Guess the Grade-----1941-S Jefferson Nickel NGC

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i am proud of you GD. You ae reinstated inthe royal court with immediate affect,

bring him back up boys

 

finally you have seen the light. i kept telling you they are were and always will be nitwits

 

64. Sometimes Jeffersons look like they have a higher grade that really isn't there.

 

lol @ coinmaster 1, you probably won't see this as you didn't see the last page and a halve of discussions about TPGing gradeflations but it's good to actually read more the then first line of a topic and then post...

As for the topic, I see it both ways.

Doug, Yes grades have changed and there are numerous coins in wrongly graded holders but grading is a art and not a science. Before NGC or PCGS existed grades were moving and changing all the time. That's where the Art part comes in. Like you said if only 80% were correct then 20% are not and if they get resubmitted again that 80% yields another 16% wrong and the wrong # can add up rather quickly.

LeHigh, Yes I agree that there is no "intent" for the company's to be doing this. I feel it is a natural process that is occurring from the resubmitions, inexperienced graders and the fact that the grading process is a moving target in the first place (and art form).

So to summarize: both you are correct in what you say.

 

First, I never said that gradeflation only occurs as the result of mistakes. Mistakes are a small part of the equation. From my earlier posts, I stated that gradeflation is a function of the subjectivity inherent in the grading process.

It is apparent from this post, that you and I completely disagree with what causes gradeflation. Initially, you were claiming that gradeflation was the result of a deliberate loosening of the grading standards. Now you are claiming that the main cause is grading mistakes. What you call a mistake, I call subjectivity.

I submit that a TPG can grade a coin on two different occasions and assign two different grades and be right both times. Now think about that! How can they be right if they coin was graded differently? The answer is that grading is subjective. How many Morgan Dollars have you looked at and thought, that is a tough one because you were undecided whether the coin should be MS64 or MS65. The professional graders face this same situation countless times per day. In fact, the grading process is so subjective that I bet the same grader could grade the same coin differently based solely upon the other coins that he had come in contact with recently. Here is what I mean. A grader sees an MS64/65 Morgan Dollar and grades the coin MS64 because it is in a submission that is full of PQ MS65 Morgans and pales in comparison. The following month, the same coin is resubmitted and this time he grades it MS65 because he has been grading moderns all week. Are you going to say that he made a mistake on one of those grades? If you do, that means that you have never been undecided about the grade of a coin. The simple fact is that the coin in question would be accepted by the market in either grade, MS64 or MS65.

Now consider that each grader has his or her own tendencies regarding grading despite the standards set by the TPG. It is a fact that some graders consider luster more than others, some give more weight to strike than others, and some think surface preservation is of paramount imporatance and are less likely to apply the other market grading factors. When coins are resubmitted, it is very unlikely that they are graded by the same graders. As a result, the combination of graders and their tendencies can result in different grades. Again, I submit that each set of graders can both be right.

I think my estimate of the accuray of the TPG's was higher than that but we can use those numbers if you want. You are saying that the 15-20% are mistakes. I claim that those are coins that are not fully accepted by the market and represent the coins that are candidates for resubmission eventually causing gradeflation. If three graders who covet eye appeal see a coin with MS64/65 surfaces and superb eye appeal, strike and luster, it is very possible that they could grade the coin MS66. If that same coin was graded by three graders who do not like to forgive surface preservation (eg significant marks in focal areas), it is very possible that the same coin could grade MS64. It is hard to say that either grade is incorrect because some collectors will agree with the MS64, others will agree with the MS66, and the rest will think it should be MS65. If the coin is graded MS66, it will stay there. If it is graded MS64, I will almost certainly be resubmitted, upgrade, and result in gradeflation.

My opinion is that gradeflation is an unintended consequence of the inherent subjectivity of the grading process. This is the root cause of our disagreement.

If you are accusing the TPG's of unethical conduct, I think you bear the responsibility to provide the evidence. And for the record, I consider changing company standards without disclosure to increase revenue unethical. I would kindly ask you to stop with the common sense statements. My opinions are very logical and make perfect sense to those that actually decide to keep an open mind when reading them.

When I read Laura Sperber's market report and coin descriptions talking about resubmitting coins to get the higher grade that she feels the coin deserves, that tells me that the TPG's opinion rules. Perhaps it means nothing to you, but to everyone else buying an selling coins, the price of the coin is highly dependent upon the number on the slab. I have said this before Doug, it is a good thing you don't collect coins anymore. If you did, you would never be able to purchase a coin, because you think every TPG graded coin is overgraded and the sellers are not going to sell you an MS65 Morgan Dollar for MS64 simply because you say the coin is an MS64. Their response would be, the TPG says it is MS65, someone else will buy it for MS65 money. In essence, gradeflation has made you retirement from coin collecting permanent. If the industry leaders recognize the supreme imporatance of the THIRD PARTY grade, then I have no problem doing so as well, even if you disagree.

If you were correct, then the TPG's would have no reason to address the gradeflation issue by creating the plus designation. And what happens when a former TPG insider turns whistleblower? Answer, a class action lawsuit. I am sure the TPG's are not as cavalier about this subject as you want us to believe. Gradeflation is a serious problem and I am sure they are committed to finding a solution.

It seems that you want to make this subject very clean and simple. Your theory is basically that the TPG's depend upon resubmission revenues to stay in business. Therefore they intentionally loosen grading standards to ensure resubmissions which results in gradeflation.

In reality, this issue is very complex and a product of many different factors. The fact that this discussion has raged for pages with posts of this length should prove how complex the issue really is.

You believe that gradeflation is the result of an intentional looseing of grading standards to ensure resubmission revenue and I believe that it is an unintended consequence of the inherent subjectivity of the grading process. Neither of us are going to change our minds and it seems fruitless to debate the issue futher without particpation from other members.

 

lol

 

When was the last time you conceded?

 

In all fairness, you could pose that question to either of us.

 

Don't forget me too.

 

The last I know of was http://www.cointalk.com/t120209-2/#post953582