Rise of Barber Half Dollar Values / Fall of Morgan Dollar Values

As a new collector/investor, I am going to spend about $1000 on coins that are both beautiful and have some (but not necessarily guaranteed) potential for future rise in value. I have narrowed my choice to Barber Half Dollars and Morgan Dollars.

So far I have noticed that mid-graded Barber Half Dollars have increased in value over the past few years, while the MS-65 Morgan values have decreased. I assume that there will always be a market for both of these coins and that they generally hold their value.

But am I correct in assuming that this is a better time to buy some of these Morgans that are decreasing in price because these mid-graded Barbers are peaking?

I'd appreciate any feedback from anyone out there. Thank you for your time and expertise.

 

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Just like housing what it used to sell for does not guarantee it will get back there. I love your thinking, very intelligent reversion to the mean, but with collectibles it doesn't always work that way.

Personally I think nice type coins and early commemoratives are a decent buy right now. If I wanted to put money into US coins, it would be in those markets. But hey, this is a hobby, buy something that you appreciate, you love, and you wish to collect. Any price appreciation is just a bonus to me, I collect for my pleasure.

 

While I love when Doug posts these graphs, everyone please remember they are EXTREMELY wieghted to rare/high grade coins. Collector coins like circulated large cents, Indian Head, barbers, buffalos, etc are not always in sync with such price movements.

 

Morgans have been weak for quite a while, and on a wholesale basis generic dates in MS65 are still easily buyable for 20% back of CDN bid.

Mid Grade Barbers are a whole different animal.. they get warm in Fine, red hot in VF, nuclear fission in XF and generally cool right down in AU. The market on these coins is also VERY fickle and, IMO, rather unstable.

First, pretty much ANY VF-XF Barber Half is at least scarce, and that's for a "common" one like a 12-D, some are genuinely rare, much rarer than most people realize. Barber Halves were like the $10 or $20 bills of their day, they saw very heavy use in commerce, so once they entered circulation, they stayed there. I think that David Lawrence said that 95% of extant Barber Halves grade no better than VG and I tend to believe that.

The problem with pricing them is that the published price guides, on numerous dates, have little, if any bearing on their actual market value. If they are "crusty" and have their original skin and are one of the TRULY rare dates, then they can bring as much as 3-4 times "Sheet" or "guide".

Also, it's the PCGS slabbed ones that generally bring crazy money, not the NGC coins. On top of that, the coins generally have to be original and not messed with, and that brings the already small pool of VF-XF coins down quite a bit. A great many of them have been cleaned, dipped out, dipped out and artificially toned back, whizzed, etc and on top of that they're big coins so they often attract damage.

And that's the trick, knowing which ones really are rare. If you just look in the Red Book, you'd think that the 13p, 14p and 15p are the rarest ones, they aren't. The 93-S, 05-O and then probably the 98-O are actually the toughest ones to find in truly original, problem-free VF-XF. The series is just flat-out full of "sleeper dates" like the 03-O, a coin which doesn't seem, per published guides, to be a rare coin. Now try and find an original-skin one.

I was lucky to get a number of coins for my set due to the breakup of the Gettysburg set and my friend Mike Hayes selling off some duplicates, otherwise I'd still be trying to complete my set. I have the #5 I think everyman set on the PCGS registry.

 

Thanks for that rld24.

 

Question? With CDN Bid being $135-$140 for generic dates in 65, where are are finding them for $110-$115? Are those PCGS or NGC certified at that price?

 

You can buy generic dates for $100-120 each.. NGC coins closer to the $100 mark, PCGS Blue Labels in and around 110-115.

Obviously attractive toning, better dates, etc change all this. If plenty of dealers are selling them retail for right around bid.....

 

Where??? APMEX has a wholesale Bid out for pre-21 Morgans in MS65 at $120 in NGC plastic and $125 in PCGS. If you can make $15-$20 on every one you buy? I'd buy 100 pieces today but rarely see them under $125 anywhere.

 

Last I looked Greysheet bid was $135, they are buyable for 80% of that... that's $108

If Im buying them for $110-115 each, selling them to APMEX is making me $10-15 each, but then I have to ship them, wait for a check, etc.... No clever dealer is paying bid for these right now, of course, the Morgan generic market is quite volatile and it's possible APMEX is gobbling them up for a telemarketer.

 

Just zoned in on this topic... listen to RLD14... he knows mid range Barber Halves.

 

Ahh, what do I know?

Although I did manage to find that elusive 01-S!

 

I would go for mid-grade Barber $1/2 at this time, they are still undervalued.

Check out the 1905 P in AU.


Look at some of the mintages.

 

LOL - all you had to do is prod me - after I decided to sell off
my duplicate set of halves, I kept the 01-S out as its a bear to
locate nice. Once I started another set [ recently sold ] I included
an upgrade to the one I just sold you [ VF 35 - from the Gettysburg
Collection ] ... the replacement was a PCGS AU 50 which was a tad
overgraded - but still the nicest circulated 01-S I had ever seen.

At FUN, I sold that PCGS 50 - 1901-S for a small profit [ 10% ] and
it now resides in Cratylus' set.

The Gettysburg coin:



The replacement: