Do you own coins which were rare when you bought them, but no longer due to NEW HOARDS ?

Great post....I guess technically if someone gets a few people in Europe to part with long-held Liberty DEs (or Saints) that could be considered a "hoard" but to me hoard implies: (1) a pretty large number of coins, at least a few dozen and (2) all the coins in 1 location.

I guess the word "hoard" is being used more broadly. Which is OK I guess....we're not dealing in scientific terminology here.

Obviously, the Wells Fargo hoard is a classic -- 19,900 coins all at the same location. Many of the 1929-32 Saint rarities had "mini-hoards" of a few coins to a dozen or so come over in drips-and-drabs over the years/decades.

I read somewhere -- and now I can't remember where, I gotta scour and go look (should have cut-and-pasted) -- about a FAKE hoard that was announced in the U.K. for Saints that Walter Breen (?) and some others announced and it turned out to be false. Can't remember if I saw it on the Internet, from Bower's GUIDE BOOK, or from some catalogs I've been reading.

Like I said, should have noted it in my Saints blog. Damn.....

 

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Yup, that's it.

 

I didn't read every post so if I repeat some ones info forgive me. Personally, I wouldn't pay any big money for a liberty head double eagle or a saint. Between the coins being pulled up off the ocean floor and the ones hiding in European vaults there is a good chance that some coins being thought as super rare could show up in large quantiles. The same can be said about some coins though to be rare in the past that show up in the market often. The 1904-O Morgan is a great example. The difference today compared to the past is the internet. In the past if a hoard was found it could have been liquidated quietly over a long period of time. However, today if a hoard is found it wouldn't take long before everyone knows about it. Can you imagine if a bag of 1895 Morgan dollars was found in a bank vault 50 years ago. The person that found it could slowly sell them at an extreme profit. However, if a bag was found last month it would be all over the internet with in a month. They would still be highly liquid and sell for a high price but, not at the same prices you could ask if it wasn't known that a $1,000.00 bag showed up. I know of many coins that are still considered rare but really aren't. The 1909-S VDB Lincoln cent is a prime example of a coin considered rare that's really not. Many were pulled from circulation and hoarded right after they were minted. This caused the coin to become scarce early on but, I have no problem finding one today.

 

Only if you pay me $100.....

Do you mean rare/scarce Liberty and Saint DE's.....or ANY Liberty or Saint DE's ?

Because many coins trade at gold bullion prices and won't be affected by any hoards....and even scarce/rare ones, while theoretically POSSIBLE a few coins could be found (or even a bag) of 1930-S Saints or 1870-CC Liberty's....it's extremely doubtful.

The 1933 Saint, with only 1 legally allowed to be sold (a few others out there) was going to be impacted by the Switt-Langbord coins (10 of them) but anybody who pays $7.6 MM for a coin can probalby withstand any drop caused by a hoard or new coins showing up.

I think we know of all the ships that went down with Liberty DEs....there could be some surprises for a few dates and mintmarks, but nothing that probably isn't in the price.

Doug Winter and a few others HAVE said that you do have this drip-drip-drip of Liberty's (and Saints) coming from Europe with probably individual holders selling...either original holders or heirs or estates. Unless you have a super-rare coin with a very low population, again, it's unlikely to CRASH the market though it could depress it and/or prevent price gains. Depends on the number and their condition.

Good points....but back in 1962 information was via newspaper or once a night on your local news....hoards were virtually unknown. Also, reporting and information is so much better today that you wouldn't find millions of MSDs hiding in vaults. Not even gold coins in bank vaults. Maybe a few bags here or there in a small bank away from major urban areas in South or Central American countries...maybe a military or junta leader or family member who pilfered them....etc.

But we haven't seen that yet, so to expect the proverbial "other shoe to drop" when it hasn't for decades (and 20 years of the internet) is probably unlikely.

But the temptation when you get a large batch is to ditch them all at once, either then or today. Nobody wants to dribble out coins over YEARS and have to hold them. They want their $$$ today.

In 1962, the price did hold up for a while on the 1903-O and 1904-O before a few coins turned into dozens...then hundreds...and then folks realized where they were all coming from.

If someone in Denver has a few 1927-D Saints -- let alone even a PARTIAL bag of them -- the market will know very quickly. When you have a population census of < 25 coins and something shows up for sale every couple of years, you notice when 1 or 2 go off in a few weeks or months.

I'm not into Lincoln cents, but like most coins, doesn't it have condition rarity at say the MS-67 or 68 or even 69 level ?

 

Thanks, I was gonna correct it when I re-read it but the Statue of Limitations ran out.

It's always a risk but since most financials have been quantified and digitally recorded at most banks (even in 3rd World countries) the surprise element today is MUCH less than when European banks still had WW II in the rear-view mirror or South/Central American countries were totally opaque and run by kleptocracies (some still are ).

Still...who's to say some government bureacrat or ex-military person doesn't have a few bags of American coins for his retirmement plan, though most would probably prefer bills and/or Swiss/Cayman Islands bank accounts.

 

I would think just the 1857-S Liberty Double Eagle, off the top of my head.

 

I agree with your estimate for the 1904-O. That's why I'm posting the "deal" I got on one in the early '90's. I bought a raw, unc. for $5.00. Since I live in Louisiana, and have been to the old New Orleans mint, it's special, because it's the last year they minted the dollar coin in New Orleans.

 

Wasn't there a hoard of 1909 VDB matte proofs, which one collector had amassed, offered for sale in the past year or two? Not sure of whatever became of them.

 

It looks you have a 60-year round-tripper in the price of the 1903-O.....I see it for about $500 - $1,000 in MS65, a bit cheaper as you head to 63 and multiple thousands if you goto 66 and/or DMPL, etc.

The 1904-O in MS65 is about $125 so you got a good deal if yours is close in quality. Need to goto MS67 to get price separation.

 

I'm not sure that qualifies as a hoard...if the guy was accumulating the coins and it was known, then folks were aware of their existence. Many may have already even been certified and graded and in the population census.

True hoards -- Wells Fargo size or a few dozen from a French bank -- are about new, undiscovered, never accounted for coins.

 

Not really. While hoards are often hidden away by the owners, the definition is just having a lot of something or a lot of stuff. If it was previously unknown it will certainly have a bigger impact on price, but it doesn't have to be newly discovered to be a hoard

 

Yeah, but if someone went around buying 5 or 6 of the 1927-D Saints.....and it took 10-15 years to do that....and then kept them until his/her death....we really wouldn't call their release/sale by his estate a brand new hoard of 1927-D's, right ?

 

There's no requirement for a hoard to be new or contain unknown things, all it has to be is a lot of something/somethings

A hoard can actually be new and contain all things that were previously known if no one was aware that they had all ended up with the same person

 

Eh....I get what you are saying. I just focus more on the surprise element.

I just think if -- I'll switch to a more numerous year/mintmark -- if rumors arose that 25 1930-S Saints had been bought by some buyer represenatives....and nobody knew if they all worked for the same buyer or 5 different ones....would it really make a difference if 1 guy released 25 coins down the line or 5 guys released 5 coins each ?

To me, the SURPRISE FACTOR to the market and the change in the poulation census is the key with any hoard. If neither takes place, then the "hoard" isn't really a hoard.

 

That would be a discovery/find which may or may not also be a hoard. Two separate things.

Market impact has nothing to do with if something is a hoard or not. You keep bringing all these different criteria in when a hoard is simply a lot of something/somethings. Everything else is a different conversation

 

You're just making up definitions then as that isn't what the word means at all.

Thats like saying a stock isn't really a stock unless it pays a dividend. While many do, it's not a criteria for being one just like while there is often a surprise factor with hoards the surprise factor is not part of the definition of being a hoard

 

There was certainly a run here of new posters thinking they had a 1909 VDB matte proof. That definitely was not related to any hoard of actual matte proofs, though.

 

Finally found the article on these in a 2014 issue of Coin World...
https://www.coinworld.com/news/prec...ln-cent-collector-focuses-on-vdb-variety.html

 

Wonderful article. The anonymous collector gather 53 of the 400 plus that were minted. Remarkable. Nice pictures too. Thanks for digging that up. Great thread.

 

I don't know if there's ever been a definition of a "hoard" but I always took it to mean new supply into the market.

If it's KNOWN, it's not new supply.

Hence, my use of the term "surprise."

The dealers seem to use the words "excess supply" or "glut" rather than "hoard" when known coins hit the market all at once and prices are weak.

I agree this isn't an exact science but I'm just trying to use the word "hoard" in the proper context. But it's certainly not the ONLY one, I agree.