Silver Will Not Top $20 Again Homies

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Eminem, Apr 24, 2014.

  1. Eminem

    Eminem Active Member

    In the short term at least. There simply is no reason to have silver right now. If precious metals are declining or even staying the same it would be smarter to invest in other things. I expect silver to level off at 10-15 dollas in the next year or so and slowly rise to 20-25 dollars in the long term (20-30 years). What do you think home skillets? I can't see silver going above $20 anytime soon maybe in ten years...


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  3. rzage

    rzage What Goes Around Comes Around .

    And then there are people who think it will go up . Now if we knew for sure we's both be rich . To me , it will slowly go up because of all the fiat money being printed which is bringing higher inflation .
     
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  4. Eminem

    Eminem Active Member

    Inflation is only increasing by 2% a year. Silver production has increased by a lot more. Silver should be cheaper now more than ever...


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  5. rzage

    rzage What Goes Around Comes Around .

    But inflation will start rising with the higher interest rates . But I hope you're right and it stays at 2% .
     
  6. Eminem

    Eminem Active Member

    That's not how it works. Inflation is highest when the federal funds rate is low. When interest rates are high there is less inflation. Interest rates are high when there is not enough money and people are competing for that money. Tapering MUST happen if the fed wants to maintain its stable prices goal. QE, increasing the money supply, does not necessarily mean inflation if the economy grows as well. For instance, if the Real GDP grows 4% in 2014 and the money supply increases 6%, inflation will be 2%. We will see interest rates increase as soon as winter this year and that will mean mass inflation will not occur.


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  7. Volante

    Volante Well-Known Member

    U.S. inflation is actually below the Fed's target of 2%, currently sitting at about 1%. The U.S. economy is at more risk of Japanese-style deflation than runaway inflation at this point.
     
  8. coleguy

    coleguy Coin Collector

    If I were to guess I'd say it'll stay about where it's at for the summer then climb about 10% by November. It always seems to climb a bi in the fall for some reason. I wish it would drop to $10 for a while. There are some pieces I'd love to pick up at those prices. Don't see it happening this year though.
     
  9. I am no expert, but I have heard an expert say that most of the US dollars being printed are being shipped overseas and once the US dollar reaches a low that is substantial enough for the other countries not to want it, that they will start to send our Dollars back to us. When this happens the US will be inundated with close to worthless dollars in a short span of time making what we do have even more worthless spurring hyperinflation. What do you gentlemen think about this?
     
  10. scottishmoney

    scottishmoney Buh bye

    Yeah, whatever.
     
  11. RaceBannon

    RaceBannon Member

    The price of silver will either go up, go down...or remain the same. That's the best prediction you're going to get on this or any other board.:D

    That being said, here's an interesting article on the Gold/Silver ratio, which has been on a big bullish run lately, meaning gold has outperformed silver. Or more accurately, silver has underperformed relative to gold. Some analysts would argue that based on these events, silver may actually be undervalued right now. Buy low and sell high...

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-vs-silver-ratio-bullish-141506376.html

    The best tidbit I got out of this article is the following:

    " Because correlations between the two metals are joined at the hip, with silver’s price swings two to three times more volatile."

    My takeaway from that is that while there may be greater risk in silver, there's also greater opportunity.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2014
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  12. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Yes, that is usually the case. Silver is almost always more volatile than gold due to the nature of its demand.

    Regarding printed dollars, they are basically irrelevant. When people talk about "money printing" they are not talking about FRN, they are talking about issuing more dollar denominated bonds. Bonds are the REAL USD.

    Where is silver going? No clue. The safest guess is always to guess it will slowly increase with inflation, (with a lot of highs and lows in between). I am talking real inflation, though, not that mutated, underreported announced "official" inflation.
     
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  13. fiatfiasco

    fiatfiasco Nasty Details Member

    I am curious what analysis you used for this. Just some basic concepts I am curious if you factored in, or you were just trying to "shake things up" a bit in your usual slim "shady" manner":

    1) Silver is a finite resource, there are only "x" ounces to be pulled out of the ground
    2) Silver is consumed in industry
    3) You related the price of silver to "dollars" which is a fiat, base-increasing currency. By the law of economics alone, the value of dollars over time will decrease, so if supply and demand for silver stayed the same, it would still increase in "dollars" cost due to the inverse relationship.

    No offense, but I would stick to claiming you went to the school of "hard knocks" rather than anything with an economic foundation as it will be easier to convince people that you are "hard" rather than intelligent. You kinda need facts and things of that nature if your intent was to actually convince people you know what you are talking about. Kinda applies to life too.
     
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  14. Eminem

    Eminem Active Member

    Read my second post in this thread homie. It'll make your post sound silly.


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  15. mikem2000

    mikem2000 Lost Cause

    Now of course this is technically true but is extremely important to understand that this plays no role what so ever in the silver price AT THIS TIME. Currently there is no danger of running out of silver reserves so for now you need consider the supply infinite. You want more silver, you dig another hole. It is that simple. Is it possible that changes in far off future? Of course, but not now....

    Mike
     
  16. fiatfiasco

    fiatfiasco Nasty Details Member

    Again, I must highlight the importance of number comprehension. From 1900 -2000, the dollar lost 99% of its purchasing power. You are trying to say a 2% increase in inflation (which is a fake statistic anyway) is going to overcome....hmm, I don't knwo, lets just use one example: Quantitative Easing? DOUBLING THE MONEY SUPPLY OVERNIGHT?

    Silly? I don't know about that, I think wearing your pants around your ankles is silly, choosing to grab your ankles while your pants are down is where you now find yourself....
     
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  17. Slider

    Slider Member

    Additionally, although technically true that silver is "consumed" in industry, it is not "destroyed" as some would have you believe. Silver is an element and it's industrial use cannot destroy it, only change it's form. It's "consumed" at the moment because at lower prices, it doesn't make economic sense to recycle it out of SOME (not all) applications. Rising silver prices = greater recycling or "conservation" of silver. Moreover, the consumed silver is still there, it's just in a landfill rather than a hole.
     
  18. fiatfiasco

    fiatfiasco Nasty Details Member

    Not really. Every single mining company prospectus I have read has had a downward trend in ore purity. Which means a higher overall cost of extraction, which translates to a higher price. Sure, you can dig a hole. But 3 machines will have to be purchased to do the job of one 20 years ago.
     
  19. Eminem

    Eminem Active Member

    We will have to wait to see which one of is right!


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  20. fiatfiasco

    fiatfiasco Nasty Details Member

    Right. And if it is in a landfill, it isn't in a ASE or a SBSS round, or a vault, or anywhere to be counted as SUPPLY.
     
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