(Toning) The Future of Coins?

And you are a perfect owner of toned coins sir. You collect what you like, what you afford, and what makes you happy. More power to you. You are very right, to each his own.

Btw Cazkaboom, there has always been a market for toned coins, but I will differentiate here for clarity. Many newcomers believe that a lot of toned coins sell because of the color. Just because of the color may be somewhat newer, but original, lustrous surfaces are more apt to tone than impaired surfaces. Since this is true, many times a toned coin is also a superlative condition, original lustrous surface coin.

I see no problem whatsoever for original, lustrous coins bringing premiums, they always have, always will. This is the point many beginners do not "get". They see certain coins selling for premiums, see they are toned, and assume its always the color bringing the premiums.

To the extent someone pays extra for surfaces, I don't have a problem in the world. To the extent they are paying for just color, then there is my issue. Impaired surface coins can be "forced" to color. Until you can tell the difference, I would always be careful buying a coin just for color, (and I would not personally). Once you know the difference, and pay a premium for lustrous original surfaces, then more power to you and God bless. I would prefer those coins as well, since most "white" coins are only white since they have been dipped, whcih means to a certain extent at least their surfaces are impaired.

Just for clarity, I almost exclusively collected toned coins when I collected US coins. I loved the surfaces, and how the metal almost seemed to flow, its the prettiest a coin can be in my eyes. My main objection to buying toned coins for beginners has always only been they only buy for color, and do not fully understand what the premium should be for, and how to tell the difference.

Chris

 

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How about some anecdotal evidence to the contrary.

I purchased this Morgan Dollar in June 2002 for $718.75. The photo is no longer attached to the auction archive record but I saved the image shown below. I sold the same coin last November for $776.25.



1886 Morgan Dollar NGC MS65 June 2002 $718.75--------------------------------------1886 Morgan Dollar NGC MS65 November 2011 $776.25



The coin shows anecdotal evidence that the rainbow toned market is alive and well despite the constant predictions that it will crash any day. In my post in the other thread, I stated that the discussion about the toned coin market was for another day. Well, apparently, that day is today. So exactly how long does a bubble last? As far as I am concerned, if prices have been stable for a decade, then there is no bubble, no matter how much you wish there was one. Perhaps you can give us an example of another bubble that lasted for a decade before it burst?

I like them, I make money from them, and toned coins are as good an investment as any other numismatic investment. One thing that never goes out of style is eye appeal.

This is my favorite claim by the toning haters. The haters have seen how easy it is to make AT coins but they can't divulge how the doctors do it and don't have the ethical fortitude to expose the doctors that are doing it. The fact is that creating AT coins that can pass for NT is very difficult, and creating a distribution network to filter them into the market is just as difficult.

So I have a question for the toning haters. Toned coins have always existed but in the late 90's, the rainbow toned coin market exploded and prices increased dramatically over the next 5-10 years. My question is what caused the rainbow toned market to explode?

 

I love the toning on nickels in proof sets, such as from the 1960s. Did that blue come from the background material?

 

LP, I didn't mean any disrespect to your series. I love Barbers in the exact grade and natural grey look that you do, just as I do Capped Bust Halves... But there are some series (Morgans, Franklins, Washington Quarters) which I loved toned. I used to collect coins that were old, the older the date the better.. Never really got into key dates. The look of the coin is what I'm after. I personally only see the toning market increasing.

 

I have a few toners but most of my coins are blast white or natural gray by preference. I respect others who collect toners and enjoy them. I had an interesting conversation with a major East Coast dealer last year. He was trying to convince me to invest in key dates. I told him that I only collect coins. The topic of toned coins came up. He said that he can create any form of toning and that people were wasting their money on them. Just one person's viewpoint but he seemed pretty convincing. It goes to show you that people should just collect what they like and enjoy. Investing in coins seems risky. TC

 

Well I think I answered much of this in my post #21 Lehigh. I simply do not know how much premium may be for surfaces versus color, and I could very well be surface premiums being stable, but not color.

As for me not naming names or disclosing the exact methods, its because this is a public forum. The men who showed me are long dead, and some of what they used is a little harder to get now, but I simply do not wish to "teach" people this.

I truly am sorry that after what I posted you still believe I am a toning "hater" Lehigh. I do respect your posts.

Chris

 

people have a need for beauty - nice looking coins will hold value

 

That is part of the correct answer Doug. However, I would not limit it simply to coin forums although they are a huge part of it. I credit the explosion of the toned coin market to two separate factors. The first is the internet. As you have pointed out, the coin forums & registries provided an avenue for collectors to show off their collections and spread the popularity. But without E-Bay, Heritage, and the other coin auction websites, there would have been no way for collectors to obtain these coins. Prior to the internet, collectors were limited to buying coins from their local dealer. The internet made every dealer in the world a local dealer.

The second factor and equally important is the advent of digital photography. Without the ability to take quick and easy photographs, the collectors would not be able to share their toned coins on the forums, and the E-Bay sellers would not be able to sell their toned coins on the internet. Both factors are related to technology which once discovered are not going away.

The end result is that these two advancements in technology dramatically increased the demand for rainbow toned coins which in turn caused the prices to rise. At the time, there were plenty of raw rainbow toned coins languishing in the hidden cases of every B&M dealer in the country. The display cases were full of freshly dipped white material which is what sold back then. Photography & the internet liberated rainbow toned coins and brought them to the masses. It was not some passing fad that made them popular. The fact is that most newbie collectors have never seen a rainbow toned coin. And when they see their first rainbow toned coin they usually have one of two reactions. The first is to be awed by the beauty of rainbow toned coins and immediately become a fan. The second reaction is to view them as a deviation from what they are used to and what they think coins should be, therefore they dislike toned coins. Over time, as these newbie collectors gain more knowledge and experience, they gradually come to appreciate the virtues of toning. These are the collectors who are compared to newbie wine drinkers who prefer simple whites like Chardonnay and Pinot Grigio while resisting the complex reds. But over time, just as the wine drinkers graduate to reds, so do white coin collectors graduate to appreciate toned coins.

So we have established that the demand for these coins has increased dramatically over the last decade and that it will only continue to rise, albeit not nearly at the same rate. Therefore, the only threat to toned coin prices is the supply. I submit that the supply of toned coins can only be drastically affected by one factor, artificial toning. However, I take an alternate view as to what would happen if the technology advanced to the stage that anyone could create an AT coin realistic enough to fool the TPG's. The result would be that the TPG's would stop slabbing toned coins all together, making the supply of certified rainbow toned coins fixed. While some collectors might write off toned coins all together, I think that most toning enthusiasts would be left fighting over the finite supply of toned coins already encapsulated by the TPG's. What others predict will cause the collapse of the toned coin market I think may actually cause prices to rise.

What really bothers me about this subject is that the large majority of people who state that toned coins are a fad do so without ever providing reasons or evidence to support their "shoot from the hip" conclusion. I have now provided a detailed explanation to my theory about what caused the rise of the rainbow toned coin market and the future stability of that market. Perhaps the toning fad guys could return the favor. In the immortal words of Bart Scott, "CAN'T WAIT!"

 

Personally I think toned coins are awesome. To me good toning is like a work of art painted by Monet splayed across your favorite coin.

As for premiums. If the coin is pretty enough someone will pay for it. But I wont be the one doing it (i have actually never paid more then spot for any coin yet)

 

Chris,

I respect your opinion as well and I think that what you said in post #21 is very valid and contains very important advice to newbies about toned coins. Luster is the key that separates quality toned coins from toned dreck.

Regarding the coin doctors, I don't dispute that it can be done. But you make it sound as if it is simple and it just isn't no matter how easy the long dead men made it seem. You have an almost irrational fear of AT that seems to poison your opinion of all toned coins. It is either that or when you collected toned coins there was very little premium and you would welcome a return to that circumstance so that you could collect them again. Either way, it is nearly impossible to read your comments and not get the impression that you are a toning "hater".

 

I simply do not see how "demand will only continue to rise" is proven sir. Or is it "different this time"? Many cycles in numismatics always had adherents decrying "its different this time", as do all market cycles. Coins are only worth more than melt do to fickle collector tastes. I do not know how that can so accurately be "proven". I distinctly remember about 1987 when the market was "different this time" and generic MS65 morgans were going to increase 20% a year indefinitely.

As for the supply issue, I believe you are looking through rose colored glasses. IF TPG stop slabbing them because they cannot be sure of AT, then there is no proving how many already slabbed were AT before the TPG stopped. I beleive such an event would be simply crushing to any premiums.

Just my opinion. I simply responded since your post could have been written in 2006 concerning housing, 1999 concerning tech stocks, or many other times when "its different this time". Maybe you are right, some times things do change permanently, but to say its "proven" is a stretch, but you would not expect a strong proponent and seller of these coins to have any different opinion. No offense meant.

 

Personally I didn't view anything so much as being as toned hater, as I did some presenting a justification for their own collection. To each his own. I appreciate many types of coins, but uniquely naturally toned Franklins are what really win me over. In speculating I don't believe the overall toned market will go up as much as I do particular toned coins. The jaw dropping coins. I believe the price that people will pay and continue to pay will have no end.

 

Again, sorry you believe that way sir. I paid some premiums for my coins, but don't collect US anymore so seriously do not care what happens to premiums.

Yes, I am afraid of AT. I say this because if someone REALLY knows what they are doing, I have seen it done and I would have bought the resulting coins if I didn't know about it. No, its not easy at all if you don't know all of the tricks, and you can see that in a lot of the garbage for sale. I am not trying to pile on in an anti-toning thread, but many times such threads are only positive about toning. I admit your message has been consistent about toning, but you must admit mine has been as well. I am not claiming it is being done, will admit much of what you see is really BAD At, but that is the point. If someone does it well, there is no way anyone here can point it out as AT. One sided, ring toning, spotted toning, envelope toning, can all be forced. WHat cannot be forced is lustrous original surfaces.

After I saw what I saw, I took 10 times the amount of time evaluating a toned coin as i did before, making sure the surfaces were perfect. If others do the same, and are buying a coin with original lustrous surfaces, I could care less what they pay.

 

NO Chris, you are completely wrong and just trying to save face. What did the internet and digital photography have to do with 2006 housing or 1999 tech stocks? Those bubbles had very specific causes that are completely unrelated to toned coins and completely related to greed. The 1987 Morgan Dollar event was related to the influx of wall street money and was a very foreseeable bubble. If you think that the prices of toned coins are being artificially inflated, then get to work and provide some proof. I showed you a rainbow toned coin that demonstrated a consistent value over 10 years. In a bubble, the prices shoot up and then crash down, and it doesn't ever take a decade to do so! How many decades need to pass before it is proven Chris? The fundamental difference here Chris is that you view the prices of rainbow toned coins as a market cycle whereas I view them as a stable market.

With regards to the demand, yes, it is different this time. I showed that the major cause of the increase in popularity of toned coins was directly related to advancements in technology which can't be repealed. You would have us think that all coin collectors used to like white coins and all of a sudden for no apparent reason, they just decided to switch and like toned coins. Your prediction is equally as ludicrous that they will tire of the tone coins and switch to something else, ANCIENTS perhaps! When I said the demand will continue to rise, I also made the disclaimer that it will not rise at the same rate. New collectors will replace those that pass and the demand will increase enough to absorb new supply and keep the market stable as it has been over the last 10 years.

And let's set the record straight since you brought it up. I have only been selling my toned coins since January 2012 out of financial necessity. However, if you research my comments on this subject, you will find they have been consistent since I joined the forum in 2008. Your attempt to label my opinion as financially self serving is low brow as is your final comment that you meant no offense.

 

Toss a silver coin in some tupperware, along with a hard boiled egg, close it and put it by a window with sun, voila, quick toning thanks to sulfur. Though it tones so quick that it can cause the coin to be black in no time

 

All I can say Paul is first I apologize if I was inferring your comments were self serving. I meant someone deep into a market is not in the best position to see from the outside.

Second, I could name Russian coins as a more current coin bubble that lasted for quite a while but has deflated. Tastes change, prices go too high and have to come back to earth. I was simply naming two more well known markets showing the same pattern. I never said they had anything to do with coins.

Third, I am sorry but anyone saying "its different this time" simply makes me nervous.

I also agree with Doug's post #38 100%, so much that I could have wrote it, (save for personally being involved in some of the things he was. I as well will never mention the methods used, since I am against anyone artificially toning coins. I just seriously doubt the method died off with the older dealers/collectors. It was never rocket science, and the only hard part was the particulars.

I am not trying to save face, I am simply trying to be polite and give my opinion. Everyone reading this can make their own decisions.

Chris

 

Actually I think you got that wrong. If the future is predominately toned coins because all coins tone, the demand will likely swap because blast white coins will be harder to find because the market will be drowning in toned coins, thus making untoned coins very costly more than likely.