Moderns v. Classics

Don’t get me wrong, the thrill of filling those 1877, 1916-d, 1909-s vdb, 3 Legged Buffalo, etc holes is satisfying, but there’s nothing like the thrill of participating in, collecting and profiting from modern mint products, like the recent HOF coins. Granted, in the 1960's, 1970’s & 1980’s, mintages were too high to sustain prices, but in recent decades there have been some real winners that have done quite well. That old saying, “Wait till later and buy it for less”, simply doesn’t hold water these days. So, what do you think about the collectability of moderns v. classics?

 

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I don't care the least bit about resale value, so in my case, every coin is considered on its aesthetic and numismatic interest. From that perspective, I'm blasé about most modern US circulating coinage. I do like the 2009 bicentennial pennies, however. There are also some handsome and creative commems, like the HOF, and I definitely like many of the recent medals, particularly the Code Talkers.

But if I can't get items at reasonable prices, I just don't get them. I was looking at the 2009 Chronicles set today, which originally sold for $55. Some dealers are asking upward of $200 now. As much as I like the set, I'll wait until I can get it for around $75, and if I can't, I won't. Somebody else can be the sucker.

 

I guess it would be interesting if someone put together a spreadsheet of the last 14 years of offerings from the mint versus current resale. Of course, you would need to adjust for pm price fluctuations. If you did that SQG, I will bet you a nickel that a buyer from the mint was a net loser.

Care to put this list together?

I agree it has gotten a lot better than in the 70's and 80's, but I will still wager a "I buy every product I can from the mint" net net is losing money, but I would grant it would be far less money than previous decades.

 

You don't even have to adjust for pm fluctuations. Take a look at the 2005 American Legacy Set. Today, it sells for about half of the original issue price, and in 2005, the price of silver was below $10.

These days, a collector is SOL when it comes to buying this "bill of goods" from the Mint. The only way you can stay ahead of the game is to buy multiples of an item, submit them for grading, hope they come back 70's and then flip them for a profit while the feeding frenzy is still going strong. If you hold onto them for years, they usually end up falling below the original issue price.

Chris

 

No way! Many products have doubled or tripled and some have gone to the moon and are continuing to rise. I wouldn't suggest buying every product, but use your knowledge to pick & choose. My favorites at this time are the special ASE sets, the unc version of the commems, and P-Pucks, nothing but performance there, even in the face of declining pm's. I wouldn't suggest buying into a frenzy on the secondary market, as yes they will come down, but not lower than issue price, you have to buy from the mint. On the other hand, my classic key dates are down 25% and may just continue if these 20th century series become relegated to the type collector only.

If I were to spend $1,000 on coins today, would the better investment be 7 Smoky Mountain P-Pucks from the mint or a G4 1916-d? No question, the 7 P-Pucks would show a better return.

 

Well, I have been on record here on CT for years saying the "classic keys" were vastly overpriced. I haven't advocated buying keys for quite a while, since I thought they had become so pricey as to stop demand for date/mm collecting.

Spend $1000 on 7 Smoky Mountain pucks versus a nice XF greek silver piece? I am not convinced you would come out ahead in 10 years. You might think so, and we can honestly disagree.

 

I've only done it so far for the collector pucks and the silver proof sets. My next effort is the clad proof sets.

 

Well yeah, 10 years down the road is anyone's guess, but in the short run the Pucks will do better. Yet, some mintages these days are sow darn low, with minimal increase in demand, they'll be big winners long term.

 

I'm not bothering with the clad proofs, the silver maybe. Let's see, what's the retun on that roll of 1995-w proof ASE's I should have put away?

 

What's the return of 99% of proof sets the mint ever produced? Cherrypicking a few winners does not make your case. I can cherrypick any market and tell you its a guaranteed profit to invest in it, (like many pundits do).

 

Any series that started after 1900 is a modern by my definition. Since profiting is not the reason I collect, I stay with my self determined classics. All I ask is to break even when the total button is pressed for the final time.

 

I'm only doing the clad proof sets to show the world the bad decisions that I've made with them. I can only claim some limited success with the three 2008 sets that I bought from the mint. I don't even want to talk about the price that I paid on the after market for the 1999 clad an silver proof sets. Bad story that still leaves a clad taste in my mouth.

 

Guess, Ive just been lucky, as just about everything I've purchased in the last 20 years is up and overall a great return. It's easy these days with so many to pick & choose from with low, low mintgaes - ones that even meet the classic definition of a rare coin..

 

That is why I like the more rare stuff. Cameo coins from the 60's. Rare and appreciating in price, if they catch on more then watch out.

 

Just curious, what is the classic definition of a rare coin?

 

Why would you account for the price of the metal? Isn't that part of buying a PM based coin? To have the intrinsic value as a fall back? IDKJMHO + $.02

 

Because if it went up just because of pm content, the buyer could have just as easily bought pm, right? Saying "this mint product was a great buy because gold went up 100%" is kind of silly. The GOLD went up, not the extra value the mint added to it. Therefor, I would not consider any pm appreciation to be because of superior mint products. An example wuld be the high relief St Gaudens. If gold went up $400 from the date these were sold, I would say $400 was gold appreciation, the rest of this admittedly good buy is because you bought from the mint.

 

But it is composed of gold. It is a gold coin. The metal it is made of factors into why people buy it.

I guess if a 1oz coin was originally offered by the mint at $1000, while gold was at $500, and gold went up to $1000, if the coin was below $1500 it didnt perform well, is that what you mean?

 

Yeah, I collect for reasons other than profit too. One of my favorites these days happen to been a modern with potential, commem "real" silver dollars. The uncs "scream" high grade silver dollar, with mintages lower than Morgan/Peace Dollars, and a variety of designs, much nicer than the same design over & over again. Yeah, there are some dog designs, but many beautiful ones as well. Today’s young collectors may just see these modern silver dollars as superior to the classic commem half dollars, after all, they’re low mintage REAL SILVER DOLLARS, not half dollars.

 

Yes, and I say that because you could have bought gold bullion and got the same return. Same principal applies in reverse. If you bought old in 2012 its unfair to say it was a bad purchase simply because gold went down. All gold went down, the mint and their price structure versus aftermarket did not have any bearing on gold going down.