Future price prediction for silver & gold - Page 4

Danr · 10-02-2005, 10:18 PM

cloudsweeper- I will set ego aside and ask what are the flaws in the ideas that I put forward. Especially the idea that more supply will come on the market. The answer to that question gets right to our ability to judge future events.

WillieSutton · 10-02-2005, 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danr

cloudsweeper- I will set ego aside

[[That is always a good thing, for investors and/or collectors.]]

and ask what are the flaws in the ideas that I put forward. Especially the idea that more supply will come on the market. The answer to that question gets right to our ability to judge future events.

I am not cloudsweeper, do not know him, and do not have to speak for him, so I will just add my own opinions. But your simplicity sounds like my old economics professors, i. e., everything in a vacuum or controlled environment. Silver supply may, in fact, come into the market at higher prices, but when and at what cost (e.g., higher energy costs). And will it ever be able to keep up with increasing demand. It has to be found, mined, processed, shipped, etc. There are political (e.g., nationalization) and environmental (e.g., law suits) risks as well. The opportunity to make substantial money is likely to be available in silver well in advance of supply increases. Then there are whole other sets of discussions about silver moving inversely with currencies.

Willie

Danr · 10-03-2005, 02:41 AM

Thanks, I humbled myself and was richly rewarded (not that I totally agree).

anchor1112 · 10-07-2005, 10:11 AM

today price range for silver is between $7.57 to $7.69. retio betwwen gold and silver is around 61 plus. if silver continue to rise and the ratio is 60 to 1. then the price of silver could jump over $8.00.

**Speedy** · 10-07-2005, 06:07 PM

If silver goes up I wonder how many people will rush to sell and bring the price back down????

Speedy

BWJR · 10-07-2005, 06:16 PM

Speedy,

Since supply is mostly fixed for this 2000 coin set. Demand will set the price, not how many people willing to sell.

BWJR

Cloudsweeper99 · 10-07-2005, 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Speedy

If silver goes up I wonder how many people will rush to sell and bring the price back down????

Speedy

There was such a huge silver melt back around 1980 that there probably isn't a huge quantity left to sell into the market at any price below about $20. Silver inventories used to be counted in the billions of ounces. Not anymore. I'm guessing that not too many coin collectors will rush out to melt down their silver collection. I won't. Most of the other forms of silver are already gone except for the special pieces that people just won't sell at any price.

Unless you've lived through a metal bull market, you just can't believe how things can get higher in price than anyone can imagine. Silver went from $1.29 to $50. It could now go from $7 to $???

WillieSutton · 10-07-2005, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cloudsweeper99

There was such a huge silver melt back around 1980 that there probably isn't a huge quantity left to sell into the market at any price below about $20....I'm guessing that not too many coin collectors will rush out to melt down their silver collection. I won't. Most of the other forms of silver are already gone except for the special pieces that people just won't sell at any price.

Unless you've lived through a metal bull market, you just can't believe how things can get higher in price than anyone can imagine. Silver went from $1.29 to $50. It could now go from $7 to $???

Yes, silver prices did move up dramatically and back down around 1980, and then stayed down for some twenty-plus years. Not everyone was around and paying attention at that time, so there may be more silver out there than we might imagine. And perhaps more controversially on this forum, there will likely have to be a huge debt meltdown ahead that could cause unplanned (or unwilling) selling of silver (and other) collectables and pieces. What seems to go unspoken is that numismatics could get a lot cheaper in a recession at the time bullion prices go significantly higher. One may want to have an exit strategy out of bullion and into numismatics in the future at much better comparative values than exists in the two sectors today. More numismatics could be melted inadvertently in the process, as before, thereby helping drive numismatic prices up again to even new heights. Markets move up and down. Not suggesting everyone become a trader, but nice to catch intermediate to long-term trends. Personally, I just don't have the time remaining or stomach for riding out twenty year bear markets, on the long side. Not sure simply leaving it all to the next of kin to sort out is the compelling answer.

Willie

**GDJMSP** · 10-07-2005, 11:46 PM

Yes silver and gold went to crazy heights back when - but let's not forget it was driven there by artificial means. Which of course is why it came crashing right back down.

If you want to have a more accurate idea of how the price of precious metals is rising - look for a foriegn chart, not a chart based on the US dollar. The vast majority of the increase in the price of precious metals in US dollars since 2001 has been due to the value of the US dollar dropping precipitously for the same time period.

In other words - in other nations of the world, the value of gold & silver has increased very little compared to what it was in 2001. Only in US dollars has there been an increase of any consequence in the value of gold & silver.

WillieSutton · 10-08-2005, 12:10 AM

[QUOTE=GDJMSP]... let's not forget it was driven there by artificial means...

True, but that's often how markets work. Irrational exuberance. Activities at the margin. Winding and unwinding. Manipulation. Perception. Etc., etc.

Willie

rick · 10-07-2005, 06:17 PM

personally, speedy, I don't think it's how many people that makes the difference... I think it's the big dogs that trade on the margins that drive the market.

**Speedy** · 10-07-2005, 06:21 PM

I wasn't talking about the 2000 Sets BWJR...I was talking about All silver...

Speedy

**Speedy** · 10-07-2005, 10:26 PM

Quote:

I'm guessing that not too many coin collectors will rush out to melt down their silver collection

No...but how many non collectors that have a few coins from "Aunt so and so" will go out to make a fast $$.

Speedy

Cloudsweeper99 · 10-07-2005, 11:16 PM

Speedy,

The current annual deficit of production compared to the consumption of silver is measured in the tens of millions of ounces. Another way to look at it is that the deficit is somewhere between 5 to 10 times the total number of silver American eagles minted every year, depending on which source of data you use. Aunt So-and-so's coins aren't going to make a difference. If all collectors decided to do a "mass-melt" of all collections of silver coins, effectively destroying the hobby, I suppose that could delay the price rise by several years. I'm not expecting that to happen. The normal reaction of markets to shortages is for the price to rise, and that's what I'm expecting. It's also what is happening, if you follow the price of silver.

silvrluvr · 10-07-2005, 11:39 PM

I hope silver performs better than it has for the last 40 years....Ouch!

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