What is the most over estimate you ever bid?

Discussion in 'Ancient Coins' started by savitale, May 1, 2022.

  1. savitale

    savitale Well-Known Member

    There is a coin coming up where I am prepared to bid 24x the estimate. I think the estimate is about 10x below where it should be, I'm not sure what thought went into their number.

    What's the most above estimate you were ever wiling to bid? Feel free to share the coin if you were successful.
     
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  3. hotwheelsearl

    hotwheelsearl Well-Known Member

    I sometimes wonder what they’re thinking with some estimates. I recently saw a lot of 10 sestertii that estimated at $50. Not sure what world that would ever happen
     
  4. AncientJoe

    AncientJoe Supporter! Supporter

    My bid was 50x estimate but I bought it for a mere 26x (a bargain!) I paid a record price for the type but their estimate was laughable. Some auction houses try to make it seem as if their marketing/positioning is the cause of incredible hammers; I'd instead counter saying that an auction house doesn't have a fairly accurate feel of where coins will sell and consistently dramatically under or over-estimates, they're either being deliberately misleading, lazy, out of touch, or all three.

    Pharos.jpg

    Æ-drachm, year 18 (= 133/134), Alexandria (Aegyptus); 26.48 g. Draped bust r. with laurel wreath // Isis Pharia stands r. with a billowing sail, in front of it Pharos. Dattari 1767; Goats 1124; Kampmann / Ganschow 32,589; RPC 5895.

    Ex. MM 13, June 17-19, 1954, lot 946
     
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  5. The Meat man

    The Meat man Supporter! Supporter

    The most I've ever gone is maybe 50% over? Lots of times I buy under estimate.

    Seems to vary quite a bit, and not take into account popular demand sometimes. On CNG at least, coins that are common (but highly sought-after) such as the Athena/owl tetradrachms, Shekels of Tyre, etc. often seem to have unrealistically low estimates.
     
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  6. DonnaML

    DonnaML Well-Known Member

    I think I went up to around 9 or 10x the estimate for an M. Volteius snake biga a few months ago, but still didn't win. The estimates for Roman Republican denarii with interesting reverses, in more than decent condition, have not caught up to the auction prices, for the most part.
     
  7. savitale

    savitale Well-Known Member

    I have a feeling that estimates for some coins just get the generic treatment. Small bronze, $50. Republican denarius, $200. Aureus, $3000. Or something like that. I certainly get the reasons for setting an estimate on the low side, say 50%, but for examples like these (and the one in my original post) I think maybe they aren't even trying.
     
  8. savitale

    savitale Well-Known Member

    That sounds so ridiculous I wonder if it was an error.
     
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  9. savitale

    savitale Well-Known Member

    You live a blessed life. :happy:
     
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  10. nerosmyfavorite68

    nerosmyfavorite68 Well-Known Member

    My respect for DonnaML's collection was already high, but skyrocketed when she mentioned the most she had paid for a single coin. So, if I was reading correctly, it was approximately what mine was. Donna must be a shrewd buyer :joyful:. Those are some great coins.

    About the only auctions I do anymore are occasional record auctions. Grr, I put in more than it was worth on Arthur Godfrey, but still lost. Usually those go cheap.

    But in answer to the topic, I'm not sure, I think 0. I remember bidding in some Matt Kreuzer auctions, but the ones I 'won' were remainder lots. Ditto Alex Malloy.
     
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  11. The Meat man

    The Meat man Supporter! Supporter

    Well I can't argue with that. :)
     
  12. DonnaML

    DonnaML Well-Known Member

    I don't think I've said anything like that recently, so I suspect you may have misunderstood. Up until about a year ago I had never paid more than $1,000 for a single coin, but more recently my three solidi all cost between $1,000 and about $2,200, as did my Augustus cistophorus and my L. Memmius/Dioscuri denarius. And my two aurei, one of Vespasian and one of Antoninus Pius, each cost quite a bit more than that.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2022
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  13. nerosmyfavorite68

    nerosmyfavorite68 Well-Known Member

    Ah, well still close enough. They're still nice buys.
     
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  14. tibor

    tibor Supporter! Supporter

    Over the past 6 years, I have put in pre bids of up to 15x estimate.
    The coins are listed as common in some guides but rarely come to
    auction or sale. My bid depends on the rarity and quality of the coin.
    Many times I pre bid two weeks in advance and get notifications that
    I have been out bid, recently with a 300 Euro coin that I had a 4500
    Euro pre bid on. Sold for 7500 Euros. Sometimes I'm lucky and win
    with a 5-6x estimate.
     
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  15. tibor

    tibor Supporter! Supporter

    1375 Aachen 2022.jpg
    Won this for just 2.5x estimate. The condition makes it a bargain.
    1391 Schonforst 2022.jpg
    Won for 4x estimate. Once again the condition is remarkable.
     
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  16. TypeCoin971793

    TypeCoin971793 Just a random guy on the internet

    There was a British auction which had an AU early American Copper coin, and a rare variety to boot! Estimate was £50. A dealer and I bid £2500.

    The auction podium was being livestreamed. The look on the auctioneer’s face when the lot came up was priceless.
     
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  17. pprp

    pprp Well-Known Member

    You are forgetting the world record you set at 1150x times the starting price for that triform fraction :)
     
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  18. Terence Cheesman

    Terence Cheesman Well-Known Member

    I cannot say just how far I have gone over the estimates as I generally ignore them. I tend to look at the coin and try to assess what I think it is worth to me. There have been a number times lately that I thought that the opening was too high. I did push one coin to 15 times its estimate but did not get it. This happened in the NYINC auctions and I was bidding in my own mind rather insanely. On a number of different coins during those auctions I bed on a number of coins to levels I thought were stupid and lost every one of them. Oddly the only coins I won, I thought I got them at a reasonable amount. Curious. I did push this one to slightly over double estimate but I really liked it
    Nagidos Ar Stater 333-323 BC Obv Head of Dionysos right wearing wreath of ivy. Rv. Head of Aphodite right. SNG Levante 2 11.14 grms 20 mm Photo by W. Hansen nagidos3.jpg I was so impressed with the portrait of Dionysos I simply decided to ignore the problems on the reverse. I will say that I was close to my limit, but I cannot remember exactly how many more bids I would been willing to make.
     
    Last edited: May 2, 2022
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  19. seth77

    seth77 Well-Known Member

    I once went 3x over my initial ballpark for a 'revolt of Poemenius' light centenionalis with a pedigree.
     
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  20. Al Kowsky

    Al Kowsky Well-Known Member

    I admit to losing control at more than one coin auction :shame:. The most recent example was a Seleukeia tetradrachm of Tyche, from Roma Auction XX, October 2020. For the longest time I had been searching for a nice example of a Seleukeia Tet depicting Tyche on the obverse. I bid $750.00 for an example at CNG Feature Auction 102, May 2016, pictured below. The coin had an estimate of $1,000.00 & hammered for $950.00 ($1,092.00 with buyers premium). I decided to use this coin that I missed as a benchmark for future coins that appeared at auction. This coin type is very common & well worn examples on undersized flans can be had for $200/300, but choice examples on full size flans can get very pricey.

    CNG 102, lot 585, May 2016, $1,092.00.jpg
    CNG 102, Lot 585. Seleukeia & Pieria, 105-83 BC, (dated Civic Year 6, 104/103 BC). AR Tetradrachm: 14.91 gm, 32 mm, 12 h.

    When I spotted the Roma example pictured below I was mesmerized :jawdrop:, and the estimate was only 500 GBP ($628.00). I logged into the auction armed with my Visa Card & was determined to win this coin :mad:!

    Roma XX, lot 292 image, $2,263.00. Oct. 2020.jpg
    ROMA XX, Lot 292. Seleukeia & Pieria, 105-83 BC (dated Civic Year 18, 92/91 BC). AR Tetradrachm: 15.00 gm, 36 mm, 12 h. Estimate 500 GBP.

    I ended up paying 1,800 GBP (including the buyers premium) $2,263.00 :eek: for the coin. I don't know if I could ever get my money back if I decided to sell this coin & really don't care :p. It's one of my favorite coins & I haven't seen an equal to it yet :happy:.
     
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  21. CaptHenway

    CaptHenway Survivor

    $4,000 for a Honduran rarity grossly misattributed and estimated at $25. I did not get it.
     
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