ecichlid

When a realistic counterfeit slab is created, wouldn't we expect someone to put real coins into them?

Here's the scenario. Attain a MS-65 example of a certain year, date and series. Find a legitimate serial number for that same year, date and series but at MS-67 from an online site that pictures the slab. Create a fake slab with that serial number and MS-67 grade. Put the MS-65 coin in the slab. Sell the coin for a healthy profit.

How would you detect this? Why would one ever need to create counterfeit a coin? Just perfect the counterfeit slab and repeat endlessly.

Mark Feld

That was done approximately 20 years ago. If I recall correctly, the perpetrator got caught when a dealer noticed a coin looked over-graded, did some checking around, one thing led to another and the source of the over-graded coins was discovered.

ecichlid

Where was China 20 years ago? How about Ebay? Fast forward to today. Still think it will play out that way?

GDJMSP

Much cheaper to fake both the coin and the slab - which is happening today and has been for what, a year now ? Yeah, many of them get discovered but we have no idea how many go undiscovered. And they are coming from China so there isn't much we can do about it except try to educate the public and make them aware.

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Treashunt

Doug:
I agree with you-- to a point.

Seeing the stupid prices that modern coins go for in high MS grades, say an MS69 2005Lincoln cent, (just picking a date at random) it is easier to just put a real Lincoln in the slab.

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ecichlid

Exactly. There are many coins that go way up in price with just a few grading points. A counterfeiter would only need to perfect a conterfeit slab once and then make many of them. A coin is a much harder to fake as one could only make so many fakes of the same coin before the word gets out.

Put a real MS-62 coin in a fake MS-64 slab and it's going to be very difficult to detect. Especailly if that slab uses a serial number from a real slab that is pictured online and happens to be the type of coin and the same grade.

Without a online picture verification tool available, I think this whole TPG thing may be toast.

Once a Chinese counterfeiter creates a darn good PCGS slab the game is over, UNLESS PCGS wants to counter this stretgy with their own. I see a way out, but it's not pretty.

Leadfoot

Only if you don't know how to spot two point over-graded coins....

People have been proclaiming the end of coin collecting because of counterfeits for a long time now and it hasn't happened yet. I see no reason why this latest round of counterfeits (to include two point overgraded coins in fake holders) to be any more problematic.

Bottom line: Learn to grade for yourself and mitigate the risk of two point over-graded coins in fake slabs.

Leadfoot

p.s. DGS has just such an online slab verification tool with pictures available here: http://www.dominiongrading.com/popreport.cfm and I would expect PCGS and NGC to follow suit (I thought NGC had already done something similar, but was unable to find it on their website).

Mark Feld

NGC does offer that, though I am currently getting a server error message when I try to acess certain links on their site.

coins123

Counterfiets have been going on for decades. Lots of ungraded keydate coins are all counterfiets with altered dates/mintmarks. Theres also many third tier grading services that overgrade their coins and sell them to fools at inflated prices, they don't even need to counterfiet anything. Yea I agree that you should learn to grade coins and don't buy anything overgraded!

Mark Feld

That is true, but to my knowledge, the industry hasn't faced anything close to what is going on today. And sadly, the reliance upon certification is causing many buyers to let down their guards and make them far more susceptible to buying counterfeits (both coins and holders).

LostDutchman

NGC shows images when you verify the serial number from your slab on their website under the collectors society if it has been graded relatively recently.

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ecichlid

Leadfoot, nothing you stated is incorrect, but it's not the point or counterpoint of the discussion we are having in this thread. The fact is that coins graded by NGC or PCGS carry a premium over raw coins.

Mark Feld hit it right on the head. Here's how I expect it to play out. I will use PCGS as the example, as they are the leading TPG as of today.

1) PCGS will realize, if they already haven't, the problem.
2) PCGS will make an announcement that from a certain date forward, all graded coins will be photographed and the pictures will be uploaded to their website. Anyone will be able to enter a serial number and view a coin.
3) The slab will have a new element or a redesign in order to distinguish it from other PCGS slabs. (People may refer to these as photoslabs or something similar)
4) Grading fees will be increased in order to pay for the additional costs incurred by PCGS.
5) PCGS will also announce that all previously slabbed coins can be sent in for new slabs and the coins will be pictured on their website. This will be done for a fee and offered to the public as a "service" and not a shortcoming. To do so would mean admitting fault.
6) All PCGS slabs created before this process is announced will add no additional value to a raw coin. This includes all slabs PCGS has created since inception.

I welcome you thoughts!

Mark Feld

My thought is that Leadfoot did a very fine job of directly addressing your original post.

As for your 6 point prediction, I think you did great with #1 through #5. But with respect to #6, there would still be countless older PCGS slabs/coins which would trade for significant premiums over the prices of uncertified coins (as they do now). That's because they would be easily recognizable as genuine.

ecichlid

I disagree because my original post makes no mention or implies the "proclaiming the end of coin collecting because of counterfeits". I re-read my original post, I don't see the inference. I think he did well stating that PCGS will follow suit of other TPG's that are posting pictures. He's right on there.

I'm not sure we understand each other. If the old slab has a real coin in it, but the slab is a well done fake, how would it be easily recognizable? The only way I could see it being easily recognizable would be if there was a way to view the coin on-line that resides in the slab. Since this is not possible with PCGS's current process, it would be just a matter of time before the market would reject the old slabs and insist that the old slabs be re-slabbed using the new process. Does this make sense to you or am I missing a point made?

Mark, I appreciate your insight (as well as others) and taking the time to discuss a business process with a novice collector. I might mot understand things because of ignorance, but I can also bring a fresh perspective without much bias. Although I can assure you, more often than not, it will be ignorance I bring to the table. But I'm eager to learn!