Will the new economy effect the future value of numismatics?

There are a lot of people out there that now hoard silver coins for their melt value because of fear for the fall of the dollar. I think there will be a decent amount of people out there who will turn into numanistic collectors after hoarding the silver just because they will be exposed to coins more. I can speak for myself in that regard. I don't hoard silver because I worry about the dollar falling, I do it because it is a fun hobby for me and I rather collect it than throw my money in a useless savings account that makes no interest. Lately I have been buying some coins for appeal rather than the price of the PM

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

Right. What happened with these markets? Did Honus Wagner or Superman #1 collapse? No, it was the massively overproduced modern cards and comics.

 

The amount of baseball cards that were pumped out in the early 90's was ridiculous. They aren't even worth pennies and the amount products just destroyed any chance of thm being worth anything. The late 80's were bad too, but from 90-93 all the companies just created garbage.

 

The crux of the problem you bring up is that politicians on both sides of the aisle took payoffs and gave tax breaks to corporations to move their manufacturing overseas. A nation cannot continue longterm to sustain it's economy without basic manufacturing. Not only did a lot of people lose jobs - affecting the economy, but also quality control was lost. That is why I have a strong preference for buying stuff made in America - because if I have a problem with something I want to be able to contact the source - and quite frankly - slowly and surely - I am noticing more and more stuff like tools being manufactured and sold here. It is pretty good with hand tools, but power tools - well I must admit I am still using radial saws, heavy duty sanders that were my grandfather's 1960s era Craftsman tools.

 

Not a word in that statement there that I do not agree with. So true! When manufacturing is sent over seas we just set ourselves up for failure more each day.

 

I think you have to put the poor economy into perspective. Even though things are bad now for more people than usual, the vast majority of Americans are still doing OK. Eight percent unemployment means 92 percent of people are working. Right now many people are cutting back on spending because they are paying down debt or they are uncertain about the future, but that doesn't mean they're all going to sell their collections and start stockpiling canned food. So while we as a whole are less prosperous now than in some other periods, it's not the Great Depression where 1 in 3 is out of work.

 

Also not taken into account is the percentage of the 8% of unemployed that do not want to work or just want to have money handed to them from the government.

 

You know i like your posts, but that graph needs a MAJOR disclosure. That is a very heavily weighted to the high end, US only, chart. Ancients and most world coins in my experience are not similar.

 

The core of the numismatic market hasn't fluctuated that much. That core is made up of upper low end to lower high end coins and by people who have continued to be able to collect during most economic situations. The fact that most of us here are still buying on a regular basis means that core group is us. So no, I don't see anything changing, granted a full blown 1930's style depression hits. And, for most of us, these small, insignificant ripples in the gateway coins like Lincolns and Morgans only mean we can buy cheap during the troughs, not panic because we lost 3 cents on the dollar.
Guy

 

The non-core group are all the HSN shoppers and the state quarter collectors.

 

It's misleading to look at (one or a few) 'monster auctions' and presume that's market trend. Sure, it's a very small but important niche .. but the group we're discussing is 'most collectors' or 'the middle market.' The base, as such. For the same reason, I totally discount the recent Gerhard Richter sale and the fact his paintings have exploded in value since Oct 2011 ($16.5 mln >> $34 mln.) Why? The highest price ever paid for a work by a living artist is not indicative of 'the art market' - it's an outlier. Look at the broader art mkt instead, or Main Street galleries: that's dismal.

Millions of average collectors were/will never be able to afford a Richter painting or 1913 Liberty Head nickel. It's their collections 'value' that must be ascertained here: that's what the OP is about. I foresee most US coins following US collectibles way, way down (think how Beanie Babies collapsed, for some idea) - we're nowhere near the bottom. And future Chinese collectors really won't want old US pennies!

The decline has just begun: 2008-12 was just the first stage in the Supercycle Deflationary Crash. No, most Boomers haven't sold their RE, stocks or coins - yet. That will occur in the near future, the ultimate (or penultimate) stage of the liquidation. Wait until the police/fire fighter/state/muni workers get their salaries slashed; pensions quartered. How many 'serious' coin collectors live off a pension? Maybe that's the next shoe to drop, circa 2017.

Also, suppose the nominal Dollar #s for middle-mkt collections may be much higher than now (because of inflation) but also >60% lower in real, adjusted terms. Many might not have to sell, but when they croak their heirs probably will. As I said: watch the demographics.

The USA is awash in junk, detritus of the American Century. That's not getting more valuable either as the next gen moves to 'life, online.' Sorry folks.

 

Wide range of opinions here! Depending on how we all vote, income will shift to the middle class or the wealthy. This is nothing new and this cycle will continue. So, is the middle class doomed? Heck no, we'll be back.

As for which coins "pay the price" for this economic rollercoaster, I'm sitting on significant gains and have realized significant profits from moderns, yet my classic keys are down 25% since 2008.

The state quarter collectors are the next generation of collectors.

 

You can't compare coins to beanie babies. Beanie babies are a stupid fad; coins are a collectible that has been popular for hundreds of years with real history and provenance. You'll never own a Beanie Baby that was carried by a soldier in the American Revolution, but you can own a coin that was.

 

In my eyes, you sure as heck can. Demonstrate to me the differences between common, modern "first day of issue, ms70 coins" and a beanie baby.

Certain segments of the coin market are very much akin to beanie babies and sports cards.

Btw for clarity i am talking slabbed ase and the like, not attacking all modern issues.

 

Yep, or paying huge premiums for the way coins are packaged. For example, $25 bags of state quarters that I sold on eBay for $900 each - Beanie Babies definitely came to mind, when you could get the same quarters for $10/roll - just a canvas Beanie Baby stuffed with common quarters.

 

In what month and year? Thanks.

 

Probably first year issue or the 2004 Wisconsin group that had the low/high leaf varieties.

 

Huh?