Looking Bad

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Mr. Coin Lover, Sep 29, 2010.

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  1. Mr. Coin Lover

    Mr. Coin Lover Supporter**

    I, of all people, should never forcast the future of precious metals. But, the way I see it if anyone is decently current on news in the US and Europe one cannot help but see things are bad. Not just bad here, but in Europe as well.

    We all know what a shambles our economy is in right now with the debt, unemployment, and wars we can't seem to get out of. Europe has horrible problems as well with strikes spreading. Problems and strikes include France, Belguim, Spain, Portugal, Lituania, Greece, and it looks like Ireland is on the brink also.

    The problems in the US and Europe unfortunately appear to me as long term to correct. That is provided our politicans (and theirs) have the backbone to do something about it. It will take more than our politicians taking action on baseball players using steroids.

    I'm not saying it will, but if our credit rating changes we will be seeing really hard times. I think the days of our government spending and printing are coming to a climax.

    I'm not a gloom and doom person, I hope I get bashed by everyone here that I am wrong and don't know what I'm talking about.
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  3. Cloudsweeper99

    Cloudsweeper99 Treasure Hunter

    Your post could have been written almost word for word in the 1970s. As the ancient wise men would say, "This too will pass."
  4. Merc Crazy

    Merc Crazy Bumbling numismatic fool

    Doom and gloom sells, happiness and prosperity doesn't. So of course the media rarely, if ever, shows the positive side of things.
  5. Mr. Coin Lover

    Mr. Coin Lover Supporter**

    Cloud, I hope you're right. I will admit in the '70s I was very busy partying not paying much attention to this stuff. It was my bad, but I did have a good time. The thing that concerns me the most is our debt we have these days. I don't know this and don't want to turn this into a political thing here, but were our citizens as unhappy with Washington as they are now?

    I also think precious metals still will climb a good bit more. But, how could think otherwise with what I in the start of this thread. I also think with gold at its current levels we will see more people going to silver hoping to get more bang for their buck.

    As I earlier stated I don't profess to have any real knowledge about all this, it is just the way I see it.
  6. Mr. Coin Lover

    Mr. Coin Lover Supporter**

    You're right, but what about our economy is showing happiness and prosperity? Is it because our unemployment is only this instead of that? Is it because we are only X trillion in debt instead of XX trillion in debt? Is it because some people are purchasing homes at good prices because the families there before them were foreclosed on?

    I guess what I wrote does sound pretty gloomy and doomy, but it is just the way things look to me i don't see PM prices retreating for quite awhile.
  7. Merc Crazy

    Merc Crazy Bumbling numismatic fool

    I agree the national debt is a huge, huge problem and this country will be bankrupt within 2 decades if it isn't brought under control... but that goes into politics and whatnot, so I won't go there.

    As far as positives, I know manufacturing is beginning to make a bit of a recovery here, my cousin who was laid off just got called back to his job... my friends who graduated a year or so ago without mentors or great GPA's are starting to find work, which means companies are beginning to hire again. Trust me when I say the most intelligent people of my generation won't let this country be run into the ground without a fight.

    At least I hope we don't.
  8. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Like Cloud said, what you posted could have been dated 1980 except the headlines then would have been worst. You ask what could be good? People forget that 10% unemployment means that 90% of workers have jobs, 20% poverty in the US means 80% are above poverty, mostly well above, and most of the world would love to be "poor" in America. Our poor are the richest poor in the world. We don't have nuclear holocaust hanging over our head like we did then, no masses of tanks on allies borders.

    There is much to be thankful for, even now. To live today would have been a dream age to anyone in the world 50 or a 100 years ago. Enjoy the prosperity you have, and do not try to fixate what is not perfect. The glass is half full, man! :)
  9. Mr. Coin Lover

    Mr. Coin Lover Supporter**

    I am very thankful to be an American, I know all that stuff and feel it. I spent time in the third world, got a fair knowledge of life there. I'm certainly not fixated on anything. The glass half full I don't think is good enough. We are used to our glass in America being more than just fifty percent.

    What all this boils down to is that I don't see things getting better for at least a couple of years. In that time I see PM prices definitely going higher than they are now. I will also say I don't see PMs taking a big dive down when things are better. People are smarter than often given credit for, and these times will be remembered for awhile.

    I'll give you an example. My parents grew up in the depression era. They remembered those times their entire lives. Work and save, work and save. If you can't afford to pay for it then you can't afford to buy it (other than a home).
  10. tekhen

    tekhen Member

    a slow steady hand


    Europe today... The United States of America in the not so long future?
    I don't believe we will 'protest' like the Europeans but the bankers/politicans will bring along QE 3/4/5/6 very soon.

    * Debt Free
    * Cash poor / Tangible assets rich
    * live at/below your means and save

    the best to us all
  11. Mr. Coin Lover

    Mr. Coin Lover Supporter**

    Nice article, thanks for posting it. Europeans have a history I think of taking to the streets much more than us on general national issues.
  12. Merc Crazy

    Merc Crazy Bumbling numismatic fool

    My father and I are both going to the Jon Stewart rally on the National Mall. Maybe it'll be a turning point once Stewart tells everybody to go crazy and 1 million plus people destroy the entirety of Washington, DC.

    Well, it would be kinda funny and very revolutionary...
  13. Info Sponge

    Info Sponge Junior Member

    Agreed that if PM prices are being driven by economic news, they'll probably stay high for a year or two. The question is what's driving PM prices. Inflation fears are not showing up in other markets such as bond prices or the prices of inflation-adjusted securities. If they're going up just because people are buying in because they're going up, that sort of thing always ends in tears.
  14. tekhen

    tekhen Member

    The problem... neither Europeans nor Americans can steadfast with the debt instruments used today. If one continues down the path we are there will be yet another transfer of wealth.

    Since the inception of the FED the FRN has eroded 98%. 401ks have dropped in half while the gov't keeps the penalties for cashing out. Pensions promised to retirees are also cut in half if not all.

    Bullion investing will continue to be a safe haven until Fiats around the world are devalued or eliminated all together.

    With this bad news... the ones in the know will have good news to share!

    While I have a bank acct that earns 1% and it's interest is taxed, my PM 'investments' have earned more than 20% this year alone!

    Do the math! One can prepare themselves if one chooses.
  15. Mr. Coin Lover

    Mr. Coin Lover Supporter**

    The rally thing appears to be getting popular these days. I think though is more for those having them to get exposure and increase their popularity rather than really do something good for our country.

    I wonder what people think about my lamen outlook on precious metals over the next couple of years. I am nothing more than "John Q. Citizen" with no real knowledge on precious metals. Some of the charts I see from time to time posted at places around the web I don't understand, some explanations from people who are are suppossed to know what they are talking about I don't understand.

    Personally I don't want to see 35 dollar silver or 1500 dollar gold. I think if they got that high things would be so bad the increase in the amount of precious metals I have
    wouldn't be much of a help at all.
  16. Mr. Coin Lover

    Mr. Coin Lover Supporter**

    I have no doubt some are buying in because they're going up. But, I believe the majority is because so few have so little faith in going anywhere else. I wonder how many people who have a decent knowledge of the world situation today and various investment/saving vehicles would allocate say ten thousand dollars and not be allowed to touch it or it earnings for the next ten years. Where do you think this magical gift of ten thousand dollars would do the most good for you and your family?
  17. tekhen

    tekhen Member

    In 1.7 years, the U.S. of A's. national debt has risen by $2,845,884,034,845.

    IMO, as a comparison Ag @ $35 & Au @ $1500 is very very inexpensive!
  18. Mr. Coin Lover

    Mr. Coin Lover Supporter**

    You know those kind of numbers just blow my mind. Those two numbers I pulled out of my hat. But what I was trying to say is if my PMs increased ten times or better the economy (and not just ours) must be absolutely horrible shape. The amount of price increase in the PMs I could see being used up quickly just to survive.
  19. tekhen

    tekhen Member

    I understood... PMs are suppressed based in comparison to the money supply. At some point in time, 'the jig is gonna be up!' We still have another 2 to 3 years before real estate truly turns around. There was a GM plant in Indiana where the union employees voted not to take a pay cut... the plant will be closing.

    An ounce is an ounce but an ounce compared to fiat is another story.

    When the world’s central banks, world bank, IMF and BIS start unloading their Au that is when it will be too late to exchange PMs for other assets. As for now I do see Ag & Au reaching the prices you quoted and more. The scenario you speak of is already upon us. Get your money out of fiat... The PM bull will continue for at least another 10 years
  20. Mr. Coin Lover

    Mr. Coin Lover Supporter**

    I stated earlier that I think the majority of people are buying PMs as a safe haven or some combination between that and not having faith in other instruments. If what I am saying is correct, when was the last time this occurred on a scale such as this?
  21. 10gary22

    10gary22 Junior Member

    The PM market is still greatly underfunded so it is subject to manipulation. Stradles are common and a large entity only need to buy or sell to drive the price into a profit range. You are right though, that in an extremely downward pressured economy as this, money shifts from the more normal investments of Real Estate and Stocks to PMs. Called a "panic mode" PMs should rise some still. At some point profit taking will put a downward pressure on prices and all the computer generated programs will issue "sell" orders that push it down more.

    If you can correctly time the peaks and lows, you can become independent in a short time.

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