prices and discounts after POS declines another -20% or so, and you shouldn't do too badly (I suppose.)

"$1,000+" ???! ..... lol TOO FUNNY, MAN!

If "rarity" should determine numismatic premium, then consider this:
1) ACTUAL mintage of the SpongeBob Squarepants 4 ozt Set was <2,000 (not 100,000.) Reportedly, only ~1,528 were made, ergo at least ~10x rarer than Hawaii-P pucks.
2) What's more, the remaining FBI-seized sets might get melted. Then this world-famous, super-popular brand item would become even rarer. Could numismatic value possibly decline?!!
3) On feeBay, the SpongeBob numismatic premium is currently (2-14-2013: $316.) .... ~150%. That's CHEAP!!! Or "expensive" as Detecto noted. Ahem! So which is it?
http://www.cointalk.com/t221823/#post1628241

Shouldn't ultra-rarity make that SpongeBob Ag product 10x (or >20x?!) more valuable than a 15,000 mintage Ag coin (representing a place few Americans could even find on a map)?

Think globally, here... 30+ million viewers? Annual $9 bln franchise?