How long before coins are no longer graded by people but by computers?

I am sure one day coin grading will be done buy a computer that scans the coins and calculates the grade.
I'm sure most coins will be graded like this within 20 years.

 

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"They" tried doing this. It failed.

 

They "tried" many, many things that have failed. But I expect that within the next decade, computers will be able to scan and grade a coin by luster, strike, wear, etc and come much closer to the grading standard than people do today. It will become much more standardized than it is today.

I also think the driverless car is on the horizon, too.

Maybe, I am wrong, but technoilogy fuels technology. The more computerized we become, the easier it is for computers to be created that will take over a task. IMHO

gary

 

Yeah, they could have a technical scan of the coin, but market grade is a different matter. The reason it failed the first time with Morgans is the computer cannot see "beauty" and factor in market acceptance and desirability. Both of these are huge components of the grade. That is the reason I wouldn't hold your breath for automatic computer grading IMHO.

Chris

 

The only problem I see with that is that scanning a coin destroys all luster on a coin.

 

I have to agree with the OP to an extent. Technology ( specificly computers) double in computing power every two years. Many scientists believe that by 2013 to 2015 a computer will be able to match if not beat the total computation capabilities of the human brain. Which makes this a doable idea.

 

Yes, I can see that happening one day. For instance, I could envision a machine that would measure the high points of a coin to verify that there has been no wear to it, and to measure the luster. That could be done. Even programming in to have the computer pick up the defects, such as dings, nicks, hairlines, bag marks, etc. where the machine could suggest a grade to the operator, and the operator could then look closely at each of those to determine if they are warranted. If they are, the operator would allow the computer program to keep that in the mix, and if not, then the operator could delete it so it wasn't considered. Maybe there would be a set amount of marks that the operator could "ignore" depending on the characteristics of a particular coin and the date/mint it was associated with.

It truly is amazing what can be done in a short time with technology if that's what people want to come up with. There are so many things happening today that just 10 or 20 years ago people were saying that they wouldn't happen because there were limits on how much a computer could store, or that phone calls could never be free, or unwired communications. So I won't say it won't happen. In fact I can see that it could, because then the tpg's could also map out the coin, and keep that as a record for people for coins that have been stolen, or coins they have graded before.

 

Imo it would be nice if a machine could give a cheap estimate of what a grade of a coin is. But I think humans will be better than machines for such technology for many more years. There are so many variables that go into determining the grade of a coin, that it would take years to implement it.

 

What are they going to think of next?Coin vending machines???

 

Your question assumes that TPGs desire consistent technical grades and it's human error that holds them back. I do not accept this premise, so I don't think computer grading is in their future.

 

I doubt that the TPG's worry about consistent technical grades - I would think, as a business, their chief concern would be doing a satisfactory job in as little time as possible with as little cost as possible. This requires at least one more invention...a device that can quickly and safely process the coins before and after their scan without damaging them.

 

The problem with this is its exactly the sort of thing that computers are bad at. They're good at chess and things that basically have math as a basis, but judging a coin really cant be quantified very well, so unless theres a break through in how computers think it will be quite some time, at least for a coin with a higher grade.

But computers could be useful for sorting lower grade coins and things like that, if there were some need to do so on a large scale basis.

 

While I see that as a possibility I also see the possibility of no coins in the future. Think about it, we are moving towards not carrying cash already. Future purchases will be made with a piece of plastic or a scan of our fingerprints.

 

Weren't computers suppose to take over humans by now?

 

But most of the people on the forum have a human brain, but they still can't learn to grade.

PCGS uses a laser scanning device and it doesn't damage the coin. The power would have to be extreme to cause such damage. Laser measuring devices and levels are common in use and do no damage to even absorptive structures. The Turing test is used by humans to determine the "human likeness" in computer programing, so maybe the industry will have to reverse that and find a computer program which can grade such that a good human grader could not distinguish it was artificial.

By the way several years ago, I researched such patents, and almost all of the major patents on computerized coin grading devices and program algorithms are currently owned by PCGS parent company. Several originated from Computer Science Theses endeavors. Thus I am sure they will be in the forefront and pricing and company profits will reflect this. IMO of course.
Jim

 

We may see see computer grading in the future. PCGS will program in standards they want. NGC will use the standards they want. Others will do as they wish. Back where we started.

 

Please explain to me how that happens.

 

I think they will be used to pidgeon hole coins. Type, variety, die errors. Their most useful part will be things like forgery detection, PVC exposure. The final grade will have to be made by a human, like a previous poster said, you can't program beauty.

 

Maybe but will they accept half dollars?