Pop math...

Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by John Anthony, Jan 18, 2013.

  1. John Anthony

    John Anthony Ultracrepidarian

    Suppose I buy a coin in MS69 that has a pop of 100/10.

    Now. Mint set searchers (like myself) are going to continue submitting this coin in the future, but I'm guessing that for every 10 submissions, only one might return as a 70 - on average. That's just made up, but in general you're going to get many more 69s than 70s. So let's pretend I submitted 10 coins and got 9 69s and one 70. That would make the pop of my 69: 109/11.

    So this is really more of a question about speculation than collecting. If you're one grade below the top pop, statistically you're sitting in somewhat of a danger zone when it comes to valuation, right?

    And is it also fair to assume that the older the coins, the more stable the pops? In the Kennedy series, for instance, I'm wary of buying a coin such as the 07-D in SP69 with a pop of 238/1, because likely there will be a great number of submissions over the next few years that will inevitably increase that number of 238, perhaps double it.

    However, I'm less concerned about valuation when it comes to buying a 76-S SILVER in MS68 with a pop of 278/1, because collectors have had 37 years to pick over this issue, and if the numbers do change, it won't be by that much.

    Am I analyzing this correctly, or have I got it all wrong?
     
  2. Avatar

    Guest User Guest



    to hide this ad.
  3. green18

    green18 Unknown member Sweet on Commemorative Coins

    Makes sense John. Conditional rarity pukes (modern era)? Watch out for John........:)
     
  4. John Anthony

    John Anthony Ultracrepidarian

    I do actually collect coins. :p
     
  5. Tom B

    Tom B TomB Everywhere Else

    I like some of what you have written while for other points I have a different opinion. One thing left unwritten in an explicit sense, but that I think we agree upon, is that those who search for coins reject the great majority that are searched and so the populations published by the TPGs are weighted heavily to include only the best coins out there. I agree with the idea that older coins will more likely have a smaller chance of population explosion at the highest grades. This is due not only to searching, which might be been in full force for only a short time, but also to attrition as coins are lost, spent or otherwise mishandled over the years. The newer issues might see much larger population explosions at the extreme high end than the older coins.

    Where I disagree is that I do not think the undergrade is in a statistically more dangerous position than the pop top. This isn't so much because of the possibility of another coin added to the highest grade, but is more because of the possibility of a new high grade maximum being achieved for the issue. When it comes to coins in the 69/70 grade this is a moot point, but coins in the 68/69 grade or some other grade pair face the possibility of a newly made 70 becoming the single pop top. In my opinion, an event such as a single 70 being made would influence the value of the 69 moreso than the 68 since the value of the 68 is already reduced and the population quite large on a relative basis and also because the 69 graded coins would no longer be pop tops and might not have the Registry pressure that they currently enjoy. Lastly, something you did not mention is the stability of grading standards. These can and do change over time and can grealy affect the populations of the highest graded coins. I have lived in the silver WQ niche for many years and from 1986-1999 or so only a single WQ was ever graded MS68 by PCGS. However, from about 1999-2002 (the height of the bull market) the population soared from a single coin to perhaps 35-40 pieces. Part of it was due to searching and part was from increased submissions, but part was also from regrades of previously graded MS67 coins that now met the reduced standard for MS68. This is something we cannot control, but will affect prices dramatically.
     
  6. John Anthony

    John Anthony Ultracrepidarian

    Thanks Tom - the additional variable of changing standards is also worrisome. What set off this thread was a look at the SP issues starting in 05. A lot of them top off at 68 and 69, with only a handful of 70s in the whole lot. This is from the Acadia set...

    [​IMG]

    I'm thinking I should avoid this market for the time being because of the potentially volatility. I've got a long way to go in my set, so perhaps it's better to concentrate on the 60's and 70's for now, where the pops are more stable.
     
  7. cpm9ball

    cpm9ball CANNOT RE-MEMBER

    I've always respected your opinions, Tom, and perhaps you could lend your insight to this situation.......

    While at the FUN Show, I resubmitted a 2005-S KS Silver SQ, NGC PF70UCAM, because it is now listed in the 5th Edition of the CPG. Prior to that, it was just listed as a Mint Error, and as such, never showed up in the Census. As you can see in the graphic, there are already two listed, a 68UC and a 69UC. This will make mine a Top Pop for this particular variety. I'm curious to know what the overall effect of the 3534 non-variety 70UC's would have, if any, on this coin. In your opinion, should the variety stand alone without regard for the other 70's?


    [TR="class: VarietyRollup_Row"]
    [TD="class: dxgv"]

    [TR="class: ScoreTable_row"]
    [TD="class: firstCell dxgv"] [​IMG]2005 S SILVER[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"]25C[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"]KANSAS[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"]PFUC[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"] Shop[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"] [​IMG][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"]10167[/TD]
    [TD="class: firstGradeCell dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"]1[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"]1[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"]38[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"]6591[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"]3534[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: VarietyRollup_Row"]
    [TD="class: firstCell dxgv"] 2005 S SILVER[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"]25C[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"]KANSAS[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"]PFUC[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"] Shop[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"] [​IMG][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"]10165[/TD]
    [TD="class: firstGradeCell dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"]1[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"]1[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"]37[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"]6590[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"]3534[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: VarietyRollup_Altrow"]
    [TD="class: firstCell dxgv"] 2005 S SILVER[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"]25C[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"]KANSAS - DENTED BISON[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"]PFUC[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"] Shop[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"] [​IMG][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"]2[/TD]
    [TD="class: firstGradeCell dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"]1[/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"]1[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: firstGradeCell dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR="class: VarietyRollup_Altrow"]
    [TD="class: firstCell dxgv"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: firstGradeCell dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [TD="class: dxgv, align: right"][/TD]
    [/TR]
    Thanks,

    Chris
     
  8. John Anthony

    John Anthony Ultracrepidarian

    Chris, you know I'm just a beginner in the registry, so maybe my opinion is meaningless to an experienced collector like yourself, but here it is for what it's worth.

    At PCGS, you can use varieties to fill slots in a basic set, but it obviously doesn't work the other way around. There's no need for me to pay a premium for a variety to fill a slot in my set, and the varieties ALWAYS come with premiums. On the other hand, a variety collector can only fill his slots with specific coins.

    So perhaps a pop increase in non-variety issues would only minimally affect the value of the variety.
     
  9. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    In my view, the danger is in the top pop coin, not the second tier. Look at the premiums in your example John. Right now your "made up" example is 100/10 for a 69. Lets make up that a 69 is worth $40, and a 70 is worth $200. Now, maybe there are 25 people who are really strong players in the registry wars for this series. Currently they pay very strong prices for the 70 because they wish to have the highest registry. I would say this strength in pricing will continue while there are still registry owners competing to own a 70. What happens if people start sending more of these in and a 26th 70 is slabbed? If there are only 25 strong registry participants, who wants to pay such a premium for the 26th 70? What about the 40th 70 slabbed, the 100th?

    That is the danger in my eye. With a modern 70 the strength of large premiums really is set by a certain segment of collectors, and if they ever stop or more 70's are slabbed than needed by this group, I see premiums crashing. YES, OTOH if more people join up to registry sets, this math can continue, I am not saying it cannot.

    I also support those who say changing grading standards are a huge risk. What if you buy a 70 today for $200 but in a few years the TPG come out with a new slab since they admit older slabs have overgraded coins, you resubmit but it comes back a 69? What just happened to your premium? Or similarly what if the game changes and the coin has to be a 70 CAC in order to be top pop? What if your 70 cannot get the bean?


    Just my opinion on the subject. I think 69's are extremely nice coins undervalued relative to 70's, though if I bought a modern I wouldn't have it slabbed at all. Most come from the mint in nice grade nowadays, why add costs? Use the money you save from TPG to buy more coins. :)

    Chris
     
  10. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator


    But are the pops more stable ? Let me show what happened in just 1 year's time. And not just to Kennedy halves.



    Lincoln Memorial -


    NGC


    MS69 Red pop at the end of 2003 - 16
    MS69 Red pop at the end of 2004 - 45 - increase of roughly 300%
    MS70 Red pop at the end of 2003 - 0
    MS70 Re dpop at the end of 2004 - 0
    PF69 DCAM pop at the end of 2003 - 7,875
    PF69 DCAM pop at the end of 2004 - 20,501 - increase of 260%
    PF70 DCAM pop at the end of 2003 - 607
    PF70 DCAM pop at the end of 2004 - 1,581 - increase of 260%


    PCGS


    MS69 Red pop at the end of 2003 - 99
    MS69 Red pop at the end of 2004 - 671 - increase of almost 700%
    MS70 Red pop at the end of 2003 - 0
    MS70 Red pop at the end of 2004 - 0
    PF69 DCAM pop at the end of 2003 - 10,092
    PF69 DCAM pop at the end of 2004 - 45,242 - increase of approx 400%
    PF70 DCAM pop at the end of 2003 - 455
    PF79 DCAM pop at the end of 2004 - 873 - increase of approx 200%




    Jefferson nickels (post war)


    NGC


    MS69 pop at the end of 2003 - 0
    MS69 pop at the end of 2004 - 0
    MS70 pop at the end of 2003 - 0
    MS70 pop at the end of 2004 - 0
    PF69 pop at the end of 2003 - 8,740
    PF69 pop at the end of 2004 - 26,213 - increase of 300%
    PF70 pop at the end of 2003 - 502
    PF70 pop at the end of 2004 - 2,187 - increase of 400%


    PCGS


    MS69 pop at the end of 2003 - 700
    MS69 pop at the end of 2004 - 1,077 - increase of 50%
    MS70 pop at the end of 2003 - 72
    MS70 pop at the end of 2004 - 79 - neglible increase
    PF69 pop at the end of 2003 - 8,899
    PF69 pop at the end pf 2004 - 67,070 - increase of 750%
    PF70 pop at the end of 2003 - 223
    PF70 pop at the end of 2004 - 928 - increase of 400%




    Roosevelt dimes


    NGC


    MS69 pop at the end of 2003 - 2
    MS69 pop at the end of 2004 - 2
    MS70 pop at the end of 2003 - 0
    MS70 pop at the end of 2004 - 0
    PF69 DCAM pop at the end of 2003 - 8,611
    PF69 DCAM pop at the end of 2004 - 21,110 - increase of 245%
    PF70 DCAM pop at the end of 2003 - 1,161
    PF70 DCAM pop at the end of 2004 - 3,426 - increase of 295%


    PCGS


    MS69 pop at the end of 2003 - 13
    MS69 pop at the end of 2004 - 18 - increase of 30%
    MS70 pop at the end of 2003 - 0
    MS70 pop at the end of 2004 - 0
    PF69 DCAM pop at the end of 2003 - 13,709
    PF69 DCAM pop at the end of 2004 - 70,114 - increase of 500%
    PF70 DCAM pop at the end of 2003 - 489
    PF70 DCAM pop at the end of 2004 - 1,639 - increase of 335%




    Washington quarters


    NGC


    MS69 pop at the end of 2003 - 0
    MS69 pop at the end of 2004 - 0
    MS70 pop at the end of 2003 - 0
    MS70 pop at the end of 2004 - 0
    PF69 DCAM pop at the end of 2003 - 7,460
    PF69 DCAM pop at the end of 2004 - 68,647 - increase of 920%
    PF70 DCAM pop at the end of 2003 - 137
    PF70 DCAM pop at the end of 2004 - 22,228 - increase of 1600%


    PCGS


    MS69 pop at the end of 2003 - 18
    MS69 pop at the end of 2004 - 309 - increase of 1700%
    MS70 pop at the end of 2003 - 0
    MS70 pop at the end of 2004 - 0
    PF69 DCAM pop at the end of 2003 - 85,340
    PF69 DCAM pop at the end of 2004 - 238,422 - increase of 280%
    PF70 DCAM pop at the end of 2003 - 824
    PF70 DCAM pop at the end of 2004 - 3,759 - increase of 450%




    Kennedy half


    NGC


    MS69 pop at the end of 2003 - 0
    MS69 pop at the end of 2004 - 1
    MS70 pop at the end of 2003 - 0
    MS70 pop at the end of 2004 - 0
    PF69 DCAM pop at the end of 2003 - 14,431
    PF69 DCAM pop at the end of 2004 - 29,375 - increase of 200%
    PF70 DCAM pop at the end of 2003 - 568
    PF70 DCAM pop at the end of 2004 - 1,555 - increase of 270%


    PCGS


    MS69 pop at the end of 2003 - 759
    MS69 pop at the end of 2004 - 1,074 - increase of 40%
    MS70 pop at the end of 2003 - 134
    MS70 pop at the end of 2004 - 141 - neglible increase
    PF69 DCAM pop at the end of 2003 - 29,181
    PF69 DCAM pop at the end of 2004 - 96,323 - increase of 330%
    PF70 DCAM pop at the end of 2003 - 1,460
    PF70 DCAM pop at the end of 2004 - 2,214 - increase of 65%
     
  11. John Anthony

    John Anthony Ultracrepidarian

    @Doug: thanks for those numbers. That sheds a different light on the matter altogether. I suppose there are so many millions of moderns out there that you simply can't predict the pops to any degree of accuracy.

    @Chris(medoraman): I agree with you wholeheartedly. I've collected three PR70DCAMS so far and the most expensive one cost $50.70. I wouldn't want to spend 200 on a high-grade registry coin even if someone could guarantee that its pop wouldn't substantially increase.

    I'm in the stage of formulating a balanced collecting strategy, hence this thread. In fact, I think I'll limit myself to $50 purchases for the registry set, unless a coin exhibits additional positive characteristics BESIDES temporary conditional rarity: toning, or cameo, etc. I've also got a collection of raw coins going into an album, and I'm doing quite a bit of mint set hunting, and those endeavors require some of the budget as well.
     
  12. beef1020

    beef1020 Junior Member

    I agree with Chris on the the top pop coins having more downside due to changes in supply and demand.

    Another point to consider on the top population coins. How many mistakes do you think the grading companies make, specifically how many 69 coins do you think actually get graded as 70, 1 in 10, 1 in 100, 1 in 1000, they are not perfect. Given some error rate above zero, and assuming there is a large premium between 69 and 70, people will continue to re-submit their 69s in the hopes of getting it into a 70 holder. That price premium, and the subjective nature of grading will lead to more and more 70s over time. Note, this does not take into account any downside due to future loosening of grading standards.
     
  13. 19Lyds

    19Lyds Member of the United States of Confusion

    37 Years to search for a 1976-S?

    I don't think so since MS grading has only been around since the TPG's were formed and some of those TPG's weren't grading what was considered "modern" coins.

    Statistically, the odd's of getting another MS69 graded for the 1976-S Silver Kennedy is directly related to the sale of the first one. In other words, as coin prices go up (or get published), so does the effort to find one of your own and these were literally made by the millions with a high probability that there is still a million or two which have NOT been looked at.

    It takes "incentive" for submitters to submit these things, especially in bulk where grading "appears" to be less stringent, and nothing is better motivation than good old fashioned money!
     
  14. John Anthony

    John Anthony Ultracrepidarian

    I wonder what the market trends for the top pops are. I see a lot of dealers asking stupid money for them and they sit on the shelf. But when they auctioned with low opening bids, they move, and the hammer prices I've seen are WAY below PCGS list.
     
  15. John Anthony

    John Anthony Ultracrepidarian

    plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

    I recently read this in Bower's History of United States Coinage:



     
  16. 19Lyds

    19Lyds Member of the United States of Confusion

    Price Gude values are just what the title states: A Guide

    The relationship of what sells at "price guide value" and what does not is related to:

    1. The popularity of the coin
    2. The number of bidders participating in the auction
    3. The sincerity of those bidders

    I've seen "proce guide" coins with a value of $250 sell for $12. Why? Simple. The market wave governing the coin had come and gone and everybody that wanted one, had one. The speculation bubble had been broken AND since there were no more sales of the piece, the price guides could not be updated.

    Now the question is: Should the $12 sale of a $250 coin "really" be allowed to affect the price guides?

    If you answer Yes, then I know of a fella that purchased a 1941 Proof Set for $59 on eBay and that sale should be factored into the overall value of a 1941 Proof Set. Granted, the seller labeled it as a "Mint Set" but the photo's clearly show a "Proof Set". Nobody was really looking.

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/1941-U-S-Mint-Set-Walking-Liberty-Very-Good-Condition-/200720687123?_trksid=p2047675.l2557&ssPageName=STRK%3AMEWNX%3AIT&nma=true&si=ARoeCthNR52%252FzPWYtdfg%252BrObcL8%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc
     
  17. John Anthony

    John Anthony Ultracrepidarian

    Were you the buyer? If so, kudos!!
     
  18. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    True, this is why I do not envy those who put together any price guide. Anything they say is "wrong". Like it or not we are in collectibles, the price is what a buyer and seller agree to. Nothing more or less. If two buyers get into a competition they can "overpay", or if a seller is unlucky or misidentifies their product they can lose big time.

    Price guides are simply generalities to get you "into the ballpark" MOST of the time ASSUMING knowledgable buyers and sellers.

    Would I LOVE to have a firm guide to know what to pay? You darn tootin, so would everyone else, but they do not, can not exist. Everyone WANTS one, that is why so many are printed/published, but in the end of the day they physically cannot exist due to:

    1. Every coin is unique
    2. Every seller sells to different client bases, and provide different levels of service
    3. Every buyer uys at differeing venues
    4. Every sale is different, different circumstances, different needs of the buyer and seller, different skill levels of each, etc.

    As soon as you know this, but know that with research and your own personal KNOWLEDGE you can be a much more informed consumer and get better deals than others with effort, the better any collector will be.
     
  19. John Anthony

    John Anthony Ultracrepidarian

    I understand the caveats with price guides. I'm not suggesting they're worth very much. But there seems to be a glut of PR70DCAMs in the Kennedy series, driving the prices down. Perhaps it has to do with the pop explosion trends Doug posted. I look at the sale histories over at TT, and the prices are generally falling, by wide margins sometimes. I suppose that's a good thing for a new registry collector like myself, but I'd like to avoid being on the losing end of that trend years down the line.
     
  20. beef1020

    beef1020 Junior Member

    That trend in modern coins is directly caused by the registry game people play. If you don't want to be on the wrong end, don't play.

    In general, the huge premium difference in one grade of MS for coins where millions of mint state examples exist is just bizarre. As long as the premium exists, people will continue to re-submit their coins and upgrade them, which will crush the premium at that level. This is the process that drives grade inflation at the third party graders.
     
  21. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    That's easy enough to do, don't buy them.
     
Draft saved Draft deleted

Share This Page