1945P Jeff 5c NGC MS67* What do you think?

Thanks for the plug Greg!

@rodeoclown, the coin in the link is a registry quality coin and the 45-P is the toughest war nickel to find in MS67. It bears no comparison to what you can find raw & cheap.

@rickmp, the 1945-P has become a conundrum over the last few years in MS67. Those that don't truly understand the market see what has happened and have grossly over priced their coins. Let me show you what I mean by referencing some past auction archives for PCGS MS67 1945-P Jefferson Nickels.

The March 2010 Baltimore Auction Lot #577. 1945-P Jefferson Nickel. MS-67 (PCGS). $3,738



The August 2010 Boston Rarities Sale Lot #325. 1945-P Jefferson Nickel. MS-67 (PCGS). $1,668



The January 2011 Tampa Bay Rarities Sale Lot #328. 1945-P Jefferson Nickel. MS-67 (PCGS). $1,726



The total PCGS population for the 1945-P Jefferson Nickel MS67 is 36/0. Within that group, there are a number of coins that have similar toning to the coins shown above. Foregoing the discussion about the originality of the toning of these coins, the first one sold in the March 2010 Baltimore Sale and basically set the market for these coins. Each time one of these rainbow toned PCGS 45-P's hit the market, they drive moon money prices. At one point, the PCGS Price Guide for these coins was over $1,500 due to the effect of auction prices of these rainbow toned coins. A member of the PCGS forum actually contacted PCGS and asked them to reduce the Price Guide and soon thereafter it dropped below $1,000 again. Anyway, now everytime one of these coins is auctioned, there is significant auction history to show that the coins are worth $1,500-$2,000 and that is what they have been achieving. One sold for $1,610 on 8/13/2011 but I don't have a link to the auction. The most recent was this one sold in the latest Heritage auction.

2012 April 18-22 US Coins & Platinum Night CSNS Signature Auction- Schaumburg #1169 Lot 3700 1945-P 5C MS67 PCGS $1,380



I know this is getting long, but the result is that because of these coins, anytime someone sees a rainbow toned MS67 1945-P Jefferson Nickel, they want to cash in and get a price similar to the coins listed above. The problem is that NGC has different standards with relation to what constitutes an MS67 Jefferson Nickel. The population reports bear out this fact. While the PCGS population of the 1945-P MS67 is 36/0, the NGC population is 340/2 which is almost 10X the number of PCGS. This tells us that the majority of the NGC MS67's if submitted to PCGS would actually end up in an MS66 holder. If that were to happen, there is no way the coin would drive a price tag anywhere near $1,000.

So, the real trick in evaluating an MS67 NGC 1945-P Jefferson Nickel is to be able to predict if the coin would cross into a PCGS MS67 holder. The coin in question has some problems that would most likely keep it out of a PCGS MS67 holder. The spot of Monticello is one, and the mark on Jeff's collar is another.

My opinion of that coin is that it meets the standards for an NGC MS67 but only a PCGS MS66. Furthermore, based on the apparent toning in the photos and the assigned star designation, it is probably a very attractive coin and worth a premium to an untoned NGC MS67. Of the 340 NGC MS67's, only 9 have been awarded the star designation. So how much is the coin in question worth? Numismedia wholesale lists the 1945-P NGC MS67 @ $200 and lustrous untoned examples achieve that price. I would say that the coin in question is worth a few multiples of Numismedia Wholesale, between $400-$600 or roughly half of the seller's asking price. This seller has a very optimistic price but does not have the photographic skill to even show the potential buyer what they are getting. The coin needs professional photographs in order to realize the price listed. Even though there is a return policy in place, my advice would be not to purchase that coin at that price.

FWIW, I paid $437 for my 1945-P NGC MS67* in 2008. Like the coin in question, mine would not cross to PCGS.

 

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Thank you, Lehigh.
I have become enamored of war nickels and would like to put together a set of the best I can afford. You've given some very good information.
Nice coins on your site, too!

 

Buttocks I say. All of these start out raw before they're placed in a slab with a grade slapped on them. So yeah, it might be harder to find one already graded but there are likely plenty of possibilities still out there that carry the same potential as this one and likely cheaper, even graded just as others have pointed out at a more reasonable price. There's what 119 Million of these 1945 P's minted? I'd say the chances of finding one still raw at a high grade is still very likely.

Cheers!

 

Don't try to put any emotion with words on a screen. That's just the first thing that came to mind when I saw the price tag in the eBay auction you linked to. It was definitely not meant to offend or upset anyone. :thumb:

 

Well there is no doubt that you can find one already graded for a cheaper price if you wait long enough. But you simply are not going to find a rainbow toned MS67 45-P raw. The current population is 9/0 and they mostly come from album collections. But hey, good luck with your search!

 

Not everyone collects or pays premiums for toned coins either. Although it's not common, I'm sure someone out there is sitting on some raw 45-P that is or could likely be MS67 grade. Saying you can't find one throws all the burden on you with such claims.

Statements like that is like claiming earth has the the only living organic things in the universe. :yes:

 

Yes there are probably several MS67 45-P's residing in dancso's with beautiful toning as we speak. How do you propose those coins will get from them to you without first being snagged by someone like me or any of the various extra terrestrial numismatists?


Lloyd: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
Mary: I'd say more like one out of a million.
[pause]
Lloyd: So you're telling me there's a chance... *YEAH!*

 

Or me!

 

Or me. I'm putting together my raw uncirculated Jefferson set, I think I only need 14-15 more to complete it, well to date of course. Mine's a little tougher though, I'm making sure all the Nickels have at least 3 steps or more.

 

Good to see Lehigh respond to this thread, he seems to be one of the best for toned coins and seems to know this nitch market better than most. Even if the coin was priced right it would not be a coin I would buy due to the spot on the reverse I'd hold tight and find another.

 

Cool, let's see the 67's you have so far!

 

I don't know how it got a star, and as others have said that spot is too prominent. I would pass, even for much less.