2006 W UNC Platinum Rarity

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by CentDime, Dec 29, 2006.

  1. CentDime

    CentDime Coin Hoarder

    It is interesting to read what others say about these coins so I have a few things I want to add about the potential rarity of these coins.

    First off it is interesting that these coins are an actual release in 2006 with a potential mintage of only 2500 coins for the $100 Platinum W UNC. Compared to all other coins released these are certainly the lowest mintage in 85 years or so and that says a lot. These are still half as rare as the 2000-P Goodacre Presentation Sacagawea Dollars, and those trade at about $1400 for MS68.

    Now we know the Sacagawea Dollars aren't stamped in gold or Platinum, but nevertheless they carry a very high value for those 5000 coins. The Platinum coins were stamped in a precious metal though so they were expensive to buy, that was the factor that so few were minted and sold. Also there are less collectors of Platinum coins, that too was a factor.

    For whatever reason though, the end result is only about 2500 coins. Imagine if it was 2500 nickles or dimes, what would they sell for? Since it is Platinum though, they are said to not be real coins.

    I also think that rarity can also be relative. 2500 coins minted today is probably like 500 coins or less a hundred years ago. Relative to the population it brings these are very rare in over a hundred years.

    You might also look at the coins in a relative valuation when you add in inflation.

    $1400 today [the price of the $100 W Platinum] would be the same as $31,017.85 in 1900. I got this figure through an inflation calulator.

    So on a relative basis the price of this coin is far higher than any that were released way back when. Another reason why mintage was so low.

    Anyway on a historical basis I think these coins will be treasures for many years to come, the wild card is how the price of platinum behaves over the next few years. If it doubled for some reasion these may not be the eventual lowest mintage, but if it falls then I think these will maintain a healthy premium as more collectors enter these coins.
     
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  3. Leadfoot

    Leadfoot there is no spoon

    If you like them, then more power to you, but to compare these coins valuation and rarity to more classic coins is disingenuous. These are not circulating coinage nor do they share the design of circulating coinage, and thus the demand will always be lower. In a bit more detail, there are a few problems I have with the logic you used in your post...

    First, you compare the 2006 Platinum issues to Goodacre Sacs. It is not fair to compare bullion coins to circulating coins as the collecting base (and thus the demand, and thus the price) is different. Compare the 2006 to the valuation of other rare bullion coins for a more fair comparison in valuation. I think you will find it is not quite the same.

    Second, unlike the proof coins of a hundred years ago, these coins will never be circulated and virtually none will become impared over time. Thus in the future, these coins are still likely to be all around and still all in very high grades. Both of these factors decrease their future potential, and comparing them to the proofs of a hundred years ago is unfair.

    Lastly, what if in 2007 the mitages go even lower than 2006 levels? Then the key date no longer becomes the key date and the price will go down. Always a concern when it comes to collecting series still being produced. This concern is not valid for more classic coinage (but is very much true for Sacs).

    Personally, I vew these coins as the US Mint trying to be the Franklin Mint and in a hundred years time these coins will be viewed as bullion. Much of the hysteria is fueled by speculation and not any real numismatic interest, and unless the price of platinum takes off the gains will be shortlived.

    Just my opinion, and please don't take it as anything more than just that because in the end it is what YOU like to collect that matters...Mike
     
  4. Aberlight

    Aberlight New Member

    I like your take on the Platinum Eagles. However I believe your inflation calculator has a few numbers transposed. $31,017.85 would be the value 100 years from now. $1400 today would be the equilvent of 63.19 in 1900.
    http://www.westegg.com/inflation/
     
  5. CentDime

    CentDime Coin Hoarder

    Thanks for the replies, yes I agree my inflation math was turned around. I think to compare this coin would be to say a coin that sold for $61 in 1900 as you say. So let's go back and look at the coins that sold for that amount. The ones i can think of are the $50 gold coins.

    Since this coin isn't a circulating coin [none were used anyways with a value of $60 back then right?], let's look at non-circulating commemoratives. The 1915 Pan Pac was a commemorative $50 gold coin, and I am not sure of it's issue price but I assume it was higher than $50. Anyway I think this is a possible valid comparison for the very long-term potential of these 2006-W plats because the Pan Pac is a gold commemorative. Anyway all of the other $50 coins seem to be private gold or territorial from around 1850 or so and they all sell for $35,000 or so in UNC.

    But those are the only ones I can think of to compare these based on the price they cost to purchase from the mint and also their trading value. The Pan Pac may not be a perfect match but it is something in the ball park. Since those are gold though and there are more gold collectors that will skew it towards that coin. But still I can't beilieve the mint produced a coin of only 2500 in 2006. Amazing.!/
     
  6. Aidan Work

    Aidan Work New Member

    Do you have any pictures of these pieces?

    Aidan.
     
  7. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator


    If you think that is amazing then you should look at some of the mintage numbers for coins of other nations. There are many of them with mintages under 100 and more than a few with mintages under 50.
     
  8. RickieB

    RickieB Expert Plunger Sniper

    APE's

    Well now that poses an interesting question.How rare are they? First lets look at the coins features:

    PROS
    1. It is uncirculated.
    2. It has the reverse design of the current 2006 proof APE.
    3. It has the "W" mint mark
    4. The planchets are burnished with tiny steel pellets (according to the mint)
    5. It is the Inaugural Issue for the "W" mint mark coins.

    CONS

    1. Platinum is a non circulating coin (made for investors)
    2. It is expensive
    3. Collector interest is for the few not the many.
    4. It is a modern issue as are all American Eagles

    Now..will any of these things make you rush right out and get one? If you did not get it from the mint during the small issuing window..the secondary market prices will be sky rocket high. I am partial to the American Eagle Program and have collected it for many of the 21 years....the platinum is truly a special metal/coin and only select few have complete sets. The only denomination of platinum that I have completed is the 1/10th oz proof and uncirc for all years. I have select coins of other denominations with small mintages in both finishes. My primary focus is on the AGE in which I only need ~ 10 Proof 1oz coins and 6 Unc 1oz coins to complete the entire series all finishes and denominations.The recent additions of the "W" AGE uncirculated coins makes it complete for the 10th, qtr, and half oz coins...now comes 2007!! I have side by side safe deposit boxes at my bank....I can only imagine what they think when I go in to swap out Silica boxes..LOL

    RickieB
     
  9. CentDime

    CentDime Coin Hoarder

    one ounce Platinum UNC

    1997 56,000
    1998 133,002
    1999 56,707
    2000 10,003
    2001 14,070
    2002 11,502
    2003 8,007
    2004 7,009
    2005 6,310
    2006 7,100
    2006W 2,500

    Looks pretty small compared to the earlier ones.

    Here is a rarity of earlier coins posted on another forum:

    1. 483 1915 Pan Pac $50 Gold-Round - Price $60,000

    2. 586 1907-1915 $20 Saint Gauden’s - Price Proofs $21,500

    3. 645 1915 Pan Pac $50 Gold -Octagonal - Price $52,500

    4. 768 1908-1915 Indian Head $10 - Proofs - Price $15,500

    5. 1,080 1908-1915 Indian Head $5 - Proofs - Price $11,000

    6. 1,827 1908-1915 Indian Head $2.5- Proofs - Price $7,000


    New 7. 2,500 2006 W-Unc Platinum Eagle $100 – Price:?????
    New 8. 2,650 2006 W-Unc Platinum Eagle $50 – Price:?????
    New 9. 2,750 2006 W-Unc Platinum Eagle $25 – Price:?????
    New 10. 3,700 2006 W-Unc Platinum Eagle $10 – Price:?????
     
  10. cwtokenman

    cwtokenman Coin Hoarder

    Rarity is determined by the ratio of supply vs. demand. Many of my token books have rarity ratings, and at least one of them lists as few as 6 or more known to be rated as "common". Typically, for the value of any collectible to increase significantly, there needs to be a corresponding increase in demand (or intrinsic value). Low demand equates to low value. As an example, some Civil War merchants were prolific with the number of varieties they issued, so demand for any one specific variety may be very low as well. There are some R9 rarity (2-4 known) cwts that list in Unc for only $50. Considering that these tokens circulated to a greater extent than regular coinage tor a time, imagine what a 140+ year old uncirculated U.S. coin with a pop. in the 2-4 range would be worth. That's the kind of difference demand can make.
     
  11. CentDime

    CentDime Coin Hoarder

    I did a little bit more reading on this, and from what I can gather the 1915 Pan Pac issue price was actually $100 which would translate into about $1850 today so that one was even more expensive than the current 1 ounce Plat coin at issue price.

    I also read on how the 2000 Plats were initially considered rare after release due to the 10,000 mintage and many paid a premium for them, but as we can see by the prices they have fallen back to the others. Perhaps this is one reason why many are soured on these coins.

    As to rarity, it is interesting as i read there are four types of rarity.One is absolute rarity, they only made a few of a coin. One is relative rarity, the coin is rare relative to the others in the series. There is condition rarity, only so many in a certain condition remain, and also type rarity where only a certain number of a design exist.

    I think the run in the 2000 coins was relative rarity, as they saw the big drop in mintage and thought it was the bottom.

    1997 56,000
    1998 133,002
    1999 56,707
    2000 10,003
    2001 14,070
    2002 11,502
    2003 8,007
    2004 7,009
    2005 6,310
    2006 7,100
    2006W 2,500

    But as the numbers show it wasn't the bottom, only a new phase in lower mintages. What seems interesting is even with the higher platinum price the mintages over the last couple of years in both the proof and UNC has stabilized for now. The 2006W was possibly an anamoly because of the late issue of the coins and the competition from other coins earlier in the year.

    So I think what the 2006W coins do is bring in a new floor to these coins.

    What would be interesting is what would happen to the coins if platinum prices plunged. Obviously many more coins would be produced and it would go back to the mintages of 1998 or higher. Some coins in the series would be very affordable again at far lower prices, and the key dates would become rare relative to the collector base.

    If platinum prices keep at the current level or go higher, the mintages seem to be holding at around 5500 to 7000 so they stay at that or drop a bit to 4500 / 5000. But I doubt they get down to 2500 again for many years unless the mint goofs up or platinum hits $3000.
     
  12. alhas

    alhas Senior Member

    Hello all,

    Excellent discussion. I am learning a lot!

    Al
     
  13. Pepperoni

    Pepperoni Senior Member

    Platinum

    As previously stated a good two sided discussion.
    Now that the anniversary sets for the 20th year are compleated, it seems logical that a five year mark at 25yrs would be a logical move to enhance revenue. I think this instument can play almost any tune you can hum.
     
  14. RickieB

    RickieB Expert Plunger Sniper


    Well... we do have the 10th Anniversary (official) Platinum Eagle Set coming sometime this year. I have read articles that there will be 3 coins of the 1/2 oz or $50 dollar denomination. The finishes will be like the 20th Anniversary Sets witha reverse proof coin.

    So I am going to estimate that 1.5 oz of Pt @1250.00 per oz (current) plus the premium the Mint will apply we should see the set @ ~ $2600. to $2800.00 each.

    Anyone else have any thoughts?? I am in on that set for sure!!! :thumb:

    RickieB :smile
     
  15. CentDime

    CentDime Coin Hoarder

    I think the mintage is going to be about 10,000 sets so I probably won't be buying one, I just can't see these coins selling for much over spot like the others with 10,000 mintage except for the reverse proof.

    While the gold set did great for the gold reverse proof, it killed the appreciation value for the other two coins as they were released in other sets. Since platinum proofs already sell at less than 10,000 mintage I can't see why they think people will be paying for these sets as though the demand is there like with gold.

    If we go by the price you say of $2800, then two of the coins are worth spot or about $1320 for the two. That means the reverse proof will be costing us $1290. But there are a few of the modern gold commemorative coins with mintages of 10,000 or so that cost only $600 to $1000 right now so that's why I don't see the upside on these sets [I bought one last week for $350 even].

    I think the platinum with the low mintages will be the ones that break out before these sets ever do. But this is just my opinion, if you want a set by all means buy one. I don't see the reverse proofs selling for less than $1290 so you certainly won't lose any with these if you do buy one. I may,I say may buy one yet still, just not sure is all.
     
  16. RickieB

    RickieB Expert Plunger Sniper

    Hey Centdime... Howdy.

    My prices are just estimates as I have no idea what the sets will cost. For me I started a Pt. $10 and $25 dollar coin collection quite a while back....here is a pic of my current collection just Au and Pt.

    I know the set's may not be for everyone...I just plan on having it because I collect this series (all American Eagle Coins) and these will be keys just like the Gold and Silver 3 piece sets. Hope you enjoy the pic of my collection.

    Regards,

    RickieB
     
  17. Gizmo

    Gizmo New Member

    Hi Everyone,

    I'm somewhat new to collecting and I am trying to understand how pricing is established between ungraded and graded coins. As an example, the 2004 w $50 Platinum proof ungraded with coa is roughly $2,500 on the grey sheet. If this coin was graded PCGS PR70 it could be worth $10,000. If its PR69 it could be $3,600.

    My question is, if I were a ebay powerseller with depth in my inventory why would I sell a coin for $2,500 knowing that if I were to have it graded the minimum increase in value would be $1,100.00 ($3,600.00 - $2,500.00). Not to mention if the coin turned out to be a PR70.

    Thanks
     
  18. CentDime

    CentDime Coin Hoarder

    I don't think it is a given that the coin would grade a 69 or even a 70. There are also only 16 coins graded PCGS PR70, that is why the price is that high. However I have seen raw coins in the past sell for more than 69's so your guess is as good as anyone's [mostly those are ones that are unopened from the mint].

    There is a chance though the coin has been sent in before and graded under a 69 so it was put back in the mint packaging and sells as raw. It could also be a mispriced coin waiting to be taken for a low price too. Not all sellers have exact prices on coins, some are very high, and some are rather low.
     
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