The Growing Chinese Market and its impact on coin prices

http://www.coinweek.com/news/auctio...onterio-sells-over-10-5-million-in-hong-kong/

IRVINE, Calif. – Stack’s Bowers and Ponterio conducted its April 2012 Hong Kong sale last week at the Mira Hotel in Kowloon. Drawing huge crowds of bidders, the four day auction event realized an impressive total of $10,546,612. In three catalogs, the sale covered everything from Chinese coins and provincial issues to modern Chinese coins and paper money. The sale spotlighted important collections such as the Wa She Wong Collection, Part III, the Frank Robinson Collection, Part II, the Dr. John Abner Snell Collection, Duplicates from the American Numismatic Society Museum Collection, the Neil Nelson Collection and more.

 

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An investment position in Chinese coins might be a smart thing given the Chinese people's increasingly disposable income.

 

That's what I thought 12 years ago when I started buying them. Now I am in a pickle as to whether hold on to them, (my preferred position), or take profits. I know that given their prices I will never replace any coins I would sell.

Btw, not trying to say how smart I was. If I were, I would have bought modern chinese versus the ancient ones I bought. I missed on that, thinking the ancients would be appreciating more, but moderns are the ones the smart money invested in.

 

Any thoughts on causing demand in U.S./Canadian coinage via Chinese interest?

 

They seem to like the American coins

 

When they start pulling Mrgans in large numbers from the Market, then you will see a shift.

 

A lot of moderns are irresistable to sell. When profits average a few thousand percent the natural impulse is to sell. Indeed, I'd even recommend selling many of the moderns in which you have deep profits in favor of moderns that aren't appreciated yet. One of these days people will wake up and discover that the circulating moderns are rare. They are so rare that even poor examples in poor condition are difficult to locate. I'd spend some profits from silver and gold to buy the shoe leather to chase down the aluminum and base metal coins.

Don't forget Taiwan too. These coins are considered extremely common and some are but there are others that are only common because no demand at all exists. It might be many years but these coins will be in very high demand as well.

I especially like the early '60's aluminum in superb Gem just because it is available with effort. Everything up to '73 tends to be elusive. After '73 availability is spotty.

It's not impossible the silver and gold moderns can go even higher but it's usually best to not be overly greedy.

 

Great, we can sell them back their
1873 Morgans. Cast to exact specifications.
China's rising living standards can only go
so far before smaller countries take over
their production one sector at a time.

 

Hello

If I remember correctly, there are over 4 billion Chinese so that it is inevitable for that market to put pressure on prices. In the long term, I think you will see less counterfeiting of coins from China. the common pattern for a growing underdeveloped economy is to have bootlegging, counterfeiting , and copyright and patent violations and then for a change as they develop and their national interests change. This was true for the early US, Italy, Japan and now China.

Amanda

 

Wow.

http://www.google.com/search?q=china+population

 

good to see Israel is 97th, and far larger than Pitcairn Islands

 

http://www.government.pn/shop/

 

BTW - that is before China invades Afghanistan and Siberia

 

No, they're smarter than that.........

 

Would it be illegal (by WHICH countries' law) to counterfeit these & then sell them on eBay, or China's version of eBay?

 

I was joking about the 1873 Morgans. They
didn't start striking them until 1878. Still, I
remember someone trying to sell them, from
China. And yes, in the U.S intent to defraud is
illegal.

 

Hello

In my experience, which is extensive with collectibles and such, items that are currently produced and markets have far greater selling prices items which are entirely historical. That is one of the reasons why US coins out cost nearly anything else. demand comes from what is familiar.

Amanda

 

Coins from Hong Kong have been doing quite well in recent years too. Very few of these are very tough even in superb gem but none are extremely common. They've sat in dealer inventories and rolls for years because there was no demand. Now with demand increasing the pre-'71 moderns have been enjoying some pretty healthy annual gains. Even a few of the post-'71 issues are doing reasonably well. I like later issue cu/ ni in nice gem condition when it can be found at anything similar to market price. It's hard to believe that this stuff is really worth only peanuts if it's actually going to be collected. Mintages were in the 5 to 50 million range but circulation was very extensive. Generally there's little premium for lower mintages suggesting they are not actively collected and/ or they were saved in equal numbers. In this case I lean toward thinking they were saved in equal numbers since there are some "collector prices" in later issues which suggests there weren't very many saved. Even if I'm wrong and there are a million of everything, a million isn't very many for a market of this potential size. While the coins do come very nice, choice and superb Gems are still the exception and picking them up for a few dollars or less seems like a bargain.

I like the older moderns but can never suggest someone buy something that has already had significant price gains. They're great to collect even though they are all short series. There are some varieties among these and I'm always tempted by extremely high grade when there's little or no premium. Now days most of these will cost 20 or $30 even with no premium at all. These older coins come nice as well though there tend to be more worn die strikes.

There's a good chance the Chinese collectors will branch out into other coins as they become more sophisticated. They'll probably prefer Far-East and the like at least initially. This leads me to think in terms of Vietnan, Tibet, Nepalese, Soviet, North Korean and even Singapore coinage. This last one is a real darkhorse that will charge someday. This is the wealthiest country on earth and their coins are among the most attractive, tend to be well made, and were not saved extremely heavily. There are scarcer issues that seem to have eluded collectors (don't bet on this). Attrition is high. There probably won't be any or many truly rare Singaporean coins but numerous issues with fewer than 50,000 survivors in any grade with relatively few Uncs. Don't overpay for these. They are common now and there's little demand. This is the type of area I'd suggest newbies collect.

It's a big world and the middle class is exploding in many places. While modern circulating rarities in the Chinese sphere are unusual there are some places that modern rarities will be the rule rather than the exception.

 

What about collecting Asian coins with
dragons as a topical rather than specific
countries? Asians and Westerners seem
to like them.

 

The way collectors collect is undergoing some change as well. Where it wasa once primarily date and mint mark collecting there are lots of theme and type collectors now. This, too, can open up whole new vistas of demand. For instance something like a queen Elizabeth type set might include coins from all over the world. Some might want a single representative sample of each type in gem or almost any grade. How this set is defined by the individual determines what's included. There are near endless options. Theme collecting is more popular than ever due to the greatly increased types of coins being issued each year (primarily for collectors). Here, too, possiblilities are endless. One can collect by material (like aluminum) or shape.

As prices increase the demand will normally drop as demand will flow to lower grades or different coins altogether. But the thing with moderns is that there are so many coins that are rare in unc and higher grades. Old coins were saved in similar numbers each year despite mintages. This means some of the low mintages were saved in large percentages. Many moderns just weren't saved at all because they were base metal and too common with their astronomical mintages. Most were poor quality as well. A lot of the post-WW II coins circulated for decades and then the survivors were melted. Nice attractive Uncs can be scarce and probably rare.