Accuracy of the green sheet in relation to what you collect

Discussion in 'Paper Money' started by mpcusa, Feb 18, 2013.

  1. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    I recently attended a big show in California to get one of my Mpc,s graded and thought i would pick up a copy of the
    Dealers monthly green sheet for currency why i was there, first off this is the only publication that lists monthly prices for Mpc
    So you would think that it would be in tune with the TPG type grading but looking at the prices they quote i find this not
    To be the case, dont get me wrong the publication is very informative! articles and such are just fantastic!

    In addition there grading scale atleast for Mpc purposes is fair at best with to many in between grades not listed you are
    Left to really just guess at the value and the scale only goes to gem/65 !! which many notes in my collection are 68 or better
    Here,s a good example, i,am currently working on my Series 481 set and am now on the $1 dollar note current green sheet
    Is at $210 bid there is noway in **** that you could find a 65 for that price $350 would be more realistic 66,s sell for about
    $385-$395 all day long i could go through and quote 100,s of examples that are similar to this but i think you get my point!

    So my question is how accurate are they on what you collect, i would be interested in knowing :)
     
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  3. SteveInTampa

    SteveInTampa Always Learning

    My understanding is that the Greensheet is geared more towards dealers buying collections at wholesale prices.

    You are a collector buying single notes at retail.

    I was at a currency/coin show recently, and was asking a dealer to make me an offer on my collection of Franklin Halves, and he pulled out a Greysheet, and quoted me right off of that.
     
  4. Timewarp

    Timewarp Intrepid Traveler

    SteveInTampa, How did the dealers quote compare to other price sources? I'm trying to get an idea of what percentage they'll pay verses what you see in books,online,etc.
     
  5. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"


    The problem is the green sheet is not quoting real world prices in my opinion, but i can only speak about MPC as that is my specialty even between dealers you would still
    Find a fairly sizable gap, the only way around this would be notes that came fresh from TPG,S and even the bid prices again in my opinion would be to low
    But the problem really becomes an issue after a note has passed through a few hands as the note is sold over and over again and the price increases good luck
    Then with the green sheet!!
     
  6. lettow

    lettow Senior Member

    You are still missing the point. Greensheet BID prices are dealer-to-dealer wholesale prices. They are not retail prices. How many hands it has been through is irrelevent to a dealer buying at wholesale.
     
  7. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    The dealer has to get the items from somewhere, i,ve been at shows where i have sold some of my seconds and they always ask me will you sell at green sheet of course not
    Regardless of the green sheet is being used dealer to dealer it is used in alot of cases for buying from the average Joe!
     
  8. SteveInTampa

    SteveInTampa Always Learning

    Dealers use the Greensheet for buying notes, regardless of whether the note is from another dealer or the general public.
     
  9. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    That,s my point, if a dealer is trying to buy from the general public using this sheet then that,s a joke! as 9 out of 10 times what there offering will
    Not even come close to what the seller has invested.
     
  10. SteveInTampa

    SteveInTampa Always Learning

    That's not always true Rusty.

    Some people selling may have inherited currency collections and have absolutely nothing invested, and others may have acquired their collections decades ago at prices much lower than today's prices, and others yet may have compiled collections from circulation at face value.
     
  11. lettow

    lettow Senior Member

    A dealer does not care what you have invested. He cares about his profit margin. A dealer who buys a note for $350.00 that has a retail value of $350.00 will not be in business long.
     
  12. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    I think that would be more of an exception then the rule, this would be my opinion based on my own dealings
     
  13. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    That maybe true, if so he,s not going to have much product to sell because no one in there right mind is going to sell product at a loss, (well maybe some people) i guess if
    They need the money bad enough they will take the hit but it doesnt make alot of sense for dealers as i dont think they can count on this to butter there bread!!
     
  14. SteveInTampa

    SteveInTampa Always Learning

    I'm thinking that you (MPCUSA) have the Greensheet confused with a retail price guide, and your wondering why the prices are so low. Try to understand what we are saying.....I hear of collectors selling complete collections, and dealers are not snapping them up at retail prices, the dealers use the Greensheet as a guide for wholesale pricing when making offers. If the collector doesn't like the offer from the dealer he can sell his collection through an auction house. The bidders pay a 15 to 20% buyers premium, and the seller pays a 10 to 15% consignment fee.
     
  15. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    There,s no confusion here, the fact is that the green sheet is used for other purposes other then dealer to dealer transactions as i stated in one of my earlier posts i was
    Selling some notes and they pulled the green sheet out on me, guess what i,am not in the dealer to dealer realm, most of my notes are top pop even my seconds in most
    Cases are 67,s or 68,s which are not even listed!! (only goes to 65!) so how would you calculate the selling of a 69 with a population of 1 would find the very hard to
    Do using this guide..LOL :)
     
  16. SteveInTampa

    SteveInTampa Always Learning

    Most of the price guides I know of only go up to GEM-65.
     
  17. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    That would be incorrect, the green sheet covers everything else in (Sup Cu 67) only MPC are covered only up to Cu 65 dont ask me why!
     
  18. NorthKorea

    NorthKorea Dealer Member is a made up title...

    I really think you misunderstand the purpose behind the green/greysheets. Why would a dealer pay a premium to an individual collector for an item they can buy from another dealer at "sheets" price? If your seconds are top of population, why are you trying to sell to dealers at a show? You'd be better served consigning them to Great Collections, StacksBowers or Heritage, if they're high demand pieces. When you approach a dealer to sell, the assumption is that you're motivated to sell, especially at a show. If you went to an LCS, they might even offer you a fractional amount that's below "sheets" pricing.

    Although the "sheets" are intended for dealer-to-dealer transactions, that usually means the highest price a dealer is willing to pay, since there would be multiple dealers willing to sell at that price. If no dealers are willing to transact at a given price, the "sheets" would reflect higher dealer-to-dealer prices.

    More popular items would command a narrower spread, as there's a higher chance that the acquiring dealer will be able to sell the item quickly. As items decrease in popularity, the spread would widen, as the liquidating dealer may have been sitting on the inventory for quite some time.

    Before you say for a fourth time that you're not a dealer, you've already made that clear. Maybe you acquired your collection for full retail (or possibly a premium above full retail through an overzealous auction acquisition), or maybe you bought something that has seen its popularity or demand drop since the time you acquired it. In both scenarios, you'd be very unlikely to recoup your original investment, even selling directly to another collector.

    Here's an example:

    Buying <------------------------------------------> Selling
    Collector(B) / Dealer(SC) Price > Dealer(SD) Price
    Dealer(BD) Price > Dealer(BC) / Collector(S) Price

    In order for the Dealer to remain a profitable Dealer instead of an unprofitable Collector, they need to aggregate their liquidation prices to exceed their acquisition prices. The most likely way to do this is acquire items at the lowest possible price. Since the dealer knows that they can buy inventory at a given price (sheets ask), they have no reason to exceed that price. For the same reason, since the dealer knows that they can sell inventory at a given price (sheets bid), they have no reason to go below that price.

    The net result is a collector's purchase price will always exceed a dealer's purchase price at any given moment in time, and a dealer's selling price will always exceed a collector's selling price at any given moment in time. This is one reason why hobbies are given a non-business classification by the IRS. If hobbies were truly profitable, they'd be businesses. Essentially, the moment that a collector is able to consistently generate a profit through their hobby of choice, they become a dealer by definition in their business of expertise. It works the other way, too. The moment a dealer is able to consistently generate a loss through their business, they become a collector of their chosen hobby. (Yes, there are the 2/5 profitability rules in place, but that's why I said consistently.)

    Since you stated that you're not a dealer, it would behoove any dealer working with you to offer you an amount less than the sheet ask price for your items, since they should be able to acquire (without much exertion) an item of similar quality/rarity for the sheet ask price from a fellow dealer.

    Say you collect $1 modern notes and pay $5 for an uncirculated 2013 (or whatever the most recent series is) note. You then submit the note for grading and it comes back UNC67 (or whatever letters notes use) from PNG. You're now $4+grading fees sunk in the note above its intrinsic value. Now, instead of buying your note for your cost plus whatever profit you think you deserve, the dealer could go to a bank and order a $100 stack of $1 notes from the Federal Reserve, then sell the uncirculated notes for $5 each and deposit the others.

    In the case of buying your note, the dealer needs to wait for someone willing to pay your price plus another 30%-50% markup. By contrast, they could likely make the same profit by selling five or ten $1 uncirculated bills for $5 each.
     
  19. Teddydogno1

    Teddydogno1 Well-Known Member

    I posted a 25 cent Fractional yesterday that I recently purchased. By agreement of the board, it matched the XF condition stated by the seller and I was able to buy it for $28 delivered. The Greensheet on it is 28/31 (June 2014). Yet a Fractional collector said in my thread that it should be worth $15 - 25!! I thought since Greensheet was wholesale pricing that if I bought under that I was doing well.
     
  20. Owle

    Owle Junior Member

    The first listings on Greensheet are what? Colonials; have you ever tried to find Colonial notes at GS pricing? Good luck! Check auction figures on Heritage to try to get a fix on the market.
     
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