Featured An examination of the counterfeit slab epidemic. Scope and advice.

Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by TypeCoin971793, Feb 20, 2020.

  1. geekpryde

    geekpryde Husband and Father Moderator

    Awesome Post, well written, details, helpful. I love seem original content like this on CT.

    My two very small critiques.

    In the very old days, eBay kept the pictures and detail of listing up for a very long time (years), possibly forever. Well, that changed quite a few years ago, and the images actually go away fairly quickly now. So trying to use an eBay auction to check photos against is mostly useless, unless the legitimate listing took place within the last 90 days.

    I think listing other large auction sites that DO keep the listing photos essentially forever, that are also well respected, trusted companies that probably rarely if ever have a fake coin slip past them. I think it would be helpful if you add these to you great article, so readers could have another legitimate source to check their coins against decent photos, as part of a multi-pronged approach to research the past history of a coin they are buying.

    For example, Stack's Bowers. This company unfortunately does not make searching for TPG cert numbers in their archives easy, however, if its a PCGS coin and it was ever auctioned by SB, then is is very likely listed on PCGS certification verification site, and it will link you directly to the old listing with pictures, including in most cases, slab pictures. You could also manually search the coin by typing in the date, mintmark, grade, etc. and pulling up the several examples and matching against your coin. I would say if the coin is of sufficient value, this small annoyance is worth the time.

    Also, I understand your point in the TPG trying to minimize the data mining abilities of the fakers, but in my mind, NGC has it wrong and PCGS has it correct. NGC new system is annoying and frustrating, it hampers legitimate buyers more than it slows down the data miners. PCGS system is faster, easier, and provides better overall information, and great photos when available to check against. NGC photos are laughably bad, unless you pay them. Keep in mind, I am no NGC hater, I am a member who submits to them. It's just the reality, NGC certificate verification system does more harm than good, as people are less likely to use it when needing to lookup a whole slew of certs quickly, like I do when hunting auctions and placing bids. I honestly think NGC didn't even put it in place to prevent the Fakers at all, it was other sorts of companies they were trying to slow down. ;)

    These are minor points, and your overall post if excellent and extremely helpful. Many members will benefit from this info, I only hope they actually take the time to research purchases and gain skills to try and minimize the risk of buying fake coins, fake slabs, or worse, BOTH.
     
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  3. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Can you clarify this statement? I entered the cert number for each of the two coins @Jack D. Young posted, and for each one, the page came up showing the eBay prices under "Latest Auction Appearances of This Coin".
     
    Jack D. Young likes this.
  4. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    Absolutely.

    If we use his example the cert is 26045611. If you look under the value information link right under the picture (or where it would be when there are none) you click that and there's a basic page of past sales for PCGS and NGC coins.

    There's two buttons at the top where you can choose to show plus grades and choose if you want eBay shown or excluded.

    If you use the PCGS auctions prices realized page (https://www.pcgs.com/auctionprices) there is also a eBay filter where you can exclude it.

    As a side note GC and some others have chosen not to allow their recent prices to be captured by the system which changed I believe around 2016 though GC does seem to release some others from time to time. It would be in the best interest for buyers to check each if they are out of range as listing errors can erroneously get captured or missed.
     
  5. Marshall

    Marshall Junior Member

    One thing to consider is the percentage of Fakes discovered vs the percentage of fakes out there. I believe the percentage discovered is similar to the percentage of coins which survive vs coins minted (~2%).

    It is a simple guess without a meticulous survey, but there are many fakes in collections which are unknown at this time. My guess is based on my own experience of the number of fakes I see while perusing eBay for Large Cent varieties. I discover some rare unattributed authentic coins, some poor fakes and some fakes that would get by me if not for the work of people like Jack Young and the OP.

    If the OP, which I've dealt with numerous times, thinks I might be biased because of my narrow specialization in Early Large Cents, he could very well be right. I really do not normally spend much time looking outside of this narrow field of interest.

    But let me throw this out there too. Many of these fakes are not known to be fakes by the seller. They were unknowing victims from earlier and these have been in their collection or inventory while they are unaware of their being Fake/Counterfeit. I suspect counterfeit slabs are similar. But until there is better analysis, anecdotal estimates based on numbers of those skilled in identifying them will have to suffice.
     
    Paul M. likes this.
  6. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Gotcha. I think you're seeing that because you're logged in. Since I'm not, I don't get those options. If you hit the page with an Incognito/Private Browsing window, you may see the same thing I do.
     
    Jack D. Young likes this.
  7. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    Without question.

    Only thing I would add here is that early copper with all the issues many have is especially susceptible to being faked as you have many more methods to cover up things that weren't right where the "damage" would appear normal.
     
  8. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    There may be something with your browser, but I actually am not logged in and can still see all that. The cert page and auction realized page are the same every time for me whether logged in or not.
     
  9. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    Completely agree. There's enough information out there that if people want cert numbers they can easily get them. I suspect the limitation is more to do with server stress than anything given how easily more than enough information is easily availble in a matter of seconds with searches. It really isn't stopping anything making is harder for people to look something up.

    This may surprise some people but I am as well and actually submit to all 4 eBay TPGs fairly regularly, CAC as well if you want to count that.
     
  10. Marshall

    Marshall Junior Member

    Yes and no. If the counterfeit is made from reproducing a die from an authentic coin, then the damage from the original coin appears on the fakes. This is Jacks area of expertise.

    I just have to rely on "something not quite right" gut instinct. But that leaves me vulnerable to being suspicious of authentic coins with copper related missing diagnostics. so in that sense, you are correct.
     
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  11. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    But, with early copper and the corrosion etc that is prevalent in many examples there are many more options available to hide things that weren't correct or cover up that its the same as others and look "normal"

    Obviously this wouldn't apply to high grades.
     
    Paul M. likes this.
  12. Jack D. Young

    Jack D. Young Well-Known Member

    Just as a point of reference this is the list of recently (since 2008) deceptive struck counterfeits documented to date- I presented this to a Sr. Secret Service Agent in a meeting in DC:

    The_list.jpg
    No question we started with the early copper as members of EAC but continued to follow the fakes through other series. At the time the earliest we documented went back to 2011 but we have now dated a couple to 2008, and prior to that a series that predates these based on the 1833 N-5 large cent to 2007.
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2020
    Paul M. likes this.
  13. Jack D. Young

    Jack D. Young Well-Known Member

    My point is that I did not have to toggle or press anything to see the reference to the eBay sale in the on-line cert as indicated; and it effects the data whether someone chooses to ignore it or not.

    Pointing out actual facts is not badgering but use of the condescending tone is in my opinion.

    And I would never refer to trying to help educate "handholding" as you do...
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2020
  14. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    I don’t consider it handholding educating people which should absolutely be done.

    That said if someone can’t take a couple extra seconds to look up the extra information that’s their decision especially when the link is right there on the same page. There does come a point when it’s handholding when there’s links on the page already especially since they’re already on the internet to look at something and there just is a point where we have to accept that as with anything in life some people just can’t be bothered or will make bad decisions.

    eBay isn’t the blackhole for buyers it’s often made out to be and is very relevant in the market, but it’s very easy for someone to exclude that if they want to.
     
  15. Seattlite86

    Seattlite86 Outspoken Member

    I'm confused... the OP's title claims there is an "epidemic" but provides zero quantifiable data to support this hypothesis. "Fake slabs exist and here are a couple" does not to me constitute support of a claim for "epidemic".
     
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  16. Jack D. Young

    Jack D. Young Well-Known Member

    I have never purchased anything off Craigslist but these are certainly there as well. The following were documented by the ACTF.

    78870115_2447059642219733_1850434827816271872_n.jpg

    79988463_2447059702219727_8716990878645747712_n.jpg

    80260821_2447059932219704_4838413974728867840_n.jpg

    In these 2 examples both showed enough info on the on-line certs to help verify:

    79957658_2447060858886278_6775595859045253120_o.jpg

    79441511_2447060025553028_4956337606125158400_o.jpg
     
    Paul M. likes this.
  17. TypeCoin971793

    TypeCoin971793 Just a random guy on the internet

    If you saw them everyday, then you might think otherwise.

    There are well over 1000 known compromised slab certs based off past searches of AliExpress (something like 1500 results for PCGS and NGC), and hundreds more have appeared since then. We do not know how many have been compromised. Just 10 fakes of each of those slab certs would be a real problem, wouldn’t you think? Considering that the Chinese produce counterfeits on an industrial scale, one can see the threat this is. And it will only get worse.
     
  18. TypeCoin971793

    TypeCoin971793 Just a random guy on the internet

    There is a tool on the Coin Community Forum that will allow you to look up eBay images even after the listings have been purged from eBay. There might be other tools as well.

    Great points! I am going to be revising this article based on the discussion here to disseminate to the collecting community.

    I view it as a necessary evil, but I do see your point. With the relaxed timer and the single more step of selecting the grade, it isn’t that much more inconvenient then the PCGS system. I think these issues are greatly resolved by scanning slabs with the app.

    This is my major criticism with NGC. It makes sense that they don’t want to make good free photos so that people won’t pay for their photo service. It would greatly improve the hobby as a whole to raise the grading fees for everything and include good photos for every coin for no additional cost (except ASEs). It might actually prove to be a popular decision.

    I highly doubt this.

    This is what it has to take to be safe nowadays. The only inhibitor is getting the info to everyone. At least half of all collectors (from my experience) are completely unaware that fake slabs exist. That is way too many.
     
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  19. johnmilton

    johnmilton Well-Known Member

    One thing that makes me both angry and puzzled is why PCGS refuses to take pictures of every coin they grade currently. As a compromise they could take pictures of every coin that is worth $500 or more.

    They know what is at stake with the hobby and the counterfeit problem. Why don't they do all they combat it? If it's because "It's too expensive" that is penny wise and pound foolish.
     
  20. Seattlite86

    Seattlite86 Outspoken Member

    Sorry, but you'll have to do better than "If you saw them everyday, then you might think otherwise". I highly doubt even you see them "everyday". Call it hyperbole if you desire, but it's still not evidence.

    PCGS has graded over 43 million coins, NGC over 45 million. What percentage of these 80+ million certified coins does this "epidemic" comprise? Where is your support for this?
     
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  21. Jack D. Young

    Jack D. Young Well-Known Member

    Hopefully Neither PCGS nor NGC has graded any of these counterfeit slabs...
     
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