Silver Decline: What Is Your Trigger Point?
With a $5.00 or so drop in the past few weeks, things are beginning to look enticing. I'm hoping for about a $28.00 level to jump in; does anybody else have a trigger point set this time around?
My trigger point to buy is when it goes back down to the $5-$8 range. I would prefer to see silver at $6 an ounce myself but am willing to buy at $8. How I miss the days of buying silver dimes for 30 cents each, silver quarters for $1.50 and silver halves for $3. Those days will be coming back though, it is just a matter of time.
I see it's dropped $1.17 today. I should have known. I bought a healthy stack yesterday.
"I'm gettin sick and tired of excuses.........I'm more into solutions." -Joe Westby, Brookings Oregon
Well, for your sake rodeo, I hope you do win. I don't think it has a chance to reach $35.25 by this weekend for me to win. My trigger point would be $18-20 at the most.
Originally Posted by rodeoclown
I don't forsee it. It's been my understand that the Fed has been strongly encouraging the bigger banks to dump their gold and silver positions to prevent a stron devaluation of the dollar. Recent remarks about enforcing trade sanctions with China, possible involvement in the Sudan to halt ethnic clensing as well as the next default of Greece, make me feel that the next Bull Run is on the horizon.
First, since the banks do comply with the Fed wishes and drive the price downward by dumping is ended. I mean you can only sell "short" a limited amount. Then if it turns, you lose your butt. And everything on a world scale points to a turn IMHO. The economy has not improved greatly if at all. Unrest is on the horizon. Even a pull out of troops in Afghanistan is not going to cause PM's to fall. I truly feel that a large run is gonna happen. I am currently buying what I can and holding for the long run.
I might look at it around $22-23 and buy a couple hundred ounces.
The thing to remember about prices is that every year its expected the nominal price will go up. I know its hard for us that bought when it was $4 to put that in perspective, but looking back at historical prices I think $22 would be relatively cheap versus inflation. The problem will be if silver goes down like that I doubt dealers will sell for normal premiums. They jacked up their premiums sky high the last time it went down significantly.
My long standing maximum buy price for silver bullion is $20 because that is my estimate of an amount that would be at or slightly below the cost of production for many primary silver producers. Note that this is total cost and not cash cost which is misleading.
for someone starting to buy silver, what do you suggest, 1oz bullion bars? peace dollars?
My gut feeling is at those days are long gone. I would bet that if silver spot fell below a certain price point, such as $20/ounce, that many would back up the truck and buy a lot of it. This would then likely lead to an increase in spot price. Psychological barriers have been crossed now, and many new (and old) buyers would be sensitive to a big drop. TC
Originally Posted by NOS
Have you adjusted that lately for current oil prices?
Originally Posted by Cloudsweeper99
don't know how many $$ you have to invest but i would strt out with 1oz bars and rounds. lots of choices and easy to sell as little or as much as you want. after you have a bunch maybe look at 10oz bars you can stack a lot in a little space.
Originally Posted by cdwest
lot of real bears
seem to be some real bears here. i thought back in Jan silver and gold would fall into mid april or so to $25-27 range. but if we hit $30 I'm going to add some and then wait and see. at $26-27 I'll add a bunch. have to sniff the winds when (if) we get to there and get a sense of the big picture.
Senior Errer Collecktor
I think that the economy has improved! The USD is staying strong, The banks ( no matter how much one hates them) have strengthened their internals, China news that they have imported 34B more than they have exported, making their soft landing somewhat less soft, and today that aspects in many hard hit housing boom areas are improving such as Ariz., Calif., and east coast have put strong pressure on PM, and will continue to do so, socio-politico world events not included. This is with little faith in the major stock market move, which has cost many sideliners money, but if it solidifies, the next PM boom may not come anytime soon. I own investment property in Northern Ariz. and have for the first time in many years received inquiries as to willingness to sell. One down week of course doesn't mean an end, but to ignore what is actually happening in the economy can be very detrimental to ones investment. IMO.
Originally Posted by desertgem
+1 I would be keeping my eye on the bond market here too, in recent days the yields have been going up, if this continues it's a pretty good indication money is moving back into risk on mode. Silver was not a risk on mode investment this cycle, it moved in line with bond prices as a safe haven.
If all the safe havens start decreasing in price and all the risk assests increase I would be pretty nervous about holding PM.
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