My Impression of the Current Numismatic Market

It appears that things have not been going well at coin shows, even the big ones.

The Philly Whitman show in Sept had dealers crying in their slabs.
I didn't go this year but I went the two previous years on Friday and there was PLENTY of room to move around.
At the time dealers were faulting the location (Philadelphia).
But this year they were much more willing to blame the economy.

And the recent ANA show (Pittsburgh?) didn't seem to fare any better.
Same blame: The economy.

But thinking is beginning to shift to another possibility, too many shows.
Combine that with the economy and it appears that the national numismatic budget is being tapped out.

Baltimore has 3 Whitman shows a year: March, June and November.
They are generally considered strong shows.
I believe the FUN's are strong too.
Maybe I'll get a feeling on the 18th in Baltimore.
And after it's over I'll ask MFD his impression of the whole show.
Hard for me to get a true reading when I only go on Friday morning.

Another problem may be that dealers aren't willing to back off on their prices.
Sorry guys and gals but the amount of money to go around is much less now.
Temporarily the answer may be:
-- lower profit margins
-- fewer shows
-- lower table fees

Your impressions?

 

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Interesting, I can't really add to this, I have been to the ANA in Boston and several Baltimore shows in the past year or so. But no shows before then.

 

You're probably right. I agree that there's just too many shows. I love going to shows, I am not unemployed and can occasionally splurge on coins.

This year I went to the ANA worlds fair over in Rosemont since it was so close. This was such a large event that it was not easy to gauge whether it was packed or not. The place was huge. Over two days, I pretty much blew most of this year's budget there and then some. There was a local show (50 miles away) that I normally go to every year that I skipped this year because I went to the ANA show and since I ordered five 25th anniv. ASE sets from the mint.
All in all, there's got to be a lot of people who skip their local shows after the major ones come through. Or even after major mint releases. With this economy, anybody who's lucky enough to be able to buy any coins is doing better than a lot of people. It's difficult to go to more than a couple shows a year for me.
I won't go just to look. That would feel like wasting my time and gas. I'm either adding to the collection or staying home.

I'm sure the dealers here can give a decent assessment.

 

I've got 3 local shows adding up to about 8 events a year.
I've given up on them mainly because my current interests are too esoteric for the dealers.
These dealers cater mostly to the low and mid level collectors.
I've now limited myself to the 3 Balto Whitman shows each year.

 

Great observations. My guess is that it is likely due in part to the economy and the PM market. TC

 

All great points folks, and mine are only an observation from a collector/ apprentice that is associated with a dealer.

As far as shows are concerned, I would have trouble seeing the benefit to "taking the show on the road" and making that the whole of a business. It is quite expensive for a flight, housing, booth rental and maybe a car rental and that money alone would be quite stressful to have to recover just to start making money on a three day weekend. Especially after investing in over a 100 thousand into an inventory that can pull that kind of profit. Then with multi million dollar auctions at every show loaded with killer coins as competition, it is quite daunting. Then someone wants to "talk you down " from your highlight pieces that are really the only shot you have to make up your overhead, it can make for a bummer weekend. A nice store would be helpful and (I'm sure PMs would keep that alive) attending a few shows a year to build new stock or blow out dead material would make it useful, otherwise, no wonder so many dealers are singing the blues. I suspect dealers are like everyone else and are there for the same reasons, that they love coins and the real criers are the ones that get hung up on always "making out". Sure it is tough out there, everywhere right now, that's life. The key is to find the new opportunities and keep trustworthy people close, reevaluate goals, be astute, and stay positive.

As a collector, I hear it is a "collectors paradise" and that there are deals out there, but for the coins in the grades I am into, the competition is fierce. Great coins get placed on Heritage or others and I get outbid all the time! There is a strong market for really nice coins and the less attractive problem ones are pretty soft. My dealer friend says he won't commit too much capitol in collector coins at the moment, because he sees them going even lower in price and his offers are quite low at the moment.

So, I have a big interest in coins, and I love shows, but I can't get away often so I chose to attend the FUN in Jan. Attending will cost me 1000 with flight 500, hotel 300, food etc. I save up for that all year because:

1. I'm looking for exceptional material I want to view in hand, and it helps me look at tons of material that gives me an eye for what to look for when buying online the rest of the year.
2. I see things that I never knew existed from the finest to the worst.
3. I get to hang out with friends I met at the Summer Seminar and I enjoy their company.
4. I get a face to face with dealers I can work with over the phone and internet the rest of the year.
5. It is warm in FL and I can get around some palm trees in the dead of winter and my business field slows.
6. I go from the show further south to hang out with a friend and fish for a day or two.
7. There is something cool going to happen that I don't even know and I just need to show up to find it. Etc.

Everyone is into this hobby for their own reasons, these are mine. Not everybody can make it to a show for the time or the money. I just hope nobody panics and gets out, this hobby is here to stay, IMO
Matt

 

My local show is like going to a local stealer...
Used to be focused on coins, but last time around, just like BM shops, everyone was focused on PMs to the detriment of numismatists.

 

Interesting analysis.

My pessimistic side says, The powers that be, those high minded citizens of the world are bound and determined to level conditions around the world, and that means that my nation is going to keep sliding downward economically. That means less disposable income for hobbies such as numismatics and that means prices will drop to the point that eventually everything becomes bullion.

My optimistic side says that we have had recessions and depressions before, that eventually those people we hire to run the various branches of government will do the right thing, after all even a blind robin occasionally finds a worm. That with inflation everything that is bought will eventually reach a point of break even and maybe a little profit. I remind myself of its a wonderful life economics, "dont you see? Potter is not selling, he is buying, and why because we are panicking and he is picking up bargains."

One of the non numismatic buys I have been making are incandescent light bulbs, our wonderful friends in congress are legislating them out of existance, just as they did with car refrigerant and one flush toilets, I like the incandescent for reading, plus it does not cause static on my bedside radio, so I am stocked up.

Back to numismatics, my long term feeling is that many world coins and currency of nations that are gaining economically from the wests self inflicted economic woundings will appreciate more than other coins, that speciifically means Indian and Chinese items.

 

A lot of the problem with the coin market is the economy. But I think more of it has to do with bullion prices. Look at when the coin market started to dive and you'll see thats when bullion took off. Most collectors aren't going to buy into the gold and silver hype that has artificially lifted prices on all coins. I've stopped buying anything silver, as I know many have. Bullion prices have also injected a mentality into the hobby that most seasoned collectors don't appreciate, with overnight experts in everything coin because they think they are brilliant investors. Many things have contributed to hurt the market, but those are the main things I have seen.
Guy

 

I don't think I could agree more. This about sums it all up for me. The ANA in Chicago did a good business, but it was just 3 months ago. I think Joe Consumer is tapped out, but will save for the next big show. So the rest of the shows until then will have business below normal.

 

I would say 80% of the coins I buy throughout the year is online.

 

Since PM's are "King", good time to stock up on numismatic items. I try to buy what's not popular at the time, but has potential. As for now, I'm not lowering prices on key dates, I can and will wait for the economy to recover. So, if anything, I'm buying keys, not selling them. As for PM's, I don't like the prices, nor the volume necessary to make a nickel, so I'm only speculating on numismatic bullion, like the ATB P's and 25th Ann. Silver Eagle Set.

 

Yep, the web is the future for many items. As for coins, since there are so many scammers out there, high resolution pics and numismatic knowledge is even more important.

 

Same here Mat, I buy most everything online too. I do attend shows though and always find some nice material at them. I've been to both Balto shows (and going to the next one too), Philly in September, and about three smaller regional shows this year.

Bruce

 

But isn't that good for the market since it brings more buyers like myself who are tired of stacking bullions.

 

For sure the shift with online. I had a great time at my first coin show today, and picked up 6 nice coins, but I have probably picked up 100 online. Right now I can plug in barber quarter, and see there are 3,800 on ebay. I can also check ebay pulse and see accurate market prices. The coin show today was great for networking, but there was an instance where I wanted to pick up some bullions, and out of courtesy I stood to the side for 20 minutes, while a big deal was negotiated. I was also surprised by the lack of PCGS slabbed coins. I guess shopping online gave me false expectations. I will typically only buy slabbed coins, but nothing I bought at the show today was slabbed. (It was the 2nd day). Now don't get me wrong, I had a great time at the show, and met some really cool people, as well as getting some nice coins. On the other-hand the convenience wasn't there, and I drove an hour and a half to get there.

On another note, I am no expert on coins, but I am an aspiring economist, and economics major. In the opinion of some, silver has just not been marketed like gold has. We believe that the silver boom is just starting, and although gold might rise a bit more as insurance against inflation; that silver will be the better long term investment. I know everyone says GOLD GOLD GOLD, but when the economy collapses the buyers market for gold won't be as strong as the buyers market for silver, because it is viewed as a stronger hedge against inflation. On another note I think big investors will come around to silver and spot price will rise.

Blah Blah Blah, sorry for the rant. I know there were a lot of " I thinks" in there, but I have nothing better to do. =[]

 

Being an aspiring economist, don't you believe the economy will recover when they get it together in DC? Just asking because of your comments about silver when the economy colapses.

 

No matter who runs Washington it won't make much of difference because of fierce competition from abroad, lack of skills and work ethic among younger generation and growing entitlement spending.