It appears that Gold and Silver will continue falling (at least In my opinion). I know that gold and silver prices can affect the value of lower end coins, but will it affect the more valuable collector coins (i.e. Morgan CC dollars in MS65, 1921 HR Peace Dollarsin MS65, etc. )? It seems to me that the "high end" coins would remain stable in value as their price is from a "rarity" perspective, not a commodity price. Am I right?
I would say you are. But the drop in precious metals often cause a similar drop in the coin market as well.
I think that makes sense. There are so many factors at play. The strengthening dollar (at a one-year high vs. the euro and climbing http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7609689.stm ), the dropping price of oil, rallying stock market... I would think most of the trends are positive for the economy in general and perhaps the coin market as well. Who knows ?
it will continue to fall into the election then go slowly up to $30 oz by summer and $50 by x-mas day next year.:secret: Numismatics will see a surge next year with the influx of millions of new collectors looking for 2009 linclons.
So if the prices are falling, then we should buy coins now and next year. I suppose the prices will always rise again.
Not across the board. As others have said, high end coins will maintain their value and may even increase during down times. I would think that low quality keys would probably do ok as people are always looking to fill holes. Mid-range coins in not-so-popular sets would probably get hit the hardest. There is a cooling right now - I'm not sure it's cold yet. Also, the price of "junk" silver coins won't really drop until silver stays at low levels for awhile and people start selling because they need the money for whatever reason. Rising again? Well, talk to baseball card collectors or stamp collectors or vinyl record colletors for more information on that P.S. There used to be someone on this board called "chicken little". Gotta love that moniker!
It's tough to predict the future. I would venture to guess that high-end coin prices are affected more by the level of disposable income and prosperity in the general economy, and low-end coins by the bullion price. Neither one is immune from conditions, just impacted by different ones in different ways. I think expecting gold and silver prices to go much lower and stay there is a bad bet, but only in a probabilistic way.
Just a general remark- I spoke for a while with a fairly high-end seller at a show yesterday, he said business has been great the past year, with values for quality coins holding up, and collectors might buy 1 or 2 coins instead of 3 or 4 at a time, fwiw.