You got science in my numismatics! http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/02/the-probabilities-of-pennies/ In 1999, A Study Showed that, on average (or something like that), you'd need to collect 684 Lincoln Memorial cents from circulation to find one from each year (1959 to 1997). I'm thinking that that number's gone up considerably since, with the added "collector pressure" due to the rising price of copper. (Sorry if this is old news to the forum, but I only now came across it, courtesy of Wired...)
Actually, I have read that about 15% of all cents get destroyed each year. Now you have 2 full years of shield Cents in circulation with a crapzillion mintage at both mints. So I think the number may have changed a lot. There is an article posted on the CONECA site a while back where a father-daughter team posted their roll finds. If they are any indication, there are some of the series that are more scarce than the 1909 S vdb. The 1992 CAM is really rare ! I realize we're talking about building a year set. Sorry, but who does just that ? lol I don;t think those collectors count in the number of cent collectors out there, because every serious collector expands and continues to build their sets. I mean is there a single one of us who can stand an empty place in a folder , binder, album, box, etc. ? I think not.
This one probably wasn't too far off but often things like this are calculated and the pencil doesn't know that there is an attrition rate on these or that this number would vary from one part of the country to another. Indeed the attrition rate itself can vary across the country and doesn't always closely correlate to the age.
I think these numbers are indeed very regional. I know for a fact that I will not find any cents worth keeping from my local credit union. There are two individuals that order in boxes of cents and cherry pick everything the credit union gives out in change. But, I have one of the tellers (my wife) trained, on what to look for in all other denominations.
