The futility of searching circulating coins for silver- Washington Quarter edition

I know this will come across as being controversial but really, I'm just trying to be honest with myself and everybody here. I don't mean to rain on anyone's parade but the numbers don't lie.

I post this as an example born from my own curiosity (and maybe even out of frustration. lol)

Ok. I am guilty. I check my change for key dates and silver every day. But that's as far as I am willing to waste my time. I don't think I or many others have quite had a firm grasp on the absolute magnitude of coinage the mint has produced for circulation. Just in the last 70 years.

What has spawned this outburst on the forum? Well, one day I'd love to find an old quarter in change. Just to say I found one! I don't need one. I currently own 88 silver quarters plus most of the modern silver state proofs. But still, I kick the idea around of maybe finding an old one some day. So, I glance at my change.

Lets look at Washington quarters:

In the past week or so, I've received no less than 4, 1965 quarters in change (including one today) from 4 completely different places. In the past year, I've probably received 30-40, 1965s. I have never received a 1964 or earlier.

Why is that? Well, for one, we can look at the mintage figures to try to help understand this anomaly. 1965 saw a mintage of 1.8 Billion Washingtons. 1967, another date commonly received saw 1.5 Billion produced.
But wait! 1964 saw a total of over 1.2 Billion produced for circulation. Where are they?! Shouldn't I be almost just as likely to find a 64 as a 65?
This leads me to believe that despite the high mintage for 1964, circulating coinage has been diluted and picked over for so many years that trying to search batches of quarters (or most anything anymore), would be insane. They were probably picked over in the early 80s more than they are now.

Here's where things really get interesting.

From 1932 to 1964, they produced a little over 3.77 Billion silver quarters TOTAL, for circulation. This number sounds huge. But in reality, this is nothing!

1965 to 1967, they produced over 4.1 Billion in these 3 years alone!

Which means if it was theoretically possible to do, you could throw EVERY 1932-1964 quarter ever made for circulation (32 years worth of quarters) into a pot........
Then throw every 1965 to 1967 quarter (3 years) ever made into the same pot and mix it all up. Now, you get to pick a quarter out, blind folded.
The chances of picking out a silver quarter would be LESS THAN 50%!! That's just having the 65s through 67s mixed in! You would have a 48% chance of picking a silver quarter out of the pile.

Ah. It's all making sense now.

They put over 1.6 billion bi-centennials into circulation. You can't even hardly find one of these anymore!

The state quarters program alone easily saw over 1.5 billion quarters EVERY YEAR being dumped into circulation. This was common. Not to mention all the old quarters, dealers and collectors are sitting on, or that the TPGs have graded.

So bottom line, what is your chance of pulling ANY old quarter out of circulation now? I quickly and roughly skimmed through all the mintages since '65 to get a rough number. I came up with around 75 Billion new quarters made, from 65-2008.
If we wanted to pretend in a perfect World that ALL Washington quarters were still in circulation and up for grabs, you would have roughly a 4.7% chance of receiving a 32-64 quarter in circulation. Which of course is a fantasy.
We can assume that almost no old quarters are left in circulation, making the very high number of 4.7% much, much less. Most likely less than a 1% chance by now. And getting smaller each year that goes by.

Unless of course somebody just spent one out of somebody's collection (which, I won't be waiting around for either), this is rare happening!

So, hopefully anybody searching a bank roll these days is looking for DD's, or errors. I believe searching had it's day, but that day has come and passed.

Some may not want to hear it but, if not only for myself, we have some perspective on the situation and maybe I saved somebody some time.

 

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I remember when my dad told me when I was a kid, just getting into coin collecting... that silver dimes were worth 2.50 and silver quarters were worth about 6 bucks... so I remember searching through all the change I could find. In total I think i found at least 20 silver dimes... never a single silver quarter. My friend is the only person I know who has ever found a silver quarter in change... and this was just over the last summer. It was a 64, of course.

 

Well said Vess1. I agree finding any silver quarters in change is rare. It's also getting rare just finding wheat back cents in change for that matter.

 

I know people who find silver alot while searching rolls of half dollars. And about a year ago my brother got 3 silver quarters in change at a gas station. I think they were all 1962's. They only silver I've ever found though has been the WW2 era nickels. And I also find alot of 1965 quarters, and it kinda makes me mad, lol.

 

Assuming your numbers are correct for there to be a 1% chance of finding a silver Washington quarter in change would mean that close to 20% of ALL silver Washington quarters remain in circulation. Said another way, ONLY 80% of all silver Washington quarters have been removed from circulation. I think that is highly, highly unlikely.

The reality is that almost no silver Washington quarters remain in circulation. Quarters are the workhorse of US coins and, thanks to the State Quarter program, more people than ever look at every quarter they receive in change. The chances of a silver quarter remaining in circulation after this close scrutiny is nil. So how is that someone finds an occasional silver quarter in circulation? More than likely these silver coins slip back into circulation when they are spent by someone who does not know their value (e.g., a child or a thief).

Let's assume that 99.99% of all silver Washington quarters have been removed from circulation. (If anything this figure may be low.) Using your numbers:

Number of silver Washington quarters remaining in circulation =

0.01% X 3.77 Billion = 377,000 quarters

Assuming all 75 Billion clad quarters minted since 1965 remain in circulation (a BIG assumption in light of the State Quarter program) that means the percentage of silver Washington quarters in circulation is:

377,000 / 75 Billion = 0.00005 = 0.005% (or one coin in 20,000)

I doubt your odds are that high of finding one.

 

I think the most common silver found, as mentioned, are Wartime Nickels, 40% Kennedy's, and Dimes (for the 90%).

I've found 2 silver dimes so far, from circulation/register, a 40% and a 90% Kennedy, 3 War Nickels, and....

*drumroll*


ZERO quarters!

 

In my days working at businesses which handled cash I did have the occasional find. Got a full roll about 8 years ago but believe me that was a fluke.

Of course the chances have gone down. The high pitched "ting" of silver grabs a lot of people's attention so they keep it.

People started saving silver coinage in 1965 when you get down to it. I see it when silver is high at work. These same people bring in bags of the stuff at times. Basically what I'm saying is that a LOT of the stuff was put away not long after clad came into circulation.
Th fact that I see a lot high end AU and BU later dates only confirms this.

People also save things that look weird like wheat cents. I've had too many instances when people walk in talking about the "silver penny" they got. I ask them if it's a 1943 and they're amazed. How did he know?!?

I still look at my change and always will. There are still finds to be made but nothing like the past. This is what got me into collecting paper money as well.
There's a lot more to be found IF you know what to look for.

 

I have only found one silver quarter in circulation. It was a 1963 in AU. It was before I really got into coins but I knew what to look for. 2 silver dimes as well. I would like to have that pot is all I can say.

 

People who search rolls of Washingtons hoping to find silver are gluttons for punishment. They are all gone except for the few that pop up now and then when someone's coin collection gets raided. Those usually get spent in a hurry too, and wind up in someone else's collection before they'll make it to a bank's coin counter and back into a roll.

When I decided to start searching rolls I didn't even consider the Washington as an option because the chances of finding anything worth more than 25¢ are almost nil. I narrowed it down to cents, nickles, and halves. I went with halves because I thought they'd not been picked over as much as the denominations we always see in our change every day. I'll do a box of cents once in a while, and have found some neat things occasionally, but I believe halves to be the most rewarding- for me that is.

 

I have found 2 rosies and 2 mercs in the same box of dimes so those aren't all gone either.

 

I was just out to Kadena AB in Japan this November and got an AU 1964 D washington in my change from the shoppette after picking up a soda. Thats the second silver quarter I've gotten in change in three years. Its been more than 6 years since I received a silver dime in my change, although I did find one in the snack bar change tray at work about 6 months ago, so all hope is not lost.

 

A few months ago I went through $600 worth of halves and found NO silver of any kind. The only keeper was a 1974 S. I've had better luck just asking for 5 or 10 rolls at a time instead of a box of 50 rolls.

Bruce

 

Switch to Canadian. I received 2 silver Canada dimes in change the second half of last year and had to search 4 boxes of US dimes to do the same.

 

the only silver I have found was a 44 Washington and 3 rosies in my change. It doesnt seem logical to search quarters anymore from what I'm hearing. I've had some good luck searching cents though

 

Well said. The numbers you have come up with here are what I was trying to get at. I know it was far from a scientific study. This is why I said your odds now are likely far less than a 1% chance. And I agree. To say there's even 377,000 or 0.01% left in circulation is probably too high.

There's no way of knowing everything that has been removed, collected, lost, or destroyed, so I just tried to illustrate the situation from known numbers. Which explained a lot to me.

All things considered though, it should still be rare to get a 1965 quarter. You just wouldn't think so many would still be circulating.

 

As far as silver goes, in the past year.....found a Merc dime and a 55 Washington quarter in AU condition.

 

Well roll searching has gotten a bit carried away as well. I've read posts where people don't even look at the coins, they just take the roll and look at the edges.

There are "treasures" to be found that aren't silver. Have you tried to put together a 1965 - 1999 set of quarters from circulation? You'll find that certain dates are very, very elusive and even more difficult to find in decent grades.

I've found quarters in circulation and in rolls that make the ones in my mint set look pathetic.

There are things to be found, it's just that they don't always give the rush or instant gratification of silver.

 

you have a good point, from november and december i pulled 4 silver quarters from circ at work, all 1964

 

I gave up searching for silver about two years ago. There was a time when there was a reasonable chance of finding some. Then, fairly suddenly, it was like someone turned off the faucet.

 

I had the privilege to pull out a '64 Washington from my brother's piggy bank this summer. This was like within the first week I really started collecting, too. Unbelievably lucky.


Shhhhh....he doesn't know....or collect. or appreciate. I replaced it with 2 quarters anyway, that's fair right??? = P

The fight will still go on for me. I plan on buying a few boxes this summer, probably dimes and maybe a quarter or two...we'll see = )