Has the coin market cooled off?

Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by Hiddendragon, Nov 22, 2022.

  1. Hiddendragon

    Hiddendragon World coin collector

    For years I've been buying world coins from my LCS and selling my doubles on eBay. Last year it seemed like people were buying everything and anything, and making money was easy. This year, especially recently, I feel like nothing is selling. Let me stress that I've been doing this for years and I know what sells and at what price. I have almost 500 coins listed now and some days sell one or two a day. Last year I'd have been selling 10-20. The market was so hot before and I have to wonder if it's cooled off. Anyone else notice this?
    serafino and daniel a DiBiasio like this.
  2. Avatar

    Guest User Guest

    to hide this ad.
  3. ddddd

    ddddd Member

    I heard one person mention that Asian coins have cooled off since the beginning of the year.

    Personally, I have not seen much of a cooling off in what I focus on-toned Morgans. And in general, nicely toned coins have not cooled off.

    I do wonder if the more "common" coins have cooled off as buyers are starting to run out of discretionary funds to spend (inflation finally getting to them and no more free money). For those that were spending on the mid tier to higher tier, they still have the funds but the collector who needs money for the basics would find it necessary to cut out coins, even the one to two digit examples (as every dollar counts).
  4. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    I also see constant complaints about eBay monkeying with its search and listing results. Has the number of views for your auctions changed much since last year?
  5. ddddd

    ddddd Member

    eBay has changed the way they track views (they had a post on it earlier this year). They said the main change was taking out "bot" views.
    While they don't say it, the change could have also impacted regular views and/or further steered views towards the paid promoted listings.

    Here is the page:

    "The current page view numbers on your listings count various types of traffic, including a significant amount of non-human traffic—one example is programs called “bots” that scan websites and now account for approximately 40% of internet traffic.......

    Although this non-human traffic is currently counted as a “page view,” it doesn’t represent real shoppers or lead to sales, and recent analysis has shown how much it inflates your page view numbers.

    As part of eBay’s continual efforts to bring you better data to run your business, we’re updating to a new way of counting page views that will better filter out non-human traffic and more accurately show views by potential buyers."
  6. Hiddendragon

    Hiddendragon World coin collector

    I never look at the number of views so I can't say but I have noticed that sales tend to come in bunches. One day I'll have one and the next day I have 10. It makes me wonder if eBay is doing something weird with how it displays my listings. Maybe one day they're prominent and the next they're buried? And I do use promoted listings on almost all my listings. I'd estimate maybe 80% of my sales come from them.

    It's a good point that people might be cutting back on the lower-value purchases, if you figure that maybe these are the buyers with less disposable income. Most of what I sell is the low-value stuff.
    tommyc03 and -jeffB like this.
  7. Volante

    Volante Well-Known Member

    I have noticed that eBay now defaults my search results to new listings, rather than Best Match (as they used to). Not sure if it's the same case for everybody though - it could be that I'm part of an A/B test. But shifting away from Best Match would probably negatively impact established sellers and top-rated sellers.

    To answer the original question, I have also noticed a slowdown in the past month or two across all platforms including eBay. I would guess it's part of a broader reduction in people's discretionary/hobby spending, as we slide towards a potential recession.
  8. ToughCOINS

    ToughCOINS Dealer Member Moderator

    I don't sell on eBay any longer, so I can't testify to a drop in sales.

    From the buying side I can say that I don't visit it with nearly the frequency or the enthusiasm that I used to. It's really declined from is former status as a fertile hunting ground for value. Your decline in sales and even visits to your eBay listings does not surprise me for that reason.

    As for the market being in decline, I've done no less business selling on other venues since dropping eBay.
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2022
  9. manny9655

    manny9655 Well-Known Member

    Well, the shows I attend every month have certainly had an increase in people attending. To your point, though, perhaps internet sales have dropped off, and I think it's due to the ridiculous premiums and shipping most dealers are charging. I'd rather buy at a show because I don't have to pay shipping & handling charges, and I can see the coin in hand before buying. Just my 2 cents worth.
  10. slackaction1

    slackaction1 Supporter! Supporter

    I have sold on Ebay in the past but not much at all anymore, however I use Ebay for a reference on coins I want to purchase. I click on advanced and get the current sales on that particular coin. Just to get an idea what the market is on the purchase I take that price of coin minus the shipping and look a few other places also to compare prices. In my short experience the Bay prices are usually high or higher than expected.
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2022
  11. charley

    charley Well-Known Member

  12. slackaction1

    slackaction1 Supporter! Supporter

    Yes. I agree with the No
  13. Randy Abercrombie

    Randy Abercrombie Supporter! Supporter

    Well.... I'll just say this... I rather hope the coin market does cool off a tad. Our little hobby has become bloated and I have long feared that our appetite for old coins has inflated the market such that it has become difficult for younger folks to become hobbyists. And YN's are our future life blood. I worry about what our hobby may look like once all of us baby-boomers have cleared the deck.
  14. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    You should make note guys that he's talking about world coins, but it sounds like some if not many of the responses are talking about US coins.

    I'm mentioning it because the market for world coins, and the market for US coins, are two distinct and entirely different things. For example, the market or prices for world coins has been climbing steadily for 19 years. Prices have reached levels that have never been seen before, and in many cases are downright ridiculous.

    While the market for US coins was going steadily down for 12 years, and only for the past 2 years has it been climbing back up. Almost to the point now where it is even with what it was at its peak in 2008.

    My point is, you can't compare the world market to the US market.
  15. charley

    charley Well-Known Member

    I don't share the fear or concern of an inflated market for old coins, and definitely share the YN future in the hobby.

    What has occurred...and continues to occur....is an increased public awareness of enjoyment AND value of quality, for foreign and domestic pieces. YNs are better educated in the hobby, do not rush to NFT/Bitcoin etc. markets for as a substitute for the hobby, and (cover the children's ears!!!) the philatelic community is experiencing a growth an awareness, particularly in non-U.S. countries, and in the U.S. there is a growth in the collecting and value of quality philatelic offerings.

    Old coin Inflation; it is a benefit to the collector, if the sales results are reviewed, and the result is the same whether or not the piece is a VF/XF/MS, and mintage quantity is not really changing the picture, regardless if the particular year/denomination/mintage quantity is 1,000, 10,000 or 200,000. There s increased demand and competition, especially for quality.

    The foreign numismatic market is robust, and has been for a decade (same for philately), as countries increase their per capita economic position and YNs in those markets are savvy and cognizant of the cyber world benefits of coin collecting.

    I have zero worries about the future. I enjoy interaction with YNs and am usually astonished at their level of knowledge, compared to where I was at their age in the hobby.

    Yes, a person can throw stones at the TPGs and 4PGs, and quibble about this grade or that grade, or this submittal cost or that submittal cost, but factually, without their existence, the entire coin hobby would still be living in the dark days of coin doctors and baloney quality grading.

    It is a GREAT time to be a coin or stamp hobbyist, and the entire world is a .com away. I am glad that I was an Army Brat, and experienced living in 17 different countries when I was a young enthusiastic stamp and coin collector, and was able to obtain the offering available in those countries, and had the added privilege to do so as an adult in the Armed Forces.

    To this day, my fondest collecting memory was spending an afternoon in the Study of a stamp and coin collector in Naples, Italy on Via Monzoni. I still have the additions he contributed to my collection, ca.59/60.

    Collecting is the gift worth giving.
    Rushmore, serafino and MIGuy like this.
  16. charley

    charley Well-Known Member

    I disagree. We certainly can, and it is becoming a fused market in this age of communication and is significantly benefiting collectors the world over, and is benefitting all coin and stamp hobbyists. It will continue to expand and we have not yet experienced the peak, at all.

    What you label "..steadily down.." I describe as a retrenchment period of identifying quality and reducing the impact of coin doctors and less than adequate quality assessments of coins.

    The 12 years you mention (although that is a rather high figure) are the best years that occurred for awareness and knowledge in the hobby, and continue until this day and the upswing is here to stay, and will improve the interest in the hobby on a global scale.

    I am not a fan of weird comparisons, but reading your post made me think of the dismissal of Kia and Hyundai automobiles, when introduced to the U.S. market. And now.....
  17. charley

    charley Well-Known Member

    That is not fact. It may be an experience of one collector, and I can understand a singular personal experience that may be based on price/availability/offering of interest, but as to the Asian collecting community? Not at all, and the Asian community in the U.S. is very active in the coin and stamp hobby.
  18. Hiddendragon

    Hiddendragon World coin collector

    Good points about the prices of coins on eBay. Even as a seller I often look at what other people are charging to get an idea of what I should list my coins at, and I'm often flabbergasted at the prices I see a lot of other sellers listing things for. Sure, I want to make money like anyone else but I think if I charge to much then my inventory is going to just sit around gathering dust for years. The point of selling is to move merchandise. I also know what most of these coins cost at a decent coin shop and I feel like you can only push people past that point for so far before the convenience of having what you want sent to your door isn't enough to outweigh the bad deal you're getting. I think a lot of sellers have decided it's not worth it for them if it doesn't realize a certain minimum return, and that return just isn't realistic. Unfortunately shipping charges keep increasing. This year and last year USPS added a 30% holiday premium to package rates starting in October and running through January. Even with eBay's discounts for buying your shipping label on the platform, it can be nearly $4 for postage on even a 2-3 ounce bubble mailer, and that's not even figuring in the cost of the mailer, and also that eBay subtracts their fee percentage from whatever you charge for shipping. Especially if you sell low-value stuff you need to pass these costs along to the buyer or you're not making anything.

    That being said, most of these factors have been in place for awhile and it's only recently that I've noticed the sales falling off. I suspect it has to do with the economy and maybe politics to a certain extent.

    As for the young collectors, I agree the coin prices are a deterrent. Even when I first got really into coins, when I was about 29, the high price on U.S. coins is what drove me to turn to foreign and see all the value there. Many dealers do see their foreign coins as "something for the kids to play with," and I hope they do because there's a lot of neat things there. My 5-year-old got interested in coins this year, and now he has an album with coins from all over the world and he's at school shouting out things like "Zimbabwe" when the teacher asks for a word that starts with Z. It's a great way to learn about the world, about math, history and so much more.
    MIGuy, -jeffB, masterswimmer and 3 others like this.
  19. ddddd

    ddddd Member

    I did not report it as a fact but rather an observation from one person. I don’t even fully agree because he only showed two examples, one of which only had a single lower priced sale.
  20. KSorbo

    KSorbo Well-Known Member

    Another factor to consider with world coins is, what is the effect of the strong US dollar on pricing? For example, are British coins worth less in dollars now that the pound is at record lows? I suppose it would depend on how large a share of the transactions are done by British collectors in British pounds.
    Hiddendragon likes this.
  21. Vertigo

    Vertigo Did someone say bust?

    I stopped selling with the notice that the 1099k would come next. I don't need to sell but I was buying and flipping. I was doing pretty good. And then they came up with that. So I sold all my low value raw stuff so I wouldn't ever have to pay taxes on any of that before the end of the year. Kept the nicer stuff and put the money into nicer things. If I go back selling I'm going to go to the shows in my state. I don't need any kind of license to sell at a NH show. So if I ever get to that point I'll just rent me a table. I have also thought about starting to set up at one of the flea markets.
Draft saved Draft deleted

Share This Page