mikenoodle

this is all opinion, and conjecture. The muddlings of an increasingly bored, crotchety, aging man. Feel free to point out the holes as you all see them.


All gold and silver from this year will probably sell for a premium if the demand for gold and silver American Eagle coins stay low due to the spot price being high. If people can't afford to buy them, the lowered demand for the coins results in low mintages. When the economy catches up and people can again afford to buy buillion coins for either savings or pleasure, the demand will go up. As this happens, people will try to fill out their collections, and this date will become harder to find driving them to sell for a premium.

so here's a theorem for ya:

If a coin is desired by the masses and is in short supply at the issuing mint during the time it is being sold, shortly after the coin is no longer being sold, it will sell for a premium. The more desired, the higher the premium.

example:

look at the 1996 ASE - low mintage = only coin that carries a premium in the ASE buillion series.

I used this example because it is not a case of the mint selling out of a coin issue, (which also fit my model) but rather lower demand at the time of mintage. I also want to point out to some that low mintage does NOT equal desirability. They are seperate elements in this theorem. A coin must be short in supply AND it must be a desirable coin.

I believe that the Jackie Robinson Gold Set was a case very similar.

ok, set 'em up and see if you shoot this one full of holes!!!

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mrbrklyn

Buy General Motors and Merck stock

and I'm serious

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Danr

Merck yes GM no

HandsomeToad

I'll stick to coins! They too fall under Mike's Rule.

That's why I buy the ones I do right now because in 10 years, they'll be worth ten times what I paid for them but I also didn't pay book for them either, so that helps. With bullion, it seems to sell at book or higher so I'm in it for collecting & investment and nothing about the bullion series screams BUY ME, so I'll leave those to the peeps that want them, plus, they are waaaayyyy too new to go into my coin album.

Nice write, Mike!

Ribbit

Magman

yes, but in 10 years inflation will be at 11x what it is now. lol

RickieB

Toad...for the most part you are right about the bullion coins with a few exceptions...

Here they are;
1. 1991 .50 0z AGE mintage 24,100 (try finding one under 1K)
2. 2004 APE all denoms in Proof
3. 1999 Error .10oz and .25 oz AGE struck with unfinished proof dies
4. 2006 W Burnished die AGE and APE (more so the .50 oz AGE and all unc APE's.
5. 2006 W burnished die ASE
6. 1995 Proof ASE
7. For registry collectors, ASE,APE and AGE sets in PCGS 69-70 wil always carry a large premium.

As far as the 2008 AGE, ASE and APE? They are low mintage but w/o high demand at the moment! Could be something to put away for the future!

RickieB

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green18

Had a chance to buy the 2001 American Buffalo back when it was first issued.....waited too long and it sold in a matter of days. Mintage for the unc. is 227,131. Rather high figure and back a few years ago they were going for in the neighborhood of $300. Today on e-bay one can be had (buy it now) for $180, free shipping included. Still a little high for a rather common and not so rare coin.
Now look at Franklin the Scientist commemorative. Unc. mintage is 58,000. These coins sold quickly as well but not in a matter of days like the Buffalo Commemorative. One can be had on e-bay (buy it now) for $36. Why the large price difference? Demand and what people are willing to pay.

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Arizona Jack

The wife and I made 33% on a quick flip of GM, and 25% on Ford..........

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mrbrklyn

wish I did that. I'm broke at the moment. That will change in 2 weeks, but I spent every nickel on the Jewish Holidays last month and then took the time off without pay.

Ruben

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Treashunt

There are few hard and fast "rules" in coin investing


Rule #1 thru #5645: Don't Invest.

Have fun, and you'll do okay.

Rule #5646:
Buy what I sell.
It will go up immediately.

Rule #5647:
Sell what I buy, it will most likely go down.

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mrbrklyn

rule no 2 - have a steady job with a pension

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mikenoodle

pigs get fed... hogs get slaughtered

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rzage

Buy coins that you like , whatever you make is gravy .
rzage

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Cloudsweeper99

Mike, I generally agree with your observations. The only thing I'd add is that gold never seems to become as popular as silver coins even if both have low mintages.

green18

Basically people it's a crap shoot.....

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