Dead cat bounce??

Since premiums are as high as they've been since the 2008 crash, and shortages are surfacing across the globe from India to Canada, I am thinking the question of this thread is moot. There is no possibility for a dead cat bounce, because the price never actually went down. Eagles are still just a shade under $30 unless you can find a local dealer willing to sell them, and around here they won't sell you more than a handful because they can't replenish stock. Physical divergence underway unless they let price reflect true market dynamics. Physical demand is through the roof. COMEX inventories are draining faster than ever. They really shot themselves in the foot. Greed will do that. It doesn't matter if the paper price recovers or not. Their bluff has been called. Either the paper cat bounces or the physical cat pounces.

 

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Now I remember why I got out of bullion collecting......seemed to take the fun out of collecting.

Oh yeah, the cat ain't dead, he'll be back.

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On the whole, your take on the situation seems reasonable. An indicator to watch as to physical supply may well be 2013 production of Silver Eagles. In 2008, the mintage topped 20 million, followed by 30, 35, and 40 million in the succeeding years. I don't believe the 2012 figure has yet been released, but it may have slipped a bit from the 2011 level, perhaps as much as by 25%. If silver pricing stays relatively tame for the rest of this year and the number of 2013 Silver Eagles made shows a further decline, that would be suggestive of an imbalance that can't persist.

 

It makes little difference to me, as our's (mine) was aquired in '64 & 5, all @ face. It was THE family trust & I couldn't touch it if I wanted. Around 50% has gone to land in the last year, since I've had a say. Could be wrong, but I dont think so.
Some of these posts are quite enlightening. The local b&m has common Morgans @ 5 for $100; again.

 

not hard at all...alot of us older folks have been myself included...i was just pointing out that nobody is going to come on here and say otherwise regardless of the truth so there is no point in trying to give yourself accolades because in a place like this it is meaningless. And I was just pointing out the fact that once people go online everything they do seems to increase in greatness.

 

:thumb:

 

Nice to hear this, but the only problem I have with land and real estate is the taxes and the ability of the government to force me to pay more and more of them on the same land. Not just by raising them, but also inflation.

In the end, I believe it's better long term to have real estate and land, mostly because I have the ability to live off its production with my efforts. I'm just really tired of paying more annually for the right to own.

 

I think I'll stop buying for a while and see which way it's going. It may go down further, but I'm not planning on selling until I retire in 5 years anyway. If it gets back to where I can buy a silver dollar for around $15 I may start buying again...

 

I look at the situation the other way. I see the current situation, which was predicted well in advance, as a schooling on the limitations of the physical market. When selling, dealer will not sell to you for what they feel is "too low" in their minds, yet will still reference the market when its high. When buying they will pay the market today, but when its high or they are afraid its falling they pay well back of that. Basically, they will point to the market for pricing whe n it suits them, but ignore the market when "its different now".

PM is a good way to make money if you are the dealer, but as a buyer it simply feels profits are the dealers, but the losses are the buyers. Its always been that way, which i would not but pm with money i wioo need in the next decade. Way too high transaction costs.

 

I don't need a court of law to tell me that 2+2=4 , I can think for myself, look at the facts, and come to the rather obvious conclusions.

Here is a video of Eric Holder admitting it would be difficult to prosecute any of the mega-banks:

[video=youtube;pzDoWlXmNUw]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzDoWlXmNUw[/video]

Of course what he really means to say is that there is no way on earth he is going to start a war with trillion dollar+ institutions, that can afford higher quality hitmen than he can afford security detail. (for anyone who thinks this is a conspiracy theory or ridiculous then you just need to study history more, pyschopaths gravitate to positions of power because they don't have any scruples with doing things that other people are not willing to do for moral reasons)

That said even the mega banks can only manipulate the price so much. Well timed sell-offs bringing the price below technical levels, triggering another round of sells, ect.

As far as Russia and China, I can assure you they are quite happy with the low prices. The lower the price, the faster the resources are flowing from the west to the east. You could even make a case that they have as much an incentive to lower the price as the Federal Reserve/mega-banks in USA.

 

I've been able to get Littleton packaged ASEs for $26 a piece quite readily. It's a significant premium ($2.50+), but definitely nowhere near the $6.50 premium implied by the quoted statement.

 

26 dollar eagles from your coin shop? Littleon's online catalog is prohibitively expensive.

http://www.littletoncoin.com/webapp...te)&cm_sp=HP-041513-_-Category-_-SilverEagles

 

Silver actually dipped below $23 over the weekend (a bad sign), but as of today has clawed its way back somewhat. My sense is that it is poised for a modest comeback, but I'd be surprised if in the short term it topped $25.

 

My LCS is $4.50 over spot, but I am talking online retailers. I am not sure where you can get yours for $2.50 over spot but please share your source as I'm sure many of us would be happy to buy for cheaper than everyone else.

Nothing was implied. I am simply quoting APMEX, Provident Metals, Gainesville Coins, Goldmart, etc. IF they have any in stock. Your assumption that it was implied is just that.

 

The mega-banks will never be prosecuted beyond a small fine because to remove their ability to commit fraud would remove the entire basis for profit in the financial system, their 50-400x leverage in the $quadrillion+ derivatives market would lose support as fast as the robots can sell making 2008 look like a walk in the park, and we would be in a cash/barter system overnight, literally.

Whistleblower Andrew Maguire recently appeared in the CBC documentary titled "The Secret World of Gold" where he detailed how he sat down with a CFTC regulator and explained to him in real time - here is the sell signal, expect a hard sell move - then it happened just as he said it would - multiple times. Apparently that is not considered evidence worthy of a conviction, but there will never be a conviction due to the chain of consequences.

 

I can't remember if my position on silver is short or long. I think it's both until I open the box with the paperwork in it. :devil: