Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by Vess1, Aug 2, 2021.
Party on Wayne. I guess CBs the world over are missing out on more liquid "assets".
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"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" - John Maynard Keynes
Central Banks are "printing money" but the collapse in velocity is offsetting the too much money chasing too few goods fear.
Gold was undervalued in 1933 but it took 40 years to make it's move. You willing to wait ?
Central Banks print CURRENCY. Money is gold as per JP Morgan.
This. I think a certified common-year Saint is a great purchase at any time.
We can debate M1, M1-B, M2, etc.....until the cows come home.
I just think you AVOID buying gold after big run-ups and/or spikes.
Everyone buys at a time they think is “right”. They used to have “white sales” each January, or buy last year’s car models in October. What does that prove?
Now people buy perceived value- even though the king has no clothes on.
I've posted my opinion in Post #10, but I believe the following relative comparison between a very common ~same mintage MS65 1924 Peace Silver Dollar and a MS65 1924 St. Gaudens $20 Double Eagle shows the relative facts. I believe you'll find both certified coins to have the same relative premium regardless of quality TPG selected.
Based on todays' average sales and P.M. coin values, I believe you'll find the following to be true.
A 1924 MS65 St. Gaudens having an intrinsic value of $1746 can be purchased on-line (without tax) for $2395. A P.M. premium of ~37%.
A 1924 MS65 Peace Dollar having an intrinsic value of $19.47 can be purchased on-line (without tax) for ~$200. A P.M. premium of ~1030%.
I'm fallible, but I believe you'll determine the P.M. premium paid for a same date/conditions common Gem Silver Peace Dollar is ~28 times that paid for a $20 Gold Double Eagle.
Premiums moving up a bit on Saints...
An MS-65 1924 Saint went for $2,760 (incl. bp) in late-August on HA. Another NGC MS-65 sold 2 weeks earlier went for $400 less, don't ask me why. Prices were < $2,300 only 2 months earlier in June.
Gold was $,1700 in April and rose $200 into June....so the prices and enthusiasm could have risen in delayed-action explaining why folks paid up in August despite gold backing off to $1,800.
Still, those premiums are RICH and I wonder if lack of inventory and these supply interrruptions have led to rising premiums for gold alongside silver. What's weird is we didn't see these supply interruptions in March-May 2020 during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
You make a fair point, but I do believe that if you look at trading patterns for gold and the premiums, you can decide if you are buying on the cheap or chasing a bubble at times.
I was pretty sure gold had peaked in 2011 @ $1,900/oz.
Today ? I am not sure where the next $100 or $200 move is.....but I believe the next $1,000 is UP !!
Well, there are times when buying a Saint would have been better financially to WAIT. Ironically, when it's usually not a good time to buy a Saint or other numismatic coin, it's usually a good or better time to buy bullion.
From a pure financial perspective -- and believe me, I know that coins are generally LOUSY investments save the experience of pre-1974 purchases -- you improve the return or cut the loss if you time it right.
I note that the return on the 1933 Saint that was recently sold was 5% a year, matching the same return on an immaculate, David Akers favorite 1908-S MS67 CAC that recently sold for about $180,000 but only returned 5% a year since it was last sold.
The only ones I've ever owned were in the early 2000s, when gold was cheap.
I couldn't touch one even at spot nowadays, since I stay down in the two- and three-figure price territory and long ago learned I have no business chasing after four-figure coins. Which, by default, all Saints and double-eagles now are, intrinsically, never mind numismatically.
In my opinion we are destroying the dollar, and U.S. cheap classic certified Gold is a better investment than cash savings.
I've found something to buy every week.
I should have tomorrow a 1914S $20 NGC MS63 CAC Premium Quality Double Eagle, purchased complete with delivery for a $2500 certified personal check in less than 1 week from contact to receipt.
Match That and you'll have a buyer!
JMHO (i.e. A BUYER)
P.S.: Last weeks purchase was a 1927P PCGS MS64+ PQ $20 Double Eagle, for less than $2300, which I believe will CAC .
I don't see gold or Saint-Gaudens Double Eagles selling for < $1,000 again in my lifetime barring some cataclysmic global war or financial meltdown.
Like I said, I have no idea if the next $200 or even $300 for bullion or Saints is UP or DOWN....but I believe the next $1,000 is UP.
Congrats on your purchases, IM.....when you get a chance, show us some pics.
Yep, I doubt I'll ever own one again.
I recall buying a 1908 NM Saint in a PCGS OGH MS63 holder for four hundred bucks- delivered- around '02 or so.
*sigh* Wish I'd kept that stuff.
Kinda hard not to wax nostalgic here.
Yup, I bought some bullion at that time for under $300 but wasn't aware of Saints at the time even though some of my Private Clients were buying them all the time from Blanchard.
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