Moderns v. Classics

I like the way you think, and the way you explain things. Keep it up. This isn't the first post that led me to say this.

 

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You can get a pretty good idea of what the current collector base/demand is for most modern mint products from their current sales. Traditionally, coins appreciate over time as new collectors join the hunt, this is a more stable market and many moderns fit this pattern. A few fall into the “unexpected” sell out and/or very limited mintage categories and may experience a sudden surge in price, which inevitably follows a bell curve, yet settles above issue price, sometimes substantially.

The key to speculating on moderns is choosing the ones with very low mintages, so that if demand increases, prices are affected accordingly. Some mintages are so high, substantial increases in popularity will have no or little affect on price.

To give an opinion to your question about mercury dimes, I do believe the number of collectors of the series will continue to dwindle, until it's relegated mostly to the type collector.

 

I've seen you use this coin a couple times in different threads to support of your assertions that modern silver mint products are a good investment. You COULD NEVER BUY that coin in a roll. It only came in a special 10th Anniversary 5 coin set which included 4 gold coins and the 1995 W. You could buy all 4 proof gold coins separately at the time. Most people thought the Anniversary set wasn't special because of this and only 30K sets were sold. What it created was a low mintage Proof ASE that was not available anywhere else. Since popularity of the ASE series continued to grow, you have a low mintage coin going for HUGE premiums. There's no way to know whether this coin will hold it's value.

I know you are a big believer in some of these modern issues and I hope your right about them, but please use facts to support your position.

The bottom line is a coins value will only rise if there is demand for it. It doesn't matter whether you minted 5 or 500K. If there aren't 5 buyers for the 5 coins minted, it won't rise is value. I think the reference to World Coins by other posters is right on. Those mintages tend to be much less, but their premiums are less because there is no demand.

 

I only use facts. The 1995-w proof ase was broken out of the set and available on eBay in quantities that one could have put a roll (20) together, cheap. I also use facts, or in other words, actual current prices, not conjecture, to support the fact that many moderns have been great long term investments.

Today, for about $1,400, one could put together a roll quantity of the current issue P-Puck. Someday, someone may say, no way you could have done that. I shouldn't say "I only use facts", that's speculation.

 

Hmmm. I don't think I've ever seen a 1995-W below the $2,000 mark which means a roll, typically 20 coins, would have a value of $40,000? Not to mention the matter that most reasonable folks don't put $2,000 coins into a roll. But whatever, I suppose you're being metaphorical.

As for the current 5oz P Pucks from the US Mint site, their price is $159.95
which tells me that you'd have to spend $3,099 plus $4.95 shipping to get a roll of these.

But then, why bother? The wave on these cleared the beach in 2012 and the collector base is relatively small as most are considered, given the size, as 5oz of bullion. I know that some would like to think differently, and they are welcome to it, but the sales are simply not supporting the argument.

But again, whatever in a metaphorical sense.

The reality is that very few modern coins have sustainable premiums associated with them. Collector coin or not, low mintage or not. There are some exception mind you but on a whole, very few.

 

Hmm, you're dealing with a different reality than me. When was the first time you looked at the price of a 1995-w ase? Back when they were released, they sold for $50 to $100 each on eBay. The gold buyers that bought the sets had no respect for them, as did collectors – they weren’t heavily collected and were viewed as just bullion and silver was $4/oz. Based on the low demand and price of silver, $50 to $100 seemed too expensive, so I didn’t put that roll away. I still have "old timers" that come into the shop today that can't believe ase's are considered collectable. Think about that history when you think about the P-Pucks today.

I guess you’re not keeping up with current mint issues. The P-Pucks sell for $139.45 each when purchased with the 10% discount subscription. Looks like the current issue is close to a sell out, after the first week of sales.

Actually, the moderns that have done well over the long run are far too numerous to list here. Check the price guides/recent sales if you want to be amazed.

 

I'm not implying in my earlier post that you are lying. What I'm saying the 1995-W is an anomaly, a different animal altogether. It's skyrocketing price cannot be used to support a theory that Modern coins with low mintages will have similar price rises.

I collect some of the modern commems. I've even chosen some with low mintages to see if they might increase in price in the future, but I'm not betting my retirement on it.

I am putting together a graded Dansco 7070 set. I just bought a 2002 Silver Kennedy PF70 UC off ebay for $43 delivered. You couldn't do that buy yourself with the cost of the silver proof set from the mint, the ~$30 grading fees and the hope you got a 70 on the first submission.

Do I think you can make some money flipping moderns? Sure. But you have no way of knowing if the modern coin prices are sustainable.

 

I bought a 2002 Leif Ericson MS70 for $199 (NGC). Mintage: 28,000! Show me one of those high mintage Morgan's or Peace Dollars in a perfect 70 for under $200 and I'll buy everyone you can show me! Hell, find me a 1881-S Morgan MS70 for under $200. If you can't find one of those, how about a 1923 Peace Dollar MS70 for under $200.

I applaud your enthusiasm for these coins. I have placed some small bets by buying some low mintage modern commems in MS70/PF70, hoping that in 10-15 years, they may show a decent return too. I bought and read the QDB book on Commems published by Whitman, so I do have some interest in this series. But they are not silver dollars. They are 1 oz. of silver bullion in the form of a commem. They have a face value of $1 in commerce, but would you "trade" that bullion piece for only $1 worth of goods?

 

I'm aware that no Morgan or Peace dollar has ever graded that hight and was trying to make a point. He tried to compare modern commems to Morgan and Peace dollars.

 

Morgans are a weird animal. I am convinced they are popular because they are so common. One might think only scarcity makes coins go up, but that is not true at all. Popularity way, way, way trumps scarcity. Morgans are popular since nearly everyones parents had a few.

Anyway, I applaud SQG's enthusiasm as well. I love to read passion in a collectors voice. If you love it, more power to you man. There is plenty of room in tbis hobby for all of us.

 

Give it your best shot.............

 

Sure, but even today you still would have made a lot.

 

eBay was established in 1995 – I was on it from the beginning. Maybe it wasn’t available in all areas, but I lived in San Jose where it was established. Now, I’m going from memory, but those 95-w’s were cheap and I believe the initial price range I quoted is correct, I was toying with putting a roll together and I wasn’t making the big bucks back then.

True many mint products have been losers, but in recent decades there have been more winners than losers, and it’s not hard to pick the winners. Most of the ones I’ve picked are up, some way up, some up a little. So, I’m doing a whole lot better than 100 to 1.

 

I think this is key...low mintages mean nothing if the coin isn't popular or collected. On top of that, these low mintage commemorative coins are intended for collectors...so there is no loss due to wear or damage. Virtually every coin is preserved in high mint state. These coins aren't rare.

IMHO, modern mint products are poor investments long term...and that has been shown to be generally true. Yes, there have been a few products that had great success, the 1995-W ASE, both ASE anniversary sets are prime examples of that. Those still sell for far more than their issue price. But, this is the exception, not the rule.

Many commemoratives have a short term jump...similar to the HOF coins only to see decline. I personally believe the HOF coins will remain above their issue price due to their unique design...but I expect prices to come crashing down to earth from their current location in a matter of months.

A great example of a short term hype was the 2009 Lincoln commemorative silver dollar. When that coin came out, it was hugely popular...sold for 3-4x the issue price on the secondary market. But, it wasn't long until the prices started to drop. Today, it's not hard to find them for their issue price or even a little less.

Personally, I appreciate the modern commemorative coins and if a design comes out that I like I will pick one up. But, I'm not expecting to ever make a profit on them because the majority of the time they do not. So, I buy the coins I like and I enjoy them.

 

Well good for you!

But I'd still like to see your list.

 

Check the price guides.

 

The lists are out there, I'm not going to reproduce them here. Start with the unc commems. You don't even have to price them at MS70, check the MS69/ogp values.