(ASE) MS vs PR, ?

there is value to slabbed coins, but i agree that i would not go out of my way to pay extra on a slab. Especially not on bullion at 69 or lower.

 

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And you most likely never will. Most dealers that submit to grading companies ask them NOT TO SLAB anything less that MS68. Those coins are returned loose and go back into the tubes for resale to unsuspecting buyers of full rolls claimed to be fresh from a monster box...sure they are.

 

You can have tidy and neat for a lot less than $25 a coin. You can buy slabs off the internet and encase them yourself for pennies on the dollar. You can even custom make your own label to memorialize special events.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Lot-of-25-C...730?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3cb86e4b42

 

It does improve the value a little...maybe not to you but for a lot of collectors. The proof is in the increased sales prices. Also, people aren't spending $25 per coin to do this. The majority of slabbed ASEs we see were done by dealers with large bulk submissions. I believe PCGS charges $12 per coin for this service and if 60% or more of the coins meet the requested grade (which is probably MS68 and sometimes might be MS69)...they don't get charged for any coin that doesn't slab.

 

Not all mintages are large, they're no worse than many of the other coins released in and out of circulation each year.

Well, why would anyone circulate them, they're silver alone is worth more than their face value. They're not intended for circulation since they're bullion.

I buy ASE's at or just a buck or two above spot, that's not overpriced. The proofs are collectibles for sure, if you don't like collecting things, then don't buy them. No one is forcing you to buy the proofs or collectible ASE's.

 

69s do add value to bullion coins. They'll generally go in the $40 - 60 range on ebay. 70s can add a lot more value to the coins, depending on the year of the coin itself and how many bullion coins were banged out and how many of those were 70s. A LOT of bullion ASEs do not make the 70 cut.

 

what I think that many are failing to grasp here is that most of these slabbed bullion depend on population for their premium over melt.

The fact is that millions upon millions of these coins exist raw and the potential for the market to be flooded with 70s if they command a large enough premium is very high. The populations could be set on their heads if a few hundred more monster boxes were certified.

 

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If it was so easy to get 70s and close the gap, people would do it. If there's a big enough price gap, you dont think people have seen the price differences and attempted to do it?

For example, from the NGC census info:

2006 SAE - bullion
MS69 or lower - 180,000
MS70 - 6051

% chance of getting a MS70 - 3.3%

500 SAES * 3.3% = 16-17 MS70s

Cost to grade 500 SAES (VERY conservative estimate) = 500 * $15 = 7500. True costs likely to exceed $10,000.

Or hows about the 1999 bullion SAE? The MS70 is valued easily over $10,000, and probably closer to $20,000. Less than 1/1000 have received a MS70 grade. You'd spend $20,000 just for the probability to say you get 1 coin back as a MS70.

 

here's the problem...

if 186,051 SAEs have been graded, that amounts to approximately 186,051/7,408,640 or roughly 2.5% of the total mintage of that coin. If 25% more of the mintage gets certified over time due to the high premium and the percentage of MS-70s remains constant at 3.3%, the new submissions would yield over 61,000 new MS-70 coins added to the total population. Do you think that might affect your value?

 

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It would drive the value down to a point where submissions would no longer make sense. Right now, the value has already been driven down to a point where it doesn't make sense to submit large amounts of these coins. Market forces aren't perfect, but I'd have to say that right now, submissions do not make sense from a cost/benefit perspective, otherwise people would rush to submit and generate a profit.

If people are dumb enough to submit 1.85 million more SAEs, then of course it would drive the value down further. However, dealers are smart enough to know this is a losing proposition, and collectors know it's way easier and cheaper just to buy one that's already certified.

I guess it's cool to consider in theory, but not very realistic.

 

at the above prices, millions more would be submitted. Who wouldn't take a chance on turning $40 into $10,000?

that's not theory, that's how the coin market actually works.

 

The percentage of MS70s per monster box are higher than 3.3% but then again you are only considering data from one grading company. I used to submit 2 monster boxes a year from 2006-2009 and received no fewer than 38 and no more than 62 per box, depending on the year.