Pop./Value of Gold Escudo/Doubloon Coins?

Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by panamagold, Oct 19, 2009.

  1. panamagold

    panamagold Junior Member

    Anyone have info. on this? I'm interested in getting an idea of the value of 1700 and 1800 Spanish Escudo coins.

    I haven't had any luck on getting an idea of populations of the coin.

    PG
     
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  3. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    And you likely won't.

    If you want an idea of value, that you can get. But populations ? Not a chance. But if you want approximate values, then post good quality, large pictures of the each coin individually and we can give you approximate values.
     
  4. panamagold

    panamagold Junior Member

    Interesting. How do they determine value of these coins? I've seen a book which shows some coins have drastically greater values that the others, but don't seem to have a clear reason as to why. Here is a pic.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  5. MissSasha

    MissSasha Junior Member

    I'd assume the pricing is based on supply and demand, much like any commodity. And a "commodity" is anything that can be bought and sold.
     
  6. panamagold

    panamagold Junior Member

    That goes back to my original question of population which I believe = supply. If you don't know the supply, how can the pricing be determined?

    PG
     
  7. MissSasha

    MissSasha Junior Member

    um, yet again, supply AND demand.

    If the commodity appears to be in short supply, price will rise. Regardless of weather we know the amount available or not.

    If item A is 10x times harder to find then item B, item A will generate higher offers (thus prices) due to smaller supply.

    Determining the price involves looking at market rate and past transactions.


    I think I learned this back in 10th grade in high school economics class.
     
  8. panamagold

    panamagold Junior Member

    You're correct, it's supply and demand. My issue is with the supply part of the equation. You're assuming if an item "appears" to be in short supply that knowledge is sufficient to determine the value of said object. I disagree, that method for determining a price at best a guess.

    Mike
     
  9. MissSasha

    MissSasha Junior Member

    No, you are not getting the whole picture. It's REALLY simple, the price is determined by what someone is willing to pay for it. There's just no way i can explain that concept any simpler!

    If someone wants the coin, and there aren't many known examples of that year/variety, they will pay what they wish for it. If there's no known mintage #'s, REALLY no known numbers whatsoever that can ever be found, aka they just don't exist, it's not "a guess", it's a free market price.

    This is how economics works, you can disagree with me all you want, but that's just the way this works. You can argue 'till you are blue in the face that it's not precise, but that's the way the academic explanation of supply/demand pricing works.

    I'm not being catty BTW, just having a hard time explaining this to you.
     
  10. panamagold

    panamagold Junior Member

    O.K., I'll respond on the basis that you're not being catty. :)
    Yes, I agree with you in principal and theory. Yes, you are correct the market sets the price. Yes, I know there are cases in which this is considered to be reasonable. Such as the guy that sells a $500.00 power generator for $5000.00 to a poor soul who's lost his home during a hurricane. It's true that this is supply and demand in action, but it's not always a "fair" market price.

    To be a little more fair, lets say you're shopping for a pair of black jeans, you go to a store and find they only have one pair and it's priced 2x the common blue jeans that are readily available in that store. Is that 2x price on that pair of jeans the market price? I'd say no, it happens to be the price that retailer/store believes they can get for their jeans. If the customer doesn't care/question availability of the jeans they may find that price to be acceptable. However, customer B, may ask the question, "How many of these jeans are available on the market?" go down the street to another store and find they carry plenty of black jeans at the same price as blue jeans.

    In that case, what's the fair market price of black jeans?

    O.K., back to the coin. Back in the day they may have not tracked the count of coins minted. O.K., that's fair. However, today it is possible to either guess or have a running count of known examples of a particular coin. If a current tally of the coins is known, that would give a better idea of the value of the coin. If it turns out that tomorrow they find a huge stash of the same coins, well I guess at that point your SOL.

    I'm willing to accept that as an issue, but I'd like buy a coin based on the current accepted or established fair market value for a coin.

    PG
     
  11. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    In a great many cases mintage numbers are known, in great detail. But mintage numbers are not what matters, never have been. What matter is how many survive today. Or as you originally asked - what is the population ?

    Yes it is possible, but as I said earlier, you likely won't find one. What it takes to find that out is experience. You have to know the market. And you cna only know the market by doing a great deal of research and spending a whole lot of time studying. What do you study ? You study auction catalogs and realized prices that cover decades.


    This is much easier to find out. All you have to do is look up recent realized auction prices. Of course you also have to be able to judge the condition of each coin so that you know where among those realized prices the coin in question will fall. In other words, you have to be able to accurately grade the coin in question. That part, that takes time to learn.

    However, if you do look up realized prices for any given coin, and then compare those to the realized prices for another similar but different coin (different date, mint) - then you will begin to have a pretty good idea, not what the population is, but if the population is larger or smaller than the similar coin. For the prices paid are typically paid by people in the know. People who have already done all the work that you need to do yet. In other words, the market tells what you want to know.

    And next your going to ask - how do you know that the market is right ? The simple fact is - it doesn't matter if it is right or not. A given coin is going to sell at the current market no matter what.

    And that's what others were trying to tell you. And if you are not willing to pay what the market says - then you won't get the coin. It's just that simple.
     
  12. Ardatirion

    Ardatirion Où est mon poisson

    It seems that the problem here is you're trying to place a definite value on supply, when only a rough estimate is available.
     
  13. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    As for the picture you posted, forgot to address that. The coin should grade AU53, but it wouldn't suprise me any if NGC graded it 58, or even higher.

    It's a common date and mint and they are readily available. But the series is quite popular right now and they go for premium prices.

    If you want to know what those prices are you can either do a great deal of work or you can spend $600 and subscribe to Coin Archives.com. Then can easily look up current realized prices at your leisure.
     
  14. panamagold

    panamagold Junior Member

    I agree with you on all of these points, I've tried to do the legwork on the coin, but have found very little on past auction prices for this coin. This is why I was looking for help from an expert that could give me an approx. value on the coin in todays market. Could you take a shot at an estimate? When you say readily available, does that also apply to the AU53 condition?

    Also, do you happen to have favorites in this coin? Denomination, country, years? I've been looking at the 1/2, 1, 2, 4, and 8's. Seems the 8's are the best value, but haven't seen any in a slab in my price range :)

    Mike
     
  15. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Well I'm no expert. Far from it. And to be honest I have done little in the past year to even try and keep up with pricing. Just haven't had the time. But just a wild guess - anywhere from $600 to a $1000 for that coin.


    Me, no. No favorites. But I always preferred the colonial mints over Spain. They are also more expensive as a general rule. The 8 escudos of the colonial mints and Spain will range in price from $3000 for AU to $5000 or more for MS. But be careful, even those slabbed by TPG's are often not really MS.

    I guess the question to ask is - what is your price range ? You may be swinging at windmills.
     
  16. panamagold

    panamagold Junior Member

    Thanks for the input, I'm not looking to spend that amount of coin :). I'm looking more for something in the 300 to 700 range. Just wanted to have one nice historical piece. I should be focusing on bullion coins, but these caught my eye. Trying to preserve money more than being a collector, but I have a natural penchant for collecting.

    Mike
     
  17. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Then look for a nice Pillar dollar, those you can find in your range. Google Dan Sedwick, he's a dealer you can trust and he sells them.

    They look like this -
     

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  18. DriftHappy

    DriftHappy Wears BigBoy Pants******

    I would search something like icollector.com for an approximate current market value or even search eBay by "ended listings". I have a 1774/3 1/2 Escudo in my collection, paid $175 for it about a year and a half ago. Now they seem to be trading for about $100 more than that.

    I saw a raw 1788M 2 Escudo in AU sell for about $350 but there were some other common date ones, a NGC AU-55 & a PCGS AU-58 that brought $500. All of these were sold on icollector.com last week.
     
  19. panamagold

    panamagold Junior Member

    Thanks for the insight. Didn't know some had sold on icollector.com. I was a bit surprised at their premiums, thought the prices even with premiums look better than Ebay.

    PG
     
  20. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Be very wary of raw examples. There are probably more fakes out there than there than there are real coins. Never buy a raw one unless you have complete and utter faith and trust in the person selling it to you.
     
  21. DriftHappy

    DriftHappy Wears BigBoy Pants******

    Glad I could help. The Escudos are definitely a great value for investing and are obviously very neat coins. People always spark up a conversation when they see them. It just stinks that there are no up-to-date values on them, unlike modern gold coins. Good luck!
     
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