GDJMSP

A brief conversation got started on the World Coin Forum because of a comment I made there. But rather than hijack that thread I decided to broach the subject here. In some circles, it has been much discussed for some time already. In others - it has never even been considered. The subject in question is - what is the outlook for the coin market in general ?

I first started writing about this almost a year and half ago, but at the time my concerns were limited to the US coin market. In particular the market for modern US coins. My concerns then were that we were about to see a drop in values for the high and ultra-high graded examples. Bear in mind that I am talking about the market in general. There are always specific coins or series that do not follow the general trend. Sure enough, it came to pass.

But when the values of moderns did drop, the emphasis of collectors was simply directed to another area. Those older US coin series that had languished in the doldrums price wise soon began to creep up in value. This is not terribly unusual in a bullish coin market. In fact it is commonplace for the emphasis to shift from series to another until most series are experiencing an increase in values. This is what defines a bullish coin market. But what goes up - must eventually come down.

As a general rule, a bull market will last anywhere from 4 to 5 years. While a bear market can last from 8 to 10. These comments are merely based on observations of events that have occurred in the past. Nonetheless it is typical. It is also typical for certain other events to take place during the normal cycle that the coin market undergoes.

One of them is that it always starts out slowly. A given series or particular area of the coin market will begin to move up in value. Most collectors do not notice at first and express surprise when they do notice. And then everyone looks around to try and figure out why. Meanwhile - other series soon begin to increase in value as well.

Looking back, it is always easier to talk about these events and recognized what happened and when. But by doing so in this instance, one can see the beginnings of this bull phase in 1999 which coincided with the advent of the State Quarter series. At the time - most doubted it was the beginning of a strong upturn in coin values. But by 2001 - few remained unconvinced. Since then the coin market has been on a rampage with one series after another showing strong increases in values with some select series showing increases of 300% or more during this period.

But now the question - how long will this last ? If you were to ask collectors this question a great many of them will likely say they see no end in sight. Even more dealers will respond in a similar manner. But are they right ?

Perhaps they are. But what I have noticed in the past is this - at the beginning of the end of any bullish cycle the coin market has undergone in the past, strange things begin to happen. Usually slow or weak periods of the year show unusual strength. Prices in general reach what most consider being outlandish levels. And certain areas of the coin market that rarely if ever see meaningful increases - see sizable increases. So far this year - all of these things have happened.

So what is it to be in the days to come ? Are we seeing the beginnings of a bearish coin market ? Or are we witnessing something that has never happened in the past - a new paradigm for the coin market ?

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