The problem for the TPG might be not so much trying to keep the population figures accurate (which would be nice), but perhaps folks would be less likely to submit the coins for regrading. In theory each is a new grading event, but if there is 'recognition software' I'm sure quite a few people would suspect that incoming coins would be run through the process prior to grading (once set up, perhaps a fairly automated process) and the old grade would be spit out automatically. That might cut down on the crack out crowd, and thus cut down on grading fees. Spending money to lose money may not be a thing the TPG would go for. I don't know if such an automated process would be both effective and cost effective at any point, but people might fear it could be so.
There's software in other fields that could easily be used to compare a coins fingerprint with another. A coins weight should also be part of the comparison. A big problem is what to do with the millions of coins already graded. I'm sure an adequate database doesn't exist with the needed details about these coins to make this work. They'd basically have to start over.
A company that builds the database that incorporates all the information and acts as a clearing agency with creditability will push TPGS to own their information and end up as a lucrative enterprise and service to all, and would be in essence its own TPG!
As already mentioned the technology does exist and is and has been in use for about 8 years now. https://www.pcgs.com/news/pcgs-anno...ade-service-for-increased-consumer-protection Just google - PCGS Secure Plus - and you can find out a lot. Including where they tell you that just because this service was used on a coin, that doesn't mean they will not upgrade the coin at a later date.
Excellent topic, maybe the technology will become less expensive and we can get a better idea of population and grades
Nice! Thanks for sharing this. I hope someday this technology - for the good of the industry as a whole - can be shared to prevent people from then sending them to NGC, ANACS, and ICG to circumvent this feature.
I'm sorry I skipped over or forgot about the Secure Plus that PCGS offers. Unfortunately it is an option so it doesn't probably help the typical collector, only those with deep pockets who want more security with expensive-rare coins. It won't stop population inflation since coins not processed with the new technology can/will be broken out of slabs and resubmitted in hopes of a higher grade. Does NGC do something similar as PCGS? This may help keep the numbers in check for the ultra rare coins but not everything else.
As I mentioned above it won't even do that. PCGS has stated that they WILL upgrade coins in Secure Plus slabs. The purpose of the Secure Plus grading tier is two fold. One, all coins submitted under that tier are run through the sniffer to see if the coin has been altered in any way, ie. putty and/or other substances. And two, to provide a way to identify the coins if they are ever stolen and broken out of the slab. That's really all the Secure Plus grading tier is supposed to do.
Just stamp each coin with a micro-chip. It can be matched to the microchip they'll be inserting in people (the owner) in the not-so-far future. Numismatists know that the population reports are inflated by resubmissions so that is (or should be) reflected in price.
There are dealers who do it and they’ve probably had success here and there. You can find undergraded coins in any generations of the slabs. If they just blindly do it though unless they’re crazy lucky they’re definitely throwing money away. The truth and the stories some people tell are often very different. The TPGs almost certainly aren’t sharing technology. That would just be helping out your competition and letting them benefit from your expertise in a field where expertise is what you’re sellig. It makes no sense for them to let the other benefit from the money your company has spent.
The secure plus is now just called the gold shield and has advanced to an AI program that aids in counterfeit detection ect. I’d bet NGC has some sort of program and that both are likely scanning more coins than they advertise. It wouldn’t surprise me if most if not all classics went through that at PCGS since most people pay the extra for it for the trueview which you wouldn’t get if you don’t pay.
Very good point, my friend. I enjoy open discussion that is polite and not condescending in nature. Nice view of the angles. I am relatively new and enjoy learning from experienced people.
baseball21 beat me by 47 min. or so... AI has already been coupled with facial recognition. Yesterday on BBC's "Click" program it reported how AI can learn from facial and auditory data to mimic world leaders like American and German presidents. The software program was called "Deepfake", and it could be used for coins as well, if not already. Of course, this is just picture stuff, and voice. But couple AI to laser conservation of coins and...I leave you to draw your own conclusions. I think it is already happening. Spark
That comment was made tongue-in-cheek. My serious comment was the fact that prices already reflect the fact that population reports are inflated.
I would like to see similar technology used in a slightly different way. I collect, among other things, ancients, but my budget is very limited and I have a few low quality coins, especially late Roman Empire, that can't be identified because there is too little lettering and the various late emperors' coins were so similar. But just as a fingerprint can often be identified from a partial print, so each die, being individually made, should be identifiable by a partial face. Many of you do this for really rare coins just from years of experience. (I am amazed many times by how someone will id a coin and even die variety that I would barely recognize as a coin.) I would like to see someone build a database of ancient coins such that, for a very small fee, it would match these "orphans" to their time and origins. These small coins are not worth submitting to a TGP or other expert because, even with an ID they would be worth almost nothing. It would be time-consuming and expensive to build, but an online, submit-a-photo, automatic computer match, once established, would cost next to nothing to use and could charge only a little and still make good money. Such a system could also id known counterfeits, again something not really doable through the TGPs if the genuine coin would only be worth less than the fee.
A daunting task for sure - biometric databases are funded by the Federal budget for benefit of law enforcement and national security - a rare coin 'numismetric' database of known specimens would have to be privately funded and would require cooperation among TPGs, collectors, dealers and even private citizens in possession of such coins and their images - guidelines for inclusion would have to be established, i.e. rarity, grade, monetary value/auction prices. It's possible, but at what cost ?
Just wishful thinking, to be sure, and it would require a long time and lots of volunteer cooperation. But it would be nice!
PCGS has already been building their own one for years, NGC probably has some similar version as well.
Wildwinds.com has a start on this. A great resource, but you have to have a good idea of the ID before you can look up the ID. A computerized version of searching, using just the data base they already have, would be a start.