Will the new economy effect the future value of numismatics?

I echo this. Enjoy your hobby. Its a good hobby for the enjoyment level and comraderie EVEN IF YOU ASSUME YOUR COINS GO TO ZERO.

They already have to me. I don't sell, so the instant I buy something it has become valueless since I will never get any cash for it. I still love coin collecting and talking about coins.

 

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There's alot of logic, rationale, introspection, and common sense
in these replies. But I don't believe such traits are that strong in
people. If the wise old collector hobbles into the bourse to "distribute
his holdings" to the clamoring masses, then presumbly, he's acting
rationally by selling into a rally and taking strong profits. So then,
what are the clamoring masses? People are ruled by emotions and ego more than logic and rationale. That's the genius of registry sets.

Check this guy out. Lot of money for a fish.
http://japandailypress.com/single-b...rd-1-7-million-at-tsukiji-fish-market-0720908

 

As a general rule, items that were expensive in the past, tend to always hold their value and often times increase in value. Cars, clocks, guns, coins. There are some exceptions like beanie babies of course, but almost everybody saw that bubble coming except bored house wives and kids.

They say over the coming decades we will see the largest transfer of wealth in human history as the boomers pass away, and the younger generation, who are not all unemployed, will inherit the wealth. Some of it saved. Some from homes, even if the homes have lost value. Some from life insurance. Many from the boomer generation didnt spend their entire lives with multiple vehicles, cell phone bills, internet bills, new electronics, etc.. Many made more in the 70s and 80s than they do today. Many made alot and were able to retain alot just because there werent bills like there are now.

The next generation after the current younger generation I believe will be the ones who will be screwed in many ways.
Not only is there no longer any incentive to save anything at 0.05% interest, but people are unable to anyway. Our cell phone bill is like a car payment and we only have 2 phones. Its too hard to give it up now, but in 50 years thats over $100k out the window for phones alone! The younger generation wont be able to bail out their kids like their parents were able to bail them out. Thats what I see happening.
As far as the coin market, I believe its a small segment of the population already anyway. If the # of collectors were to double you could see prices quadruple. I believe it will remain a relatively solid market through thick and thin with some wild swings as segments considered fads, come and go. Weve already witnessed this.

If coins go to nothing, there will be many more new people diving in who shyed away before because of the high prices. But they would eventually drive prices back up competing with eachother.

I would love to have a 2006 gold age reverse proof. Theyre 3 grand and have been for a while. Thats high for me. If I come into some more money someday, I may pull the trigger. Right now though, I sit on the sidelines. What would that coin fall to before people would be physically fighting each other to get one? Could it get to melt value? $1680? Nope. No way it could fall that much. Buyers would snap it up long before that point. $2k? At that level Id be moved to buy one but nobodys going to let them go that cheap. Dollars dont go that far anymore and will continue to buy less. Its easy to be stuck in using 1992 as a reference point for purchasing things. Its just not reality.

Sent from my Motorola Electrify using Tapatalk 2

 

The few coin shows I have been to I have noticed the age group usually consists of middle aged people. Me being 19 years I am one of the "whipper snapppers". I have thought about introducing some of my friends to numismatics, but I am weary about telling people I collect coins for fear of becoming a target. I started this hobby at 18 years old and I plan to continue it forever. I hope in my lifetime of coin collecting I can contribute to the numismatic world by bringing new people into it.

 

Maybe you have to be old to appreciate something that's even older? I "collected" coins when I was younger by dropping wheat cents into a bucket. (See, I am able to learn... I've only been here on this board for a few weeks and I've already stopped calling them pennies...) Later I got a Whitman book and tried to fill it up. But I don't think I really appreciated what the older coins meant, either as a part of history or even simply as something of value, until I got older. And to be honest, it was the state quarters program that spiked my interest again.

What I found myself thinking about the other day was less about the future of coin collecting and more about the future of coins. Read any number of science fiction stories and they frequently talk about your "card" which includes your ID, your bank balance, your shoe size, and everything else. I know I personally hardly touch physical money even today, other than to pay my boys their allowance. Suppose in 50 years we don't have physical money any more, for anyone. Will there still be interest in (and therefore a market for) older coins?

 

Interesting thought, but my "retort" would be Roman Denari haven't circulated for 1700 years yet are highly popular today.

I think 100-500-1000 years from now even if they aren't producing coins any longer there will be collectors of them.

Just my opinion.

 

Talk to dealers. Who's BUYING PRODUCT not "just looking"? It's a mistake to assume that the median age attendee at a coin show is necessarily "the market."
The market (buyers/sellers, by avg $ volume) might be 10-years older.

Someone posted on CT years ago that "Most collectors are in late middle age, median 55 years." In fact, that data was from 2001! I'd puts a 2013 median age ~60 yo, say, for collectors w/ "investment value" in coins (Maybe older.)

Alot of "valuable" US coins coming to market as that generation passes. The glut should coincide w/ mortality stats for demographics in Robert Bilinski's 'A guide to coin investment" (1958 coin values were bogus; collector data was not!) or something more recent?

 

From my experience at shows I don't see that at all. From my perspective I see the "major buyers" as those in their 40's-early 50's, and a lot of "major sellers" in their early-late 60's. This is for collectible, higher value coins.

For PM, I see the buyers as typically younger, in their early 30's-late 40's. PM sellers usually are much older, like 60's-70's.

Both of these are just the "average heavy hitter" in that category. "The market" also includes younger people collecting less valuable coins on average.

Just my perspective from going to multitudes of shows over a number of years. I was at coin shows 4 times in the last 2 months and nothing has changed about these age ranges in my opinion.

I would be open to what other people see at shows, as I freely admit most shows I go to are in the upper midwest, and maybe its different in different geography.

 

young people buy on the internet (they are tech savvy)

 

Lucy, my 9 and 6 year olds are both young numis, and I'm taking them to the big show in Tucson tomorrow. They both have binders full of world and U.S. coins they've bought at LCS, and they regularly trade between each other. They prefer to take their allowances in Sacs, Ikes, Mercs, war nickels, etc. Next time we visit MI, we'll be sure to look you up. They will put the joy back in ya, guaranteed.

 

Are you kidding me? I don't think that's "savvy" for coins, art objects, etc.

But maybe you're right: younger buyers (Under 60s) are underrepresented at shows/the LCS because they buy online instead.

I wonder what %age here agree with that opinion.

 

kids seem to live online now-a-days social media and such

 

If coin collectors want to avoid Mongo candy-grams, it's being
coin savvy, not tech savvy that matters most.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...gIHQBA&usg=AFQjCNEZXbfpPIRXKMSa9h4iYBfrcFZaUg

 

I'm compelled to point out that this auction has now closed -- to my surprise, it did run to completion, without being pulled by eBay.

Final winning bid: US$ 480

Again, you were saying...?

 

Each passing generation of coin collectors is bailed out by the new collectors.. generation after generation, and this applies to more than just coins. Anyway, I think for the first time in the history of the US we can expect each generation to become a bit less well off... and I think the coin market will erode in step with this change. It will be slow,, generational, but it will happen I think.

 

you are not taking the state quarter kids into account. That cadre contains more than all collectors of US coins from 1792 to present combined.

 

That's a good point, although I haven't seen the numbers on paper relative to this comparative view. Regardless of the numbers on paper, the upshot remains valid,, assuming a significantly increased population of collectors in any upcoming generation, then you can expect the %'s of high dollar, mid dollar, low dollar collectors to increase in kind. This will buffer the fall imo, and may do it quite nicely... but over time I'm not sure it can hold. Just as long as it holds true for me !! that's what really matters ; )

 

But I don't see the "throughput". What I mean is most kids have hobbies while young, give them up, and then some come back to them. If they come back depends on the hobby. Not as many take up comic book or baseball card collecting as hobbies like coin collecting.

However, I simply do not believe the number of kids putting aside state quarters means we will have a large influx of serious coin collectors in a decade or two. If it did, it would have meant there would have been astronomical amounts of new collectors in the 70's and 80's who collected wheat cents and buffalo nickels from change in the 60's when coin collecting was very popular. I view the state quarter program similarly, meaning more will never come back to coin collecting as adults than usual.

Basically, I predict 10 to 20 years from now, assuming we still use coins, we will have about the same numbers of collectors as today. MAYBE the "average collector" will have relatively less money to spend on the hobby, I am not sure, but I think numbers of collectors will be similar.

 

The number of collectors will be much much larger and the will have smaller budgets. Those state quarter kids are looking at the red books and getting interested and if only one in twenty carry on into adulthood it would still comprise many times more collectors than there currently are. Many millions of kids diligently collected those quarters- that is not true of wheaties and buffaloes