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Old 03-01-2006, 09:30 PM   #1 (permalink)
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An Analysis of POP Reports of PCGS and NGC 70 Grades...

Every now and then, I get questions from other collectors about the top TPG population reports from PCGS and NGC. I explain how many of these reports are scewed due to crack-outs and resubmissions (especially with Morgans and golds).

But...

And here's the big but...I real feel these reports hold their weight and merit with moderns. Think about it...how many proof 1996 Lincolns would you see being cracked out and resubmitted? If anything, I would bet more are broken out to fill an open slot versus playing the resubmission and crack-out game.

Now...with that said. People have asked me WHY PCGS 70 grades realize way more dollars than NGC 70 graded coins?

[Before I go on, let's not debate if there is such thing as a "perfect" 70 coin under 5 times magnification...if you want to, start another thread]

Well...I could tell them a number of things like marketing, registry sets, PCGS was first on the slab scence, etc.

But...

I really think that PCGS's grading standards are more strict and conservative compared to NGC when it comes to moderns and the holy grail of all grades: 70! Hence another reason why they command higher prices. Okay, that is just my opinion so again, I looked and analysed the POP reports and my conclusions support this opinion.

Let's look at some random coin POPs from 1996 and 2002. Why those years? No particular reason but I figured if anybody was interested in submitting these coins, they would have already done so. Also, I doubt if any collector would really crack out a 69 grade and hope it would grade up to a 70 if they resubmitted back to either PCGS or NGC.

So let's look at these PR70 grade reports for 4 coins from 1996 and 2002:

1996 1c:

57 out of 2142 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 2.66% for PCGS
69 out of 756 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 9.13% for NGC

1996 5c:

46 out of 2354 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 1.95% for PCGS
75 out of 730 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 10.27% for NGC

1996 50c (Plain):

43 out of 1615 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 2.66% for PCGS
28 out of 203 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 13.79% for NGC

1996-P ASE:

41 out of 3254 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 1.26% for PCGS
201 out of 3080 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 6.52% for NGC

Okay, that was 10 years ago...let's look at the same PR70 coins for 2002:

2002 1c:

33 out of 3371 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 0.98% for PCGS
302 out of 2396 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 12.60% for NGC

2002 5c:

56 out of 3209 total submissions received a 70 grade, 1.75% for PCGS
168 out of 2420 total submissions received a 70 grade, 6.94% for NGC

2002 50c:

24 out of 1801 total submissions received a 70 grade, 1.33% for PCGS
123 out of 1090 total submissions received a 70 grade, 11.28% for NGC

2002 $1 ASE:

70 out of 4407 total submissions received a 70 grade, 1.59% for PCGS
1758 out of 8533 total submissions received a 70 grade, 20.60% for NGC

******************************************

So why does PCGS slabbed coins, especially the 70 grades command a steep premium for their 69 and 70 graded moderns?? Just maybe...do you think PCGS is a "bit" more conservative with handing out these grades than NGC?

Could this be another reason why their coins realize these higher premiums over the other TPG's because there are not as many out in the population?

Modern coin grading is HUGE for the TPG's. The TPG's are not idiots. They know the future of their business is with getting us collectors to submit our moderns...and we all know that collectors are paying big bucks for the best of the best.

Look up the numbers, do a little 5th grade math and see for yourself. When you want the best of the best, you have to do some research don't you think?


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Last edited by Midas; 03-02-2006 at 08:11 AM.
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Old 03-02-2006, 12:27 AM   #2 (permalink)
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I think a big part of it is the registry war.
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Old 03-02-2006, 01:27 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Midas - were those pictures taken under identical lighting? The PCGS coin certainly appears to have more frost. Black being black, it's pretty tough to differentiate the mirrored fields.
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Old 03-02-2006, 08:04 AM   #4 (permalink)
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No...they are just stock pics for the first post.

BTW...since you bring it up, let's look at 2005 American Silver Eagle POP figures:

PCGS awarded 109 out of 2204 submissions with a PR70DCAM grade, or 4.95% of their total submissions

For the First Strike Designation for 2005:

PCGS awarded 485 out of 8772 submissions with a PR70DCAM grade, or 5.53% of their total submissions.

NGC does not have a First Strike Designation, but did grade a whopping 13,223 submissions!

Out of these 13,223 submissions, 5,780 received the perfect grade of PR70UCAM (NGC calls it Ultra Cam in lieu of Deep Cam). That 5,780 represents 43.71% of the submissions!!

Is it possible that NGC is getting most of the "perfect" 70 coins? For just 2005, NGC is awarding almost 8 times MORE 70 grades compared to PCGS.

I wonder why that it???
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Old 03-02-2006, 08:07 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Great analysis!
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Old 03-02-2006, 08:30 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Well I won't post in this thread.....I think Midas knows what I think.....
I will say one thing.....I have done some research and NGC might be alittle more open for MS/PF70 grades.....but I do think that they are more strict and conservative when looking at PCGS---I will say that they might be more strict and conservative in every grade other than PF/MS70 but I still have some looking to do before I would say for sure.
Just remember....POP reports are junk.....they really don't mean alot.

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Old 03-02-2006, 09:57 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Interesting statistics. Possibly something to know when shopping at the coin shows. However, I always wonder about such numbers and who made them and where they obtained thier information. I always remember the famous Kinsie Reports that were made into a book that was a really big seller until the sources of the statistics were found to be all corrupted. Sort of like asking people coming out of WalMart if they ever shopped at WalMart.
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Old 03-02-2006, 10:24 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Great analysis Midas! The point of Midas' analysis is a comparison of PF70 and MS70 grades from PCGS and NGC. For this purpose, I would agree with his assumption...that most people don't crack out 69 coins and re-submit them. It's just not worth it for the small percentage that may get a 70 if re-submitted. The analysis is not a comparison of grading amongst all grades, just 70. For that, I don't believe that the numbers lie. Also, I will have to disagree with Speedy. I don't think that the POP reports are all junk. For the MS/PF69 and MS/PF70 modern graded coins, I think that the numbers are probably pretty accurate. They are most likely off some, but not enough to skew the results of Midas' study the other direction. I think this analysis confirms what many people think about the high graded modern coins. Of course, this analysis is only true for coins graded up until today. Things could easily change at the TPGs and go the other way without notice.
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Old 03-02-2006, 05:34 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Thank you tcore...it is the reason why I concentrated this analysis on moderns...for this is the future of TPG's as these coins are the life line of their business going forward.

Collectors are payiing some serious dollars for the "best of the best" and with that said, anybody can see why certain companies realize more dollars for their slabbed products than others...even though both have the SAME posted grade for the SAME coin.

I don't think it would be that much of an issue, but when one TPG gives out 4, 5, 10, 15 times MORE 70 grades than the other...you have to think that the numismatic community is taking notice!

Run your own numbers yourself. Take a look at the number of total submissions for a given coin in a given grade and see how many were graded MS66 versus MS67. Go ahead and make the argument that the given TPG happened to receive MORE MS67 submissions, but when you see a pattern to these numbers, anybody understanding 5th grade math can easily figure them out.
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Old 03-02-2006, 10:06 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Midas's point is that PCGS is stricter (as backed up by his numbers), but I think the scope of that assesment must be limited to the scope of the numbers presented. It appears to me that PCGS is stricter in the way it handles 70 grades for those series. The real question is does this mean that PCGS is stricter across the board or do they just have a greater threshold for 70? Say that both companies have identical satndards for 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, and 69, but when a coin is obviously a 69 and they are inspecting it for the possibility that it is a 70 then PCGS breaks out the 7x magnifying glass to look for blemishes while NGC keeps using their 5x loupes. I'm hypothesizing here, obviously, but it seems clear that PCGS is stricter with the 70 grades, but many insist that NGC is more consistant throughout the 1-70 range, meaning that somewhere there must be a break where NGC ceases to have the same standards as PCGS. Is that break at 69? or is it at 67/68 (like ICG on moderns)?
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Old 03-02-2006, 10:13 PM   #11 (permalink)
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It is in the best interest of PCGS not to hand out a lot of 70 points. The crack out game. Same with NGC for that matter.
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Old 03-02-2006, 10:33 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Cave_Troll
I'm hypothesizing here, obviously, but it seems clear that PCGS is stricter with the 70 grades, but many insist that NGC is more consistant throughout the 1-70 range, meaning that somewhere there must be a break where NGC ceases to have the same standards as PCGS. Is that break at 69? or is it at 67/68 (like ICG on moderns)?

The two companies don't have the same standards on any grade. And in my opinion there is no break point. It is also my opinion that the number of 70 grades assigned by PCGS is also the single greatest indicator of their lack of consistentcy. Anyone who does a close study of the actual coins can see this with their own eyes.

And I mean a study of just the coins graded by PCGS. Go through a few hundred of any modern you choose with all of them graded as 69 by PCGS. Have a couple of 70's for comparison. You'll find at least 25%, maybe 50% of the 69's that can't be distinguished from the 70's. You can do the same thing with just about any grade you choose, but to a lesser degree. That is what is meant by consistency.

Do the same study with a group of coins graded by NGC - you'll get an entirely different result. They actually are consistent.
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Old 03-02-2006, 11:56 PM   #13 (permalink)
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I collect Modern Commemoratives and silver dollars

I have collected for forty years. My opinion and my opinion only, I have found NGC to be the most consistent third party grader for silver dollars: ie, Morgan, Peace and commemorative silver dollars.
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Old 03-03-2006, 02:33 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by GDJMSP
The two companies don't have the same standards on any grade. And in my opinion there is no break point. It is also my opinion that the number of 70 grades assigned by PCGS is also the single greatest indicator of their lack of consistentcy. Anyone who does a close study of the actual coins can see this with their own eyes.

And I mean a study of just the coins graded by PCGS. Go through a few hundred of any modern you choose with all of them graded as 69 by PCGS. Have a couple of 70's for comparison. You'll find at least 25%, maybe 50% of the 69's that can't be distinguished from the 70's. You can do the same thing with just about any grade you choose, but to a lesser degree. That is what is meant by consistency.

Do the same study with a group of coins graded by NGC - you'll get an entirely different result. They actually are consistent.

so your contention is that it is not a result of extra strictness that a coin is less likely to be graded 70 at PCGS, but it is a result of random luck, where equal coins are sometimes given their appropriate grade (70), but most times they are not. I suppose that advantage to this is that it increases the public's (those who cannot grade for themselves) perception that pcgs is more strict, when in fact that isn't the case, but it does serve to inflate the prices of PCGS graded 70 coins.

hmmm, I'd never considered that...


Ed, assuming I've accurately summed up Doug's position, what do you think of that?
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Old 03-03-2006, 03:20 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Some very interesting points have been brought up by all involved. The intent of Midas' analysis was to look at the number of "70" coins from PCGS as opposed to NGC. I suppose that in order for that kind of study to be true, one has to work under the assumption that the grading is consistent at the companies involved. GD's thoughts about inconsistency add a whole new variable into the matter.
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