PCGS 3000 INDEX

That depends on how one interprets the graphs. The true purpose of the graphs is not to show you dollar increases and or decreases, but the trend of the market over a given time frame. That, and that alone, is why the graphs are of value to collectors and dealers alike. For if you are buying or selling it is usually wise to know in advance what the trend of the market is before making decisions on how much to pay or ask. And if you use all the graphs, you will know what the trend is in the majority of all the market segments at any given time.

Seems to me that any way you wanna look at it, that's valuable information.

 

There was at one time. You see that huge spike, quickly followed by that huge drop in this chart ?





Well, that was caused by the same kind of thing you're asking about - Wall Street getting involved with coins. And as you can see, it didn't work out so well.

 

I agree, and have posted the same in other threads.

https://www.cointalk.com/threads/has-the-coin-market-cooled-off.401111/#post-9269586

 

When it comes to the "why" of market movement in either direction at any time, the best we can ever do is speculate, guess, to explain it. Now some of those guesses may be right, and some may be wrong. But no matter how reasonable or educated those guesses may be, they are still just guesses that cannot be proved.

And in the end the why doesn't matter. The only thing that does matter is the movement.

 

Sounds like you wanna talk predictions

OK, I think the market going to go past the previous highs of 2008, higher in other words. There may well and probably will be a blip or two to the downside along the way, but I expect the upward trend will continue for another year, maybe 2.

 

You're trying to apply "whys", reasons, for market movement. And, trying to break the market down into segments - as opposed to looking at the market as a whole.

You can do either one and or both. And sometimes one needs to do that, depending on their personal collection focus, AND their reason(s) for collecting. AND, whether they are looking to buy, or sell.

And if one looks at the individual market segments -




You'll see that some segments are different than the whole, while some others tend to mirror the whole for the most part.

The problem with trying to figure out "whys" is that pretty much everybody has their own "why". So no matter what your why is, theirs easily could be and probably is quite different. And one must also always remember that before anyone can buy - somebody has to be selling ! And the "whys" for buying are simply bound to different from the "whys" for selling.

This is why I say forget trying to figure out the "whys", because it's all too easy to be flat out wrong. Instead, focus on the market trends, and let that be your guide to helping you make decisions. The trend is what it is, regardless of direction. As the old saying goes, the trend is your friend. The "whys" - not at all.

Of course doing any of this only matters if one is concerned with money - profit and or loss. Because if one is collecting coins because they like them, then none of this matters. But I will admit it is sometimes comforting to at least be aware of it.

 

I'll answer your question the way you asked it the first time -

In general, no, I don't think there's much difference between that time period, (50's, 60's, and 70's), and now when it comes to who (and how many) likes to collect them and who doesn't. But for other time periods, yeah, there are significant differences.

At various periods throughout history the popularity for collecting certain types has waxed and waned. Some more than others, some less than others. Prior to the 50's for example, small denomination coins were far and away the most popular (read as most often collected) coins because they were all most collectors could afford for generations. And what are referred to as classic commems are also a stand out example. From 1918 to the late 30's they were quite popular and many collected them. But by the 50's that popularity had been waning for a while and they quit producing them for about 30 years. And since then the numbers of those who like to collect them has held fairly steady, and pretty low. And modern commems, well there have always been those who like them but their numbers have always been low.

Since their inception, but especially since the 50's, the most popular and widely collected coin type has steadily been the Lincoln cent, and that still hasn't changed. The 2nd most popular has been Morgan dollars and that hasn't changed either. And I fully expect those 2 types to maintain their current standing.

The rest of the small denomination coins, their popularity numbers haven't really changed all that much in a hundred years or more. Oh sure, one or two has surged in popularity from time to time, but that popularity was generally short lived for the most part and they quickly returned to their normal status. And I pretty much expect them to maintain that.

Large denomination coins, namely gold, collecting popularity has always been pretty low because so few could afford it. Yeah, from a relative standpoint it's surged now and then, but nowhere near the popularity of other denominations.

Primarily there are two things that drive popularity, what people like and what they can afford. That hasn't ever changed and I doubt it ever will.

 

Well, you're talking about prices and I was talking about popularity (the number of collectors collecting given coins). And the two things do not always equate to each other. Now sometimes they do, but at other times they most definitely do not. And we must also remember that at times when prices drop, popularity can increase precisely because prices dropped. Coins that were unaffordable to many and were therefore not collected, suddenly start being collected because they became affordable. We must also remember that popularity cannot be judged and or measured by looking at market price charts. Popularity can only measured by reports and discussions on coin forums and in the numismatic press.

As for the huge price drops in Franklins and commems that you mention. Were they really all that huge, or more significant than the price drops in the market in general or other market segments ? I'll grant you, you're absolutely correct when it comes to commems they suffered larger decreases than pretty much anything else, nor have they recovered like everything else did. But the small denomination coins, they weren't much different than anything else when it comes to percentage decreases. Were they exactly the same ? Of course not, but not all that different. To see all of that, simply look at the 10 year charts and the '70 to date charts.

I will grant you however that even though percentage increases/decreases are similar, small denomination coins do track differently than other market segments, and they always have. Historically they reach their highs and lows at different times than other market segments. And the two indexes that we have to follow for small denomination coins - Mint State Type Coin Index and 20th Century Coin Index - can even be contradictory to each other at times. Granted, these indexes are different from each other but they, and the 3000 index, are the only ones we have that contain small denomination coins.

For example, look at the 10 year charts for the two and compare them to each other.
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/mint-state-type

https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/twentieth-century

To see an even bigger contradiction look at these charts from back in July of 2015.







They both come from exactly the same time but both show completely different things. The most surprising thing to me is that the 20th Century index reached its high in 2004 and its low in 2012. While the Mint State Type index pretty much mirrored the market as a whole in regard to timing and relative percentages. And when it comes to recovery, those two indexes have reversed positions yet again. With recovery the 20th Century index has mirrored the market and regained its losses while the MS Type index has come nowhere close to recovering yet.

To me, another example that the "whys" don't matter, but history does.