After silver goes back down ...

Assume for the sake of argument that silver will sooner or later go down in price, maybe to $15 or less. Once that happens, do you think it will be hard to find "common" silver coins to buy? What I'm thinking is that right now everyone who had been holding onto them but was eventually planning to sell has sold them, and then other people who think the price is going to skyrocket is buying them up. But if the price drops significantly, everyone who bought them as an investment is going to want to hold onto them for a long time because they don't want to take a big loss. Plus coin stores that paid $28 an ounce for them won't want to sell them at $15. So it seems like there would be a lot less on the market. What do you think?

 

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There are always people selling at the top and bottom of the market (and everywhere in between). If silver drops to 15 there will be people selling because they are scared it will go to 10.

You know what they say about the word assume.... ass u me

 

After a drop, it seems like a lot of people try to sell in a hurry before the drop goes further. And then, when the sellers outnumber the buyers, the price drops further.

If anything, the supply of silver seems scarce right now because everyone seems to be buying it up. When/if it goes down, available supplies will probably increases.

 

Silver won't see the depth's of $15.00 an ounce in my lifetime.

 

I would disagree. Just two years ago it was down to $10.75 an ounce. That's 2009! Silver is a roller coaster.
As for the OP, I would think silver would act the same as it has in the past when the market dove like that. Some people want to dump it before it goes lower, and others want to buy more because it's so low. When I was buying and selling silver my busiest time was when silver was dropping. People were calling worried that they would lose their investment in total, and then, like I mentioned, there were the others who were picking up what others were dropping off.

 

Okay. Mark your calendar . One year from 1/01/11 , we will revisit this thread and see where Silver is .

 

What good would that do? Even it is still up or even higher a year from now that doesn't mean it won't be lower in 18 months. You gave as a timeline as being within your lifetime......or is your lifetime going to end in about a year?

 

Maybe I wasn't quite as clear as I could have been. I'm not saying silver WILL be down or up in exactly one year time. I'm simply saying, don't assume that silver won't see 15.00 an ounce in our lifetimes (granted, I am not sure how old, nor how close to death you are) as we have seen silver drop to just shy of 11.00 an ounce and jump to 30.00 an ounce and everywhere in between within a year and a half.

 

Just have to see how it does on an annual basis. From where I sit, silver will be up from where it was on 1/01/11 a year from now, not down .

 

Any guesses right now? I'd like to see who can guess the closest on 1/1/12. I personally am going to say silver will be lower then. I'll say $22.70 per ounce.

 

Unfortunately , there are far to many variables to consider even in taking an educated guess at where Silver will be . One thing , I'm fairly confident of , is that across the board Cost of Living will be up , perhaps more in this year than it ever has been in previous years . Just look at what is happening right now . One of the latest news stories attempted to brace us for unheard of price increases for clothing . So to answer your question , no I don't have a guess . But I think it will be more than what is was on 1/01/11 . So , no I don't see silver being below where it was than , also.

 

When silver dipped from $20 down to $8, premiums on physical jumped. It was difficult to find any physical silver for immediate delivery any where near the spot price, when it fell 60%. That scenario may happen again if silver gets hit again, but it might not. Each trip tends to be a bit different. If folks are forced to sell their silver, for money for food to eat, premiums may go negative on a slide, and with spot at $15, a careful buyer might find motivated sellers willing to let it go for less. Again, each time tends to be a bit different than the last time.

 

Coinman0456: I would like to have your autograph, because I really like the way you talk!! I don't believe we have even come close to seeing silvers full growth potential. But we will. More sooner than later in my opinion.

 

I'll guess around $50 sometime this year. But I'll selling along the way.

Lack

 

I didn't really want to start another discussion on how high silver will go because there are plenty of those on here already. My interest is that I'm trying to complete some sets and right now I'd like to buy more Washington, Liberty and Barber quarters and Franklin, Liberty and Barber halves. Since I'm not buying as bullion, I don't want to buy high, and I do think silver will go down. I am just wondering if I'll be able to find the coins when it does go down, or if all the bins will be empty at the coin shop.

 

I don't think you have to worry about that. Sure, as the price keeps going up and up, some coins will end up at the smelter. But as GeorgeM. stated above, if/when silver drops, the market will see alot of increased activity as coins come out of the woodwork and back into the marketplace because people are liquidating their holdings of said coins. Driven by fear, they dump them off because they are afraid of losing more of the money they've invested.

As far as coins you are seeking for your sets, I learned a hard lesson when I was putting together a 20th Century Type Set. All PCGS/NGC graded. And that is: Any coin with the name Barber attached to it........SPENDY. And hard to find. But the hunt is part of the fun. So good luck. And have fun! That's what is important.

 

I think this "some" will be a very small number. From everything I have heard most people want to keep silver in coin form since it is easy to place a value on and know its composition.

 

I have no doubt that many of them are, but I was finding the common dates at my local coin shop for reasonable prices. I wish I would have splurged and bought everything when I could have because I'd be done and wouldn't have to worry about prices. I remember the coin shop employee asking me if I wanted to go through the bin of Walkers which were $7, and I said I didn't want to spend that much. (This is maybe eight months ago). Now I wish I had, but I never thought prices would go up as they have. I am just glad I completed the Roosevelt and Mercury dime sets before the price spiked.

 

Thats a real concern. My only suggestion for you , is to buy what you need as they are available , and those pieces that are within your financial capabilities . Sometimes you win and sometimes not .

 

I heard that when I was 25 and it only took a year or two.

I find it interesting how the silver sellers conveniently start their charts just AFTER the Hunt silver spike.

Just for your information, when silver does begin it's precipitous fall and you try to take your profit, you will get hit by both the reduced market and a big hit by the new discount margin the few buyers will require. Gone will be 90% of spot purchases by buyers and welcome to 50% of spot offers, if you can even find them.

It's happened before, just a few short decades ago.