Does the 1908 No Motto St. Gaudens's Price Mostly Depend on Gold?

I was wondering today.. Say gold is to tank in the coming months. Will that bring down the St Gaudens in Price majorly? Or .. is the coin worth it's price because it's a St. Gaudens?

 

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Prices of $20 Saints are often affected to some extent by the price of gold bullion. However, different grades can be affected to varying degrees. For example, lower grade pieces trade at lower premiums over the price of spot gold. So they are typically affected more than higher grade ones, which have more numismatic value.

 

So if gold hits 600, you think the St Gaudens will come down around that 300 dollar price too?

 

Depends on the grade. Imo the key date, high grade coins would hold in price. As for the 08 No motto, it is a common date $20, so most of it's price is based on the price of gold, though it does hold a small premium over the base gold price.

So if gold was to drop, Imo so would the price of the 08 $20, but it would still hold a premium over the base gold price.

I went back just to check, as an example:

In Feb 2001 gold was around $300 an ounce Gold Chart - Last 10 years
In Feb 2001 a 1908 No Motto sold for $460 1908 $20 NO MOTTO

Now I know it's just 1 example but, from looking at past auctions on Heritage, the price of the common $20 seem to mirror the price of gold, plus a small premium.

 

Imo I would say if gold dropped to $600, I would expect a low MS (60,61,62,63) 1908 No motto to sell for around $750-$800. But then again you never know, unfortunately I don't have a crystal ball :goofer:.

 

In general the lower graded ones sell closer to spot and the higher graded ones have much more volatility or larger price swings depending on the demand. If gold tanks to $600 like in your example you may only be out $300 on the low end ones but much more on the higher graded ones.

The ones that seem immune are the highest graded low pop for elite collections.

 

As a rule the < MS-64 common date gold coins tend to follow the price of gold and to keep roughly the same percentage over spot. BUT, when gold make a run upwards the price of the classic common gold will go up even faster, in other words they will lead on the way up, but when gold slides their prices will not come down as fast. The coins will lag behind on the way down. Once the price of gold "stabalizes" either after going up or down the price of the coins will eventually settle down as well around that same percentage over spot level.

 

This reminds me of my '08 saint. It's a common date, but I bought it as PCGS MS63. I sent it into NGC and it graded '64, I had an NGC grader in hand agree with that grade too. I Bought it for around $780, now I can't believe its worth around $1700, over double what I paid intially. I still can't sell it myself though...its a nice coin