Re: Gold status past few days

Quote from one of the investment sources I use and receive daily, The Gartman Letter...

"

Further, friends in the gold business
tell us that the GLD ETF’s gold holdings were
unchanged yesterday at 1,029 tonnes… the first time
in some while it has been unchanged for three days in
a row. That suggests that the market is tired, and
when coupled with the MarketVane data, does cause
us some concern."

Combined with the technical chart...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p14226793245

the steam on gold is running out.​

 

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Don't count it out yet.

 

I'm with Danr. Too early to say that just yet. I think there is a serious potential for some more upward movement.

 

I don't know. All I know is that the premium for the metal when you buy is back to normal and all of the local shops have plunty of gold, unlike earlier. That tells me that more people are selling right now, and that the demand is down. The price might go up, but it may be a while.

 

For all you gold bugs... dont get me wrong, this is not the end of 1k gold.... not by far. but... this time it aint happening.

Gold is an inflation hedge. Right now, we are in a deflationary environment. Until the economy shows signs of recovery gold has no legs to stand on.

The more i am listening to this bs (obama's address to congress), all i see is dollar signs in his eyes. His budget comes out soon... another 2 trillion in spending?

take a look at japan.... they are in a stagnated economy.

Gold going up will need these recepies....

US economy, worldwide economy starting to recover,
More government spending,
weaker dollar,
higher commodities.

throw it together, and you got hyperinflation.

Gold as a fear play right here is not playing out. sorry, if there is one thing people eat up is a great speech... too bad they cant read into the underlying.

 

View the updated chart with todays numbers.

MACD history (strentgh of hte move) is dying down, CCI is now crossing and a sign to short, Physical gold price is out of the buy zone.

 

My "buy zone" is $300 to $500

 

a suggestion...

If you really want to see what Au's future is compare it to the m3 supply.

From what I've discerned, the Federal Reserve will continue to 'print' as long as the US Gov't continues to spend and borrow.
As long as these US Gov't policies continue along with the FED's lowering of interest rates, Au and PMs in general will continue their bull run.

IMO Au has been on a 'bull' run since 1974

DYODD

 

Only thing is, look at japan, they have a higher money supply and spending as portion of gdp. they are ok.

Money supply can be tightened up... but yes, longer term.... :hatch:

 

That is the big trick the Fed is going to have to play. I don't think it's feasible to leave all of that stimulus dough out in the market forever without some nasty inflation eventually. If they contract the money supply too soon, before our economy has gotten back on an even footing, then they risk undoing it all and we go back to depression and beyond!

What I am confident of is that I will be genuinely surprised if I see $200/oz. gold again in my lifetime.

 

I would be surprised to see it at 200 myself, unles there is a deflationionary depression. Then again, no one swore we would see $30 oil either.

$500 may be quite feasable.... Look at it this way. Platinum was at 1k when gold was at 350. Right now, platinum and gold almost same price.

Check out the chart I put together, here as pdf. Gold vs silver vs plat.

 

Anyone notice how when oil was near the high, housing near the high, all the buzz was there right before the fall?

Now every other commercial on CNBC is about gold coins... If you didnt think it can get any better...

http://apmex.com/milliondollarcoin/Default.aspx?utm_source=Segment+3&utm_campaign=fa959ce5ce-02%2F24+Golden+Goose+Lays+220+lb.+Nest+EGG%21&utm_medium=email

100kg Canadian Maple Leaf

 

At a current mint of 5 coins, I am sure the thing will appreciate but really, who besides a large organization (using it as corporate art or something) could practically, secure and display something like that?

 

I can run with that .. but i also doubt i will ever buy gold again!! i doubt the price will ever drop that low... but anything is possible, i just wont hold my breath

 

3k troy oz, so about 3.5 mil in todays price..... if you are a 100ml networth, I can defnitely be your natural resources/precious metal sleeve of your portfolio....

it would also crush you if it fell on you. =)

and if gold does fall below $330 or canadian dollar strengthens... this coin would be worth more as a coin than as bullion. Imagine paying for a house rolling in a 220lb coin into the room.... drop it on the meeting table... table cracks. $1 mil loonie dollars face value.

realistically, you can buy the coin for the bullion. Buy some puts or future contracts against it. If gold falls in value, you make some money.

 

Japan... ok??? They're still suffering from the "lost decade"
- Oct 2008 the Nikkei reached a 26 year low.
- Japanese deflation due to real estate and equities still prevalent (negative IMO)
- Insolvent banks
- Toyota's rating downgraded
- Japanese citizens invest in Au/Pt

and as you stated just as The US Japan's money supply has increased along with a record trade deficit.

If...
- the money supply isn't 'tightened'
- the interest rates are not increased
- US Gov't spending isn't reduced
- the US budget isn't balanced

Au will continue to rise against the $.

Again, Au in...
1933 = $20
2009 = $897

 

Lol, imagine if the house was only worth $500,000...

I'll take my change in gold eagles please!

 

$400 of which is pure inflation.

Like I said, dont get me wrong... gold is a speculative play, it is a long term hedge against inflation.

I will gold will hit $1500 soon, but before hitting $1500, it will come back down to the 700's, or possibly lower. GOLD WILL NOT likely get to $1500 on fear. it will get to $1500 on increased demand for jewelry, and speculators getting in to hedge inflation.

The fear in the markets is subsiding, one example is the Vix which is down, volatility is down. So It couldnt crack past $1050 on that.

Furthermore, Gold is not being followed by any other metal... for it to crack, it would be alot easier if they were going up with the economy. Remember oil? Was overpriced at $100, went up to $147.50 when everyone was thinking that China, India, Russia were going to use it all up.

 

One last thing, Japan and USa... USA is a spend spend spend economy. Listen to the messiah speek yesterday? The way out of this mess is to spend... How did we get in trouble? people spending too much, and are broke.

Japan... they government blew up the money supply, and the difference, key difference, the economy did not need the infrastructure, etc. Their people are savers... not spenders.

As far as analysts... let me be the first to tell you...

The ratings are all bs, and most analysts are not any smarter. when a ratings agency cuts, it is too late. When an analyst recommends something, too late...

For what its worth... we just downgraded GM stock to Sell.
As far as toyota, that was my college business case. Most of toyota's troubles are from the united states, not japan.

 

So just as the chart predicted, opportunity to buy is near. I would not be surprised to see 875 by end of this week if not sooner.