Thread: Opinions: Best $1K Numismatic Invesment For The Best Return?

I don't know any coin investors who have made millions JUST investing in coins... I do know people who have smart investments ALONG with some coins and have made money... But these coins they are buying are $50k plus to begin with. It takes some ching to get into the world of "investment rarities".

Your right Chris. I would still like to point out a recent experiment I did on the Bust Half series.

Let's look back on the previous 20 years. What I have in front of me is the 1991 (Handbook of U.S. Coins- Dealer Buying Prices), and a numismatic news (December 2011) which a respected CT member sent me in the mail.

If we take your example of let’s say 80 bust halves. For experimental purposes we'll say that 20 of them are pre 1820 and 60 of them are post 1820. If we take out the over dates/less common varieties than we have an average price per Half at $60 pre 1820 (1991 prices at EF-40) and $50 per Half post 1820 (1991 prices at EF-40). This would be an investment of $3,200 for 80 EF Halves back in 1991.

According to http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/I...Calculator.asp If we calculate inflation rates for the last 20 years, than $3,200 has the same buying power as $5,315 in 2011.
So now I take the Dec. 2011 numismatic news and lookup the same pre/post 1820 bust halves. Pre 1820 XF-40 list at $185 x 20 = $3,700 and post 1820 non over dates/rare varieties and come up with XF-40s at $175 x 60 = $10,500. This gives us a total of $14,200 for the same 80 halves in 2011.
If we subtract the $5,315 (2011 buying power) from 2011’s total value of $14,200, you have a raw profit after inflation of $8,885. If you take this and divide it by 80, than you have an average of $111 raw profit (after inflation) per bust half.
This is at dealer price-guide. I am not saying that it is a 100% guarantee profit here, but I don’t see how it could have been a terrible investment (in this series, if you knew how to grade at the time).

Originally Posted by medoraman

Well I was saying if you bought a problem coin in the 60's for $4 your return today would not be nearly as strong as if you bought the problem free $6.50 one. 50 years is a long time financially. That same $6.50 in 1962 growing at only 5% interest is now $700 Jason. That is what the price would have to be for it to roughly match inflation. Even matching inflation is not a "great return", and these coins do not even do that. If you bought the coin for $6.50, how much would a dealer pay today for it? How much would a dealer pay for a problem XF today that maybe you paid $4 for? $4 turns into $430 today, do you think its still a good investment? I have about 80 XF/AU capped bust halves Jason, will you pay me anything near these prices if I walked in today? $700 for all my common XF capped bust halves, and I would have to sell.

Listen, coin collecting is a great hobby. You spend countless hours of times enjoying yourself, learning new things about history and geography, socializing with others, etc. And, when you are done, you have some value left. This is superior to most hobbies like boating, mountain climbing, race car driving, etc which are pure expense and nothing is left over. However, its a hobby, so should not be confused with real investments in which you are gambling your retired life and security on. Those are a different topic.

Chris

JCB, the flaw in your example is that you are assuming that you could have bought the coins at wholesale in 1991 and that you can now sell your coins at retail today.

Bullion like gold or maybe use it to start becoming a coin dealer and buy local collections and hoard etc.?

Originally Posted by medoraman

You are? If you factor in inflation, (or time value of money), and had to sell today, you would be ahead? I doubt I would be. Its easy to be ahead of purchase price if you hold onto them long enough, but inflation eats away your return every year.....

Yeah, but what's the alternative? A savings account? My best savings account is getting 0.25% right now with a credit union. Another bank is at 0.1% You could lock it in to an online, "high yield savings account at a whopping 0.9%. Or a CD for 2% if you're lucky. You're still losing for years to come. To the OP, if you had a free $1k sitting there I'd say buy something gold and roll the dice. You may as well take your chances with it than with the banks.
I don't think anybody will be surprised when gold goes to 2,3,5k and beyond. Some day we'll look back at this time as the good old days. Give it 10 more years. Silver will be $100, at least. In the mean time, the fed has no choice but to keep interest rates bottomed out to kick the can down the road and hold off total collapse as long as possible. Meaning the banks will be paying nothing for many years to come.
If anybody here thinks interest rates will be coming up any time soon, just look at the housing market. The US has 10s of millions of homes sitting vacant. Sellers cant sell right now with the lowest interest rates we've ever had. If you want to see CURRENT home prices drop off a cliff, just raise interest rates to 6, 8 ,10%, like the old days. I expect to see banks paying 0.1% for many years to come.

Originally Posted by jello

2011 US Army Mintage gold comm only 8012 struck. with that low of mintage Gold spot price may not factor in the price of the coin

That's more than double the mintage of most of the uncirculated First Spouse golds. The FS golds have gone up, but they haven't skyrocketed.

The US Army gold might indeed go up in value, but it's got to overcome deeply entrenched indifference to modern commemoratives in general, IMHO.

Originally Posted by Mark14

copper isnt a great investment but if i can get 300 oz for $325 i think that i can make a profit, albeit a small profit

I really don't see how you're going to make a profit after buying at nearly five times spot...?

Originally Posted by LostDutchman

I don't know any coin investors who have made millions JUST investing in coins... I do know people who have smart investments ALONG with some coins and have made money... But these coins they are buying are $50k plus to begin with. It takes some ching to get into the world of "investment rarities".

If you got boxes of the first 2009 cent you paid face and could sell them for 5x or 6x what you paid. If you got boxes of 2009 dimes or nickels you could triple your money- tripling your money in less than a year - point to one "$50K plus" coin buy that did that- I could come up with a lot of small money coins that did that- 1999 proof sets- 2006 eagle sets-buffalo silver dollars- capital visitor center $5 gold commem-there are dozens

Originally Posted by -jeffB

That's more than double the mintage of most of the uncirculated First Spouse golds. The FS golds have gone up, but they haven't skyrocketed.

The US Army gold might indeed go up in value, but it's got to overcome deeply entrenched indifference to modern commemoratives in general, IMHO.

it will be like the salt lake city unc $5 gold- it will be offered at $600 but no one will buy it and the sellers will not lower their prices.

Ahhh. That would be a major flaw.

Originally Posted by Hobo

JCB, the flaw in your example is that you are assuming that you could have bought the coins at wholesale in 1991 and that you can now sell your coins at retail today.

Originally Posted by Danr

If you got boxes of the first 2009 cent you paid face and could sell them for 5x or 6x what you paid. If you got boxes of 2009 dimes or nickels you could triple your money- tripling your money in less than a year - point to one "$50K plus" coin buy that did that- I could come up with a lot of small money coins that did that- 1999 proof sets- 2006 eagle sets-buffalo silver dollars- capital visitor center $5 gold commem-there are dozens

On the other hand, I believe the 1970-S proof half was going for quite a bit more in 1972 than it is now. I'm also remembering that the 1999 silver set has dropped to something like a quarter of its peak value, although I can't seem to come up with a definitive price history on it.

Contrary to some of the opinions voiced here, coins do NOT "only go up".

Originally Posted by -jeffB

If you got boxes of the first 2009 cent you paid face and could sell them for 5x or 6x what you paid. If you got boxes of 2009 dimes or nickels you could triple your money- tripling your money in less than a year - point to one "$50K plus" coin buy that did that- I could come up with a lot of small money coins that did that- 1999 proof sets- 2006 eagle sets-buffalo silver dollars- capital visitor center $5 gold commem-there are dozens

On the other hand, I believe the 1970-S proof half was going for quite a bit more in 1972 than it is now. I'm also remembering that the 1999 silver set has dropped to something like a quarter of its peak value, although I can't seem to come up with a definitive price history on it.

Contrary to some of the opinions voiced here, coins do NOT "only go up".

I think that everything I mentioned is twice orig price (and consider that when buying rolls for face value there is no down-side). just last year -2011- we had the 25th anniversary eagle set (doubled) and the unc Army half (tripled). If you pay attention you can pick this sort of thing up and double/triple your money.