Survey

Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by Andy, Dec 4, 2004.

  1. Andy

    Andy Coin Collector

    Repeat had posted an interesting thread on a topic that has been discussed on this forum before and is basically what would the future of coin collecting/investing be?

    I wish to take an informal survey for the heck of it. If you will, please answer the following:

    1. Do you think that the minting of coins and pressing of bills will cease in the near future due to credit cards, debit cards, directed withdrawls, direct deposits, etc...?

    2. If hard money ceases to be in circulation, do you feel that this will destory the interest of coin collecting circulated coins and/or coin collecting of uncirculated coins that were issued before any halt in production?

    3. If hard money ceases to be in circulation and the minting of silver and gold coins for government profit continues, do you feel that this in effect would cause an explosion for coin collectors of gold and silver coins or would only delay the collapse of the hobby/investment future?

    Note: There could be no proven correct answer as of now on this topic. Henceforth, all responses that are appropriate in content and stay on subject mattter should be taken seriously with respect by all.

    Post Script: Lurkers and infrequent posters are encouraged to join this discussion.
     
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  3. jody526

    jody526 New Member

    1. No, I don't think coins and paper money will stop being produced in our lifetime.

    2. I don't think coin collecting will ever cease to exist, but interest would definately be affected by them no longer being in circulation.

    3. I wouldn't classify government issued bullion as collectible coins, so I don't see them having an effect on the hobby one way or the other.
     
  4. sylvester

    sylvester New Member

    1. No i do not, the mints are making money out of them, thus they have an incentive to carry on minting and the governments will let them because they're running at a profit. When they stop running at a profit then the tables will turn.

    2. Au Contraire, i personally only collect coins once they've left circulation for good. It's my rule, don't collect current coins, i generally wait till they've been demonetised. I often find it to be the case that when something is all around people take it for granted and don't give two hoots. Take it away and people suddenly become interested. I think coin collecting as a hobby could actually grow once coins are consigned to the pages of history. Like sports cards and things, they might actually be cooler.

    3. I don't agree with the logic on point three because i answered 2 differently. I reckon bullion will stay as is, it's lumps of gold and will always be treat as lumps of gold. Modern bullion 'coins' are not coins but round bits of precious metal that trade for certain prices, they'll follow those prices.
     
  5. National dealer

    National dealer New Member

    I don't think that we will see coins and currency disappear in our lifetimes. While we as a whole are moving towards a cashless society, people as a group love to hold their money in their hand. Tangible assests will always win out.
    Coin collecting has been around for too many years to disappear easily. If for some reason we did move into a cashless society, I believe coin collecting would grow at a level never before seen.
    Bullion doesn't have a lot of effect on coin collecting as a whole. Foriegn governments rely on bullion far exceeding any collector demand.
     
  6. sylvester

    sylvester New Member

    I'm glad you agree with me ND, I think we'd have a coin collecting would boom if we went cashless.
     
  7. cdb1950

    cdb1950 Senior Member

    I hope that coins will be in circulation for a long time.
    The thing about a hobby is that there has to a 'hook' to interest the new/young collector. When I was a kid, there were lots of cool things to collect in circulation. My favorites were Buffalo nickels, Walking Liberty halves, Mercury dimes, steel pennies, and silver dollars. In 1965, circulating coinage became rather dull, with the introduction of Cupro-Nickel clad coinage. In the 1970's and early 1980's, there was a concern that this might create a very tiny next generation of coin collectors because of the rather unexciting coinage in circulation. No silver, all the older design coins were totally gone, no 'hook' to spark interest in the next generation of collectors. A numismatic lobby was created to do something that would spark interest in young folks so there would be a large base of new collectors for the next generation. This was the impetus for the 1976 Commerative coins in circulation, then the Anthony dollar, and the 1982 George Washington half dollar, commemorating the 150th anniversary of his birth. Since then, this lobby has promoted the idea that there should be something in circulation to get kids interested in collecting, culminating to date with the States Quarters and new nickel commems. I'm thinking that most adult coin collectors today started as kids, picking something out of circulation that was odd or unusual, then wanted to know more. It seems to be happening again with the States Quarters program, as just about every family in America has some sort of quarter collection. This should translate into a huge collector base a few years down the road. I don't think this would have happened if there wasn't something in circulation to pique the interest of someone who had never thought of collecting coins before. CDB
     
  8. cdb1950

    cdb1950 Senior Member

    P.S. Collecting bulliouin 'coins' does not appeal to me. CDB
     
  9. rick

    rick Coin Collector

    1. Will it ever? Of course! But I do agree with Jody in so much as it will not happen in our lifetime, nor probably our next - if you believe in that sort of thing. I suspect that long before you see this change, a prereq. for this event would be a complete single global economy... it's the only way it would really work, because I see way too many flaws in the idea in a decentralized market system.

    What I could see happen would be a minting but not circulating system - but the cash would have to exist as emergency back up, because such a system of trust lends to a return to the old 'bank run' panic that led up to the crash.

    2. I doubt it. Assuming that it ever happens, I think it would have the opposite effect, people would horde, and that would make collecing an explosive commodity.

    3. I don't think I understood the correlation on that one.
     
  10. WINS7

    WINS7 New Member

    1. Around 75-85% of daily transactions take place using plastic or checks now and these little items have only been around a short time. If you ask the average person on the street if they would rather have a pocket full of change or bills, the answer will be bills. Asked if they wouyld rather have bills or plastic, the answer will be plastic. When asked why, most answer that coins and bills are a pain to bother with and palstic is much simpler. While coins and currency might not disappear in my lifetime, most of you youngsters are going to witness it. It is coming,... the end is near.

    2. I think there will be a surge as serious collectors scramble for what's left, but it will fall off and very few new collectors will join the fray.

    3. I think there are less bullion collectors than you might think. Bullion is collected or horded for it's content rather than as a coin.
     
  11. sylvester

    sylvester New Member

    What i think we'll address, or should adress is what kinda collector's we're on about.

    Serious collectors who outlay lots of money per coin will grow in number, collectors who are serious about their change will die out.

    As i and the majority of my fellow countrymen are of the former we'll not even notice. Where there is a tradition of newbies entering through pocket change like the US though there'll have to be a shift in collector type, if the shift takes place em masse then the hobby will grow, if it does not then it will shrink.
     
  12. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator


    #1 - First of all - to answer this question one would have to define " in the near future ". Depending on your perspective, the near future could be next year or the next century & beyond. It would also depend on whether you were asking the question in regard to the USA only - or the world.

    That being understood, I think yes - coins and printed money will disappear from use within the US sometime in the next century but not entirely. Do you realize that there are areas within the US where people still do not have running water or indoor plumbing ? - most people do not. But it is true. And that being said - it is highly unlikely that in such areas electronic commerece will be the norm. And it will certainly not be the norm in underdeveloped countries.

    #2 - To answer this question you must first define what constitutes a collector. Is the person who pulls change out of their pocket and drops it into a jar or can with no interest in the dates & mint marks or separation of the coins a collector ? Using the term loosely yes. But since these people acquire their coins from circulation - if coin circulation is stopped - rather obviously they will stop collecting.

    But my personal definition of a collector is one who buys at least some of the coins in his collection. With this group, some will leave the hobby & some will not. And among the group of collectors that buy all of the coins in their collection - the majority will certainly continue. And the number will likely increase with the number of those leaving the hobby staying the same as it is now. For those in this group that leave the hobby do so for reasons other than the coins not being available in circulation.

    #3 - If this question is in regard to only those gold & silver coins currently being sold by the govt. - then my answer is no, it will have no effect. For those who collect what many refer to as bullion coins do not do so becasue the coins are in circulation or not. They do so because they choose to collect them. And it is a huge mistake to think that there are no collectors of these coins - that people only buy them for bullion value. The marketplace proves that many do indeed collect these bullion coins. The huge number of these coins that people have paid to have slabbed prove this. As do the large premiums that others pay for these slabbed bullion coins.
     
  13. sylvester

    sylvester New Member

    I agree with GD's second point to be a collector of coins you have to actually buy some of your coins. Collecting totally from change is more hoarding, perhaps with a date focus but it's not collecting in the sense i'd think of.
     
  14. RePeat

    RePeat New Member

    Being such a newbie to this forum and to this hobby, I'm glad I was able to spark a chain of great discussions. I and many other new-commers value the insight many experienced enthusists share here.

    Like ND posted above, I too greatly feel, or rather hope, that this industry will continue to prosper, even when circulated money becomes obsolete.
     
  15. Dockwalliper

    Dockwalliper Coin Hoarder

    I don't see us going cashless in the near future, but if we did I don't agree that it would be a boom to coin collecting. So many collectors start by searching pocket change or thru things like the state quarter program and these would be gone. We would lose the fresh blood of the hobby. Out of site, out of mind. Collecting would never stop just become a hobby for "Old rich guys". Bullion coins would have a following as they would become the only new issues for the collectors that remained.
     
  16. susanlynn9

    susanlynn9 New Member

    1. I think money will continue to be minted for a long time - at least through our great grandchildren's lifetimes.
    2. If production is stopped, I think interest in the hobby will soar, driving the price of collectible coins sky high, and therefore causing it to be a hobby geared more for the rich.
    3.Bullion is a different animal and I don't think affect coin collecting.
     
  17. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Hmmmm - two comments about coin collecting becoming something only the rich can do. Well I guess you'd have to define rich. But you not remember what they call coin collecting ?

    The Hobby of Kings ;)

    So if it does come to pass - then I guess you could say it has come full circle. Of course it took 2000 yrs ( so far ) to do so.
     
  18. sylvester

    sylvester New Member

    Some coins will still be as cheap in the next hundred years as they are now, whether coins still circulate or not. Some coins have such high mintages, and other coins from little known places and isands will simply still not get the interest they deserve. Some coins will rise in value, but somehow i doubt you're average 1984 cent will be at the forefront of that.
     
  19. Andy

    Andy Coin Collector

    This is a very cogenial discussion as well as a survey. I also noticed that the newbies posts are as interesting as our "experts". I like to think of those experts as my coin collecting friends and the more the newbies post the more they will feel as if they are at a friend's home as well if not already. If there are any lukers out there, please join in. I am sure that your viewpoint will make us all think as well.
     
  20. Prethen

    Prethen Senior Member

    In the near future (20 years or so), I don't see cash coming out of society. However, 50 years or so down the line, I see it could be a very logical move to get away from currency and coins. It's true that a huge number of transactions (likely, a large majority) use no cash at all every day. There's really only one major item (and I'm sure a lot of little ones can be thought of) stopping the pulling of all cash out of circulation today....personal transactions.

    Now, imagine carrying a piece of plastic (much like one of your credit cards you own today) that "knew" you through biometric means (say, your thumbprint). Assume this piece of plastic as a simple interface that allows it to "communicate" with other cards that other people carry. Voila...you've just solved the personal transaction problem. To be honest, I think technically it can happen today. It won't. It will take decades of refining electronic transactions and perfecting the system.

    Trading with bits of paper and metal are somewhat inefficient in a highly efficient, digital world. Yes, they'll go away. We're already seeing some of it happen now. When will cash go away...it'll take time...who knows. But, I think it's reasonable to see it really start to occur within 50 years or so.

    Look at Europe. I understand they're doing more and more with micro-transactions (the same as we're trying to do here).

    As far as coin collecting goes....well, I think we're toast (just personal opinion/gut feeling) when cash is no longer in everyone's pockets. No, the hobby won't die instantly or completely. But, I think it would definitely be in trouble. If people don't see the item on a daily basis, they typically won't be encouraged to collect it. A good example of this is the odd denomination coinage of the United States like 2-3-20 cent coins. Yes, they are collectible and sell at a premium but when comparing their mintages and survivability against nickels, dimes, quarters, halves, and dollars the odd denominations are a serious underdog. Why? When was the last time you saw a 3-cent coin in circulation? Most people don't even know about these coins, much less want to collect them (except for me and a few of you!). A similar thing will happen when NO denominations are in circulation.

    I wonder if the Mint would actually still produce bullion coins if there were no more circulating coins. Maybe they would. If they did, then it might cause similar gold/silver coins from a bygone era to be highly collectible. Who knows?
     
  21. National dealer

    National dealer New Member

    There are areas here in America that work on a cashless system. The US Navy has a program that works off of a credit card type of transaction. All monies earned are put into this account, and they spend without the aid of any type of currency.
    While I see the trend leaning towards this, I personally believe that as a whole, people like to hold something tangible in their hands.
    You have to take into consideration that people collected coins when many other forms of payment were still available. Hence the name "hobby of kings"
     
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