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Old 05-03-2006, 09:51 AM   #1 (permalink)
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For the past few years PCGS coins have sold for more....but things change and that could be what changes today or tommrow.
BTW--as we have said many times....but you don't seem to see it....just because a slab sells for more doesn't make the company any better--we have been in this topic many many times...if anyone new wants to read about it you can search for NGC/PCGS or MS70 or such and look for topics that have many pages

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Old 05-03-2006, 11:08 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Speedy
For the past few years PCGS coins have sold for more....but things change and that could be what changes today or tommrow.
Amen! Amen! Back home that's what you say when you finsh a prayer..."Amen". And ladies and gentlemen, what you heard is a prayer!

"Things could change and that could..." Wishful thinking and hoping something could happen is just that...wishful thinking or a prayer. So again I say, AMEN!



FACT: Look at past and today's current prices realized and determine why one service carries a premium over the other. Could it be that one service carries more weight with the numismatic market than the other? If you want to hope things could do this or could do that...get on your knees and pray. I have coins in my collection from all the top TPG's and PCGS stands right up there with their grading as anybody. So with that in mind, the rest of the numismatic community must agree as well. Don't blame this on marketing or registry sets because NGC markets and has registry sets too!

The market has spoken and IS still speaking!!

See for yourself...AMEN!

eBay Completed Auction Prices

Heritage Coin Prices Realized LINK
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Last edited by Midas; 05-03-2006 at 11:23 AM.
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Old 05-04-2006, 01:09 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Hey Midas, which one is you?



The fact that you are a blind PCGS follower is fine. The fact that you want to believe they are the undisputed #1 is fine. The fact that you want to look at selective criteria to defend this position is fine. Lots of people choose to be ignorant and that is fine. Everyone is free to believe what they want. However, a lot of new coin collectors read this forum and you're giving them WRONG information.

The so-called #1 grading service has gone back and forth from PCGS to NGC. It's not an if, but a when. No prayer needed. It will happen again and again.

The spread between PCGS and NGC has narrowed. This really started a couple years ago. It will likely continue.

PCGS is not the most respected service out there. In fact, they are greatly disliked by the dealer community thanks to their lack of consistency and arrogance toward their customers.

All things are not equal. Do not think that just because your coins are in PCGS slabs that they will bring you more money when you go to sell. There are many factors that come into play. Lack of consistency in grading is a major one. You need to understand this. I mean YOU REALLY NEED TO UNDERSTAND THIS. Yes, YOU!

You can have instant liquidity from many dealers for an NGC or ICG coin.
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Old 05-03-2006, 10:24 PM   #4 (permalink)
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I agree. IMO, PCGS is #1 in grading the majority of the coins I collect. But, with that said, ANACS is not that bad. Recently they have had some problems due to their move. But it has not comprimised their grading. From a service perspective, if you call ANACS, they are very accommodating. (I've had my coins personally moved through their grading system by the service technicicains. They have also called me to give me updates as to the progress of coins.)

I have several coins at ANACS that I sent in mid- March and paid for 10 day service. YES, I still haven't received them...but I'm patience. Every once in a while I call ANACS to check on the progress. I've been told they are making good with coupons for future submissions as a result of the delays. To sum it all up... IMO, the grading of the coins has not been comprimised and being somewhat behind schedule I can live with.
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Old 05-04-2006, 09:07 AM   #5 (permalink)
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I didn't make the rules...I didn't set the market...I didn't influence the numismatic community over the last 20 years...All I did was research the market place and then offered FACTS and LINKS to support my argument.

I own coins from all of the top TPG's, but the question came up to who should you submit to? Well, if I am going to go through the hassle and expense of coin submissions, I want the service that will not only offer my coin a grade and authentication, but will be respected and demanded in the numismatic community!

Take a look at some coins being sold and better yet, HAVE BEEN SOLD in recent days/months/years:

BTW...From Webster's dictionary...

Source: 1.) a point of origin 2.) The place of origin for a stream of water 3.) One that supplies information

The source in this case is Heritage's COMPLETED auctions and PRICES REALIZED!

How about a 1909 VDB 1c, a common coin no doubt and one that Lincoln collectors will likely see go up when 2009 comes around. This is just for 2006 (Source again is Heritage...you got it?...it's called a source):

May 1, 2006 66 PCGS $218.50
May 1, 2006 66 NGC $184.00
May 1, 2006 66 PCGS $184.00
April 30, 2006 64 ANACS $66.00
April 29, 2006 67 PCGS $1,035.00
April 10, 2006 66 PCGS $195.50
April 10, 2006 66 PCGS $195.50
April 10, 2006 66 PCGS $195.50
April 10, 2006 66 PCGS $195.50
April 10, 2006 66 PCGS $195.50
April 10, 2006 66 PCGS $195.50
April 10, 2006 66 PCGS $184.00
April 7, 2006 67 PCGS $1,265.00
April 2, 2006 65 PCGS $92.00
March 26, 2006 65 PCGS $97.75
March 19, 2006 65 PCGS $92.00
March 12, 2006 65 NGC $72.45
March 7, 2006 65 NGC $74.75
March 6, 2006 66 PCGS $218.50
March 6, 2006 66 PCGS $207.00
March 6, 2006 66 PCGS $207.00
March 6, 2006 66 PCGS $207.00
March 5, 2006 65 PCGS $97.75
March 5, 2006 65 NGC $74.75
March 5, 2006 66 PCGS $184.00
March 4, 2006 67 PCGS $1,150.00
February 28, 2006 65 PCGS $97.75
February 28, 2006 65 NGC $86.25
February 28, 2006 66 PCGS $207.00
February 21, 2006 65 PCGS $115.00
February 21, 2006 65 PCGS $92.00
February 21, 2006 66 PCGS $207.00
February 19, 2006 65 PCGS $92.00
February 19, 2006 65 NGC $80.50
February 19, 2006 67 PCGS $1,150.00
February 14, 2006 65 PCGS $97.75
February 14, 2006 65 NGC $86.25
February 14, 2006 66 NGC $149.50
February 14, 2006 67 PCGS $1,150.00
February 13, 2006 64 PCGS $54.00
February 13, 2006 66 PCGS $276.00
February 12, 2006 66 PCGS $218.50
February 7, 2006 66 PCGS $218.50
February 5, 2006 65 NGC $74.75
January 15, 2006 64 NGC $48.00
January 15, 2006 66 NGC $166.75
January 10, 2006 64 NGC $48.00
January 10, 2006 65 NGC $80.50
January 9, 2006 66 PCGS $184.00
January 8, 2006 64 PCGS $51.00
January 8, 2006 64 NGC $48.00
January 7, 2006 67 PCGS $1,035.00
January 7, 2006 67 PCGS $1,150.00
January 7, 2006 67 PCGS $805.00
January 7, 2006 67 PCGS $1,150.00
January 7, 2006 67 PCGS $1,150.00

How about a 1881-S Morgan that Zane was looking to submit? How has that coin done in the marketplace in just MS65 grades alone (since there is a BUNCH of these that were sold since the first of the year?:

Auction 26051, Lot 13403 Tuesday, May 2, 2006 65 NGC $149.50
Auction 26051, Lot 13404 Tuesday, May 2, 2006 65 NGC $138.00
Auction 405, Lot 8376 Monday, May 1, 2006 65 PCGS $218.50
Auction 405, Lot 8377 Monday, May 1, 2006 65 NGC $161.00
Auction 405, Lot 8378 Monday, May 1, 2006 65 NGC $195.50
Auction 405, Lot 8379 Monday, May 1, 2006 65 NGC $161.00
Auction 405, Lot 8381 Monday, May 1, 2006 65 NGC $207.00
Auction 405, Lot 8382 Monday, May 1, 2006 65 NGC $299.00
Auction 405, Lot 8383 Monday, May 1, 2006 65 PCGS $276.00
Auction 66044, Lot 23350 Sunday, April 23, 2006 65 ANACS $109.25
Auction 66044, Lot 23351 Sunday, April 23, 2006 65 ANACS $109.25
Auction 66044, Lot 23352 Sunday, April 23, 2006 65 ANACS $97.75
Auction 66044, Lot 23353 Sunday, April 23, 2006 65 NGC $138.00
Auction 26043, Lot 13587 Tuesday, April 18, 2006 65 PCGS $149.50
Auction 403, Lot 8109 Monday, April 10, 2006 65 NGC $172.50
Auction 403, Lot 8110 Monday, April 10, 2006 65 PCGS $126.50
Auction 403, Lot 8111 Monday, April 10, 2006 65 NGC $138.00
Auction 403, Lot 8112 Monday, April 10, 2006 65 PCGS $126.50
Auction 403, Lot 8113 Monday, April 10, 2006 65 NGC $184.00
Auction 403, Lot 8114 Monday, April 10, 2006 65 PCGS $149.50
Auction 403, Lot 8115 Monday, April 10, 2006 65 PCGS $138.00
Auction 403, Lot 8116 Monday, April 10, 2006 65 PCGS $126.50
Auction 26041, Lot 13232 Tuesday, April 4, 2006 65 PCGS $149.50
Auction 26041, Lot 13233 Tuesday, April 4, 2006 65 NGC $138.00
Auction 26041, Lot 13234 Tuesday, April 4, 2006 65 NGC $138.00
Auction 26041, Lot 13235 Tuesday, April 4, 2006 65 NGC $121.90
Auction 26041, Lot 13236 Tuesday, April 4, 2006 65 NGC $138.00
Auction 66041, Lot 24258 Sunday, April 2, 2006 65 NGC $115.00
Auction 413, Lot 7925 Monday, March 6, 2006 65 NGC $126.50
Auction 413, Lot 7926 Monday, March 6, 2006 65 NGC $138.00
Auction 413, Lot 7927 Monday, March 6, 2006 65 NGC $126.50
Auction 413, Lot 7928 Monday, March 6, 2006 65 NGC $126.50
Auction 66024, Lot 23409 Sunday, February 26, 2006 65 ANACS $126.50
Auction 26023, Lot 13443 Tuesday, February 21, 2006 65 PCGS $126.50
Auction 26023, Lot 13444 Tuesday, February 21, 2006 65 PCGS $138.00
Auction 66023, Lot 24434 Sunday, February 19, 2006 65 NGC $115.00
Auction 66023, Lot 24435 Sunday, February 19, 2006 65 ANACS $115.00
Auction 66023, Lot 24436 Sunday, February 19, 2006 65 PCGS $126.50
Auction 401, Lot 8652 Monday, February 13, 2006 65 PCGS $126.50
Auction 401, Lot 8653 Monday, February 13, 2006 65 PCGS $138.00
Auction 401, Lot 8654 Monday, February 13, 2006 65 PCGS $431.25
Auction 401, Lot 8655 Monday, February 13, 2006 65 PCGS $109.25
Auction 401, Lot 8656 Monday, February 13, 2006 65 NGC $195.50
Auction 401, Lot 8657 Monday, February 13, 2006 65 PCGS $126.50
Auction 401, Lot 8658 Monday, February 13, 2006 65 PCGS $142.60
Auction 401, Lot 8659 Monday, February 13, 2006 65 PCGS $115.00
Auction 401, Lot 8660 Monday, February 13, 2006 65 NGC $126.50
Auction 401, Lot 8661 Monday, February 13, 2006 65 PCGS $126.50
Auction 401, Lot 8662 Monday, February 13, 2006 65 PCGS $149.50
Auction 26021, Lot 13313 Tuesday, February 7, 2006 65 NGC $115.00
Auction 26021, Lot 13314 Tuesday, February 7, 2006 65 PCGS $146.05
Auction 26021, Lot 13315 Tuesday, February 7, 2006 65 PCGS $149.50
Auction 26021, Lot 13316 Tuesday, February 7, 2006 65 PCGS $149.50
Auction 26021, Lot 13317 Tuesday, February 7, 2006 65 PCGS $138.00
Auction 66021, Lot 24190 Sunday, February 5, 2006 65 PCGS $161.00
Auction 391, Lot 29238 Monday, January 30, 2006 65 NGC $230.00
Auction 26014, Lot 13278 Wednesday, January 25, 2006 65 PCGS $139.15
Auction 26014, Lot 13280 Wednesday, January 25, 2006 65 NGC $155.25
Auction 66014, Lot 24346 Sunday, January 22, 2006 65 NGC $132.25
Auction 66014, Lot 24347 Sunday, January 22, 2006 65 ANACS $97.75
Auction 26013, Lot 11657 Tuesday, January 17, 2006 65 NGC $115.00
Auction 26013, Lot 11658 Tuesday, January 17, 2006 65 ANACS $109.25
Auction 26013, Lot 11659 Tuesday, January 17, 2006 65 PCGS $172.50
Auction 26013, Lot 11660 Tuesday, January 17, 2006 65 PCGS $149.50
Auction 66013, Lot 23393 Sunday, January 15, 2006 65 ANACS $109.25
Auction 66013, Lot 23395 Sunday, January 15, 2006 65 PCGS $138.00
Auction 26012, Lot 13247 Tuesday, January 10, 2006 64 PCGS $48.00
Auction 395, Lot 26654 Monday, January 9, 2006 65 PCGS $172.50
Auction 395, Lot 26655 Monday, January 9, 2006 65 PCGS $184.00
Auction 395, Lot 26656 Monday, January 9, 2006 65 NGC $103.50
Auction 66012, Lot 24223 Sunday, January 8, 2006 65 PCGS $149.50
Auction 66012, Lot 24224 Sunday, January 8, 2006 65 NGC $138.00

How about a modern?? Let's look at the 2005 Bison Proof nickel:

Auction 26042, Lot 11120 Tuesday, April 11, 2006 69 PCGS $31.00
Auction 26041, Lot 13076 Tuesday, April 4, 2006 70 NGC $97.75
Auction 26024, Lot 11100 Tuesday, February 28, 2006 70 NGC $92.00
Auction 26023, Lot 13162 Tuesday, February 21, 2006 70 NGC $149.50
Auction 395, Lot 25589 Monday, January 9, 2006 70 PCGS $207.00
Auction 389, Lot 7455 Monday, November 7, 2005 70 PCGS $276.00

Look...sure there are exceptions here and there (especially toned examples), but if I am going to submit to a service and IF I wish to liquidate my collection, I know that "all things being equal" I will sell PCGS graded coins for MORE than the other services. I didn't make the rules...I am just proving what the market is bearing.

Where are your facts?? Prices realized (that means REAL money paid) is a pretty good indicator to measure market demand, so again, where are YOUR facts??

Or are you just going to offer another opinion so you feel good about yourself?
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Last edited by Midas; 05-04-2006 at 11:07 AM.
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Old 05-04-2006, 11:36 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Ok…..I took your info and “facts” and tried to pull the coins sold the SAME day from both grading companies.
We must guess that all of the coins were graded right and that none had toning or carbon spots or such that would either help or hinder the price

Quote:
1909 VDB Cents
May 1, 2006 66 NGC $184.00
May 1, 2006 66 PCGS $184.00
April 10, 2006 66 PCGS $184.00
Looks like PCGS and NGC are right together on this one….I don’t see how that shows that PCGS is selling for MORE…it looks like the SAME

Quote:
Also 1909 VDB Cents
January 7, 2006 67 PCGS $805.00
January 7, 2006 67 PCGS $1,150.00
And right here…..it looks like PCGS slabs sell for all over the place….maybe that is because their grading isn’t consistant---that is over $300 change in the SAME day.
Quote:
1881-S Dollars
Auction 405, Lot 8376 Monday, May 1, 2006 65 PCGS $218.50
Auction 405, Lot 8382 Monday, May 1, 2006 65 NGC $299.00
Auction 405, Lot 8383 Monday, May 1, 2006 65 PCGS $276.00
My goodness….it looks like for 1881-S Dollars you would do better in a NGC slab than a PCGS slab…..WOW…..maybe PCGS isn’t so hot after all.
It might be that NGC is better at grading Morgan dollars and collectors know that.

Quote:
Buff Comm’s
Auction 26041, Lot 13076 Tuesday, April 4, 2006 70 NGC $97.75
Auction 26024, Lot 11100 Tuesday, February 28, 2006 70 NGC $92.00
Auction 26023, Lot 13162 Tuesday, February 21, 2006 70 NGC $149.50
Auction 395, Lot 25589 Monday, January 9, 2006 70 PCGS $207.00
Auction 389, Lot 7455 Monday, November 7, 2005 70 PCGS $276.00
None of these were sold at the same time or even the same year….could it be that maybe the value has gone down?….it seems that even on Ebay you can get one of these for about $100….value has gone down.

Now I took these right from your post.....so I don't think you can say that they are wrong....
I've said in other posts that PCGS seems to maybe be stronger on PF/MS70 coins.....but on coins such as Morgan Dollars--Franklin Halves---and many many others NGC is the one to send in coins.
Collectors are slowly learning this and the market will change soon.
I know that you collect Copper coins and I went to Heritage and pulled 2 pages of Copper coins...I found over a hand full of coins that show that in their date and mintmark PCGS has graded tons more than PCGS in that grade or higher....POP reports aren't the thing to go by....so coins no matter who they are slabbed by will sell for the same....if you had a 1913 V Nickel.....it won't matter who its graded by because they are going to sell for millions anyway.

It doesn't really matter to me if you agree or disagree.....its my collection and I'll get my coins graded by who ever I want....and the same goes for anyone that collects.....we should collect how and what we like.

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Last edited by Speedy; 05-04-2006 at 11:38 AM.
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Old 05-04-2006, 01:12 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Speedy
It doesn't really matter to me if you agree or disagree.....its my collection and I'll get my coins graded by who ever I want....and the same goes for anyone that collects.....we should collect how and what we like. Speedy
For the love of Pete, I did state there were exceptions here and there and you found some of them. As for the 1881-S example, some of these coins sold at much higher than normal prices because they were toned examples (as I clearly mentioned in my post).

LOOK at the entire spectrum of coins sold in this short time period (that means less than a year) and prices REALIZED across the ENTIRE SPECTRUM.

I could care less what you do, what you collect, and who you submut to. Your argument is like a little kid who takes the ball home so nobody can play. The question came up on which TPG to submit to and I offered a solid opinion based on REAL market pricing and REAL facts.

I forgot about Teletrade. Let's look at Teletrade because they sell a bunch of coins graded by the top TPG's. Let's see how some of their auctions have done and the prices the TPG's in question REALIZED:

How about a 1950 Franklin Proof? I know that they are dear to you...

Apr 10 2006 Half Dollar 1950 Proof PCGS 65 CAM $1456*
Mar 5 2006 Half Dollar 1950 Proof NGC 65 CAM $1400*
Dec 19 2005 Half Dollar 1950 Proof NGC 65 CAM $1344*
Nov 28 2005 Half Dollar 1950 Proof PCGS 65 CAM $1624*

Nov 20 2005 Half Dollar 1950 Proof NGC 66 $448*
Oct 23 2005 Half Dollar 1950 Proof NGC 66 $504*
Sep 14 2005 Half Dollar 1950 Proof PCGS 66 $560*
Jun 27 2005 Half Dollar 1950 Proof NGC 66 * $523*

How about a "run-of-the-mill" 1954 MS Franklin?

May 1 2006 Half Dollar 1954 PCGS 65 $179*
Apr 19 2006 Half Dollar 1954 PCGS 65 $63*
Apr 3 2006 Half Dollar 1954 NGC 65 $38*
Mar 5 2006 Half Dollar 1954 PCGS 65 $58*

How about 1931-S Lincoln?

Apr 30 2006 Small Cent 1931S PCGS 64 RD $314*
Apr 19 2006 Small Cent 1931S PCGS 64 RD $291*
Jan 1 2006 Small Cent 1931S PCGS 64 RD $280*
Nov 21 2005 Small Cent 1931S NGC 64 RD $213*

How a 1955 Proof Lincoln?

Mar 29 2006 Small Cent 1955 Proof PCGS 67 CAM $146*
Mar 6 2006 Small Cent 1955 Proof PCGS 67 CAM $213*
Feb 20 2006 Small Cent 1955 Proof PCGS 67 CAM $168*
Feb 8 2006 Small Cent 1955 Proof NGC 67 RD CAM $95*

Silver American Eagles anybody?

Apr 19 2006 Bullion Silver Dollar 1995P Proof Eagle NGC 69 Ultra Cam $202*
Mar 27 2006 Bullion Silver Dollar 1995P Proof Eagle NGC 69 Ultra Cam $157*
Mar 8 2006 Bullion Silver Dollar 1995P Proof Eagle PCGS 69 DCAM $246*
Mar 6 2006 Bullion Silver Dollar 1995P Proof Eagle PCGS 69 DCAM $224*

Apr 30 2006 Bullion Silver Dollar 2001W Proof Eagle PCGS 70 DCAM $616*
Apr 23 2006 Bullion Silver Dollar 2001W Proof Eagle NGC 70 Ultra Cam $168*
Apr 17 2006 Bullion Silver Dollar 2001W Proof Eagle NGC 70 Ultra Cam $213*
Apr 2 2006 Bullion Silver Dollar 2001W Proof Eagle NGC 70 Ultra Cam $168*

An oldie but goldie...the 1913 Buffalo Nickel:

May 3 2006 Nickel 1913 Type 1 NGC 65 $134*
Apr 23 2006 Nickel 1913 Type 1 PCGS 65 $179*
Mar 29 2006 Nickel 1913 Type 1 NGC 65 $134*
Mar 27 2006 Nickel 1913 Type 1 PCGS 65 $168*

My point is clear. If you are going to submit coins for grading in hopes of protecting the liquidity of our assets or by obtaining the HIGHEST value of your collection, you need to take look at a number of factors including which TPG service realizes the highest prices in the numismatic community.

This is not for collectors that are determined to convince newbies that ANACS is better than or NGC is the best or Midas Grading Service (MGS) is the best...BTW, remember...the 4th staple is FREE and your grades come back MS70 if you pay up front



This is for those people who have a coin(s) and are thinking about submitting it for grading and authentication whereby they then will have a more LIQUID asset than if the coin was sold raw. If you buy the coin, buy from whoever you want and get the best coin raw or in any slab you can get...

BUT...when it comes time to sell (as our coins will all outlive us), consider the market forces in hand. I do!
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Last edited by Midas; 05-04-2006 at 01:16 PM.
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Old 05-04-2006, 04:15 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Midas
The question came up on which TPG to submit to and I offered a solid opinion based on REAL market pricing and REAL facts.
But you ignored and continue to ignore a VERY substantial part of the submission process: The Consistency of the Grading Service.

You are assuming that you take an MS65 and can submit it to NGC or PCGS and get an MS65 grade. That is completely untrue. PCGS is all over the map when giving grades. You submit that MS65 to NGC and it grades MS65. You submit it to PCGS and it comes back MS64, then bodybagged for cleaning, then MS64, then MS65. That inconsistency costs money. You have to factor that into the cost when selling these coins.



Quote:
My point is clear. If you are going to submit coins for grading in hopes of protecting the liquidity of our assets or by obtaining the HIGHEST value of your collection, you need to take look at a number of factors including which TPG service realizes the highest prices in the numismatic community.
Yes, a NUMBER OF FACTORS - not just the selling price. You need to look at the cost of getting it into the correct slab.



Also, moderns and copper coins will sel for more in PCGS slabs. PCGS plays games with the populations of moderns to keep prices high. As for copper, they guarantee the color which NGC did not in the past.
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Old 07-28-2008, 06:40 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
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....if you had a 1913 V Nickel.....it won't matter who its graded by because they are going to sell for millions anyway.
...and there are plenty of fabulous rarities in NGC slabs. Look at the big Power Player auctions.

If NGC is inferior, why are the biggest entrusting their best to NGC as well as PCGS ?
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Old 05-04-2006, 02:50 PM   #10 (permalink)
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MIdas, I looked at the Heritage numbers that you posted earlier and did a little statistical analysis.

for the 09 VDB I threw out the MS 64 grades because there was only a handful, obviously there weren't enough to be statistically significant. and I threw out the 67's because those were all graded by PCGS, and that would have been a boring comparison. That brings up an interesting question though, why were there 10 PCGS 67's and NO NGC 67's? Is that a reflection on how often those companies give out 67's or does it mean something else? I don't know.

Anyway, For NGC 65 coins the average price was $78.78 with a standard deviation of $5.08.
For PCGS 65's the avearge was $97.11 with a standard deviation of $6.88.

That means that the PCGS 65 coins sell for an average of 23.28% more, but they have a standard deviation that is 35.5% more!

Nor the NGC 66's the average sale price was $166.75 with a standard deviation of $14.08, while the PCGS 66's sold for an average of $204.70 with a standard deviation of $20.12.

Again PCGS sold for more (on average 22.76% more) but had a standard deviation that was 42.83% higher!

Now for the 81S Morgans.

First I disregarded the ANACS coins because of the small sample size and the fact that no one is disputing the fact that NGC and PCGS are the top 2 companies.

The NGC graded coins sold for an average of $151.24 with a standard deviation of $40.57 and the PCGS 65's sold for an average of $157.15 with a standard deviation of $57.38.

Once again the PCGS coins sold for more (on average 3.91% more) but this time the standard deviation of the PCGS sample was 41.43% greater on average!

What these numbers tell me is what we've been hearing all along, PCGS coins sell for more (sometimes a tiny bit more as in the1881 S dollar), but based on the differences in standard deviations, the PCGS graders aren't as consistant as their NGC counterparts. The prices of NGC coins are just much more stable than the prices of PCGS coins. BOCTAOE


BTW, I disregarded the coins that you listed from Teletrade based on the very small (and statistically insignificant) sample sizes.
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Old 07-28-2008, 06:34 PM   #11 (permalink)
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MIdas, I looked at the Heritage numbers that you posted earlier and did a little statistical analysis....

Anyway, For NGC 65 coins the average price was $78.78 with a standard deviation of $5.08.

For PCGS 65's the avearge was $97.11 with a standard deviation of $6.88.

That means that the PCGS 65 coins sell for an average of 23.28% more, but they have a standard deviation that is 35.5% more!
Thank you, Thank You, THANK YOU. This is exactly the sort of analysis that is needed.

One of the concerns I have about this particular set of numbers... it is for a Lincoln cent, which has the designation BN, RB, or RD in addition to the numerical grade. I don't see any correction for that, since Midas didn't include that detail in his stack of numbers.

That factor alone adds much to the standard deviation, since BN, RB, or RD sell for dramatically different prices.

Another MAJOR factor to watch for when using Heritage's history to look for price trends... since ANACS places problem coins in holders*, beware when you see an ANACS price half of the NGC price. It's not because ANACS sucks... it's because that ANACS coin was a problem coin. That fact is hidden when looking at the big stack of numbers.

That illustrates why NGC was wise to place problem coins in NCS holders... it distances the NGC name, brand perception, and value perception away from the lower value problem coins.


* plainly and clearly labeled as problem coins

Last edited by 900fine; 07-28-2008 at 06:43 PM.
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Old 07-28-2008, 06:55 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by The_Cave_Troll View Post
BTW, I disregarded the coins that you listed from Teletrade based on the very small (and statistically insignificant) sample sizes.
Again, THANK YOU.

The notion of small sample size, statistical irrelevance, and the tendency for anecdotal information to mislead is lost on many.

Some folks will compare five or six sales, looking at slab numbers only, and draw far-reaching conclusions. What might be happening in one time and place, and one series / denomination, is not to be wildly extrapolated around the world.

Just because you think you have a correlation for Frankies doesn't mean it works for Chain cents !

What's more, most people buy the coin, not the slab. That's one reason there's so much standard deviation... not all MS63s are created equal ! Exceptional coins within a grade sell for more.
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Old 05-04-2006, 04:49 PM   #13 (permalink)
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What these numbers tell me is what we've been hearing all along, PCGS coins sell for more (sometimes a tiny bit more as in the1881 S dollar), but based on the differences in standard deviations, the PCGS graders aren't as consistant as their NGC counterparts. The prices of NGC coins are just much more stable than the prices of PCGS coins.
Are you saying that because the standard of pricing deviation is lower in essence is due to grading consistency or lack of consistency?

Quote:
BTW, I disregarded the coins that you listed from Teletrade
That was just another prices realized source for people like Speedy who wanted to see pricing for the same coin at the same (< 30 days) specific times. His contention was the market moved. In less than 30 days??? I don't think so unless the governemt found another hoard of coins I don't know about. Remember when he said this:

Quote:
Speedy = None of these were sold at the same time or even the same year….could it be that maybe the value has gone down?….it seems that even on Ebay you can get one of these for about $100….value has gone down.
Quote:
But you ignored and continue to ignore a VERY substantial part of the submission process: The Consistency of the Grading Service.
Prove it! Show me your references and raw data to support your claim. I am basing my claim on REAL prices that were in FACT realized. I trust the free market and dollars more so than opinions.

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You are assuming that you take an MS65 and can submit it to NGC or PCGS and get an MS65 grade. That is completely untrue. PCGS is all over the map when giving grades. You submit that MS65 to NGC and it grades MS65. You submit it to PCGS and it comes back MS64, then bodybagged for cleaning, then MS64, then MS65. That inconsistency costs money. You have to factor that into the cost when selling these coins.
Again, prove it...show me your data. Anyways, if you look at the prices PCGS gets for their coins LESS any submission costs, you still way be ahead in the advent you have to liquidate your collection. Remember: Selling Price less expenses equals profit. Look at a P&L statement, you'll figure it out.

Quote:
Yes, a NUMBER OF FACTORS - not just the selling price. You need to look at the cost of getting it into the correct slab.
Again...selling price less cost of the coin and any submission costs equals earnings before taxes and interest paid (EBIT). PCGS charges $18 for an ecnomy submission and what does NGC charge? $16. PCGS charges $30 (US coins) for their next service and NGC charges $21. When your selling price exceeds these costs, it it called a profit.

Quote:
Also, moderns and copper coins will sel for more in PCGS slabs. PCGS plays games with the populations of moderns to keep prices high. As for copper, they guarantee the color which NGC did not in the past.
So PCGS plays games with the POP reports?? Please show me your proof! Or is it locked away in some government buliding where all conspiracies are kept.

Talk about a reach...
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Last edited by Midas; 05-04-2006 at 05:51 PM.
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Old 05-04-2006, 07:03 PM   #14 (permalink)
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But you ignored and continue to ignore a VERY substantial part of the submission process: The Consistency of the Grading Service.
Prove it! Show me your references and raw data to support your claim. I am basing my claim on REAL prices that were in FACT realized. I trust the free market and dollars more so than opinions.
If you need proof that PCGS is inconsistent in grading, then I assume you’ve never submitted any quantity of coins to them, nor have you had discussions with dealers who submit to them. They are KNOWN for being very inconsistent. Most any dealer can tell you this.

And if you want to trust the free market and dollars, take a look at where the money is spent on submissions. If PCGS is the king, then why does NGC grade more coins than PCGS? And why does ICG & ANACS grade a SIZEABLE amount of coins. If PCGS is so great as you say, can you explain why more than 2 of every 3 coins go to the other services?

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Quote:
You are assuming that you take an MS65 and can submit it to NGC or PCGS and get an MS65 grade. That is completely untrue. PCGS is all over the map when giving grades. You submit that MS65 to NGC and it grades MS65. You submit it to PCGS and it comes back MS64, then bodybagged for cleaning, then MS64, then MS65. That inconsistency costs money. You have to factor that into the cost when selling these coins.
Again, prove it...show me your data. Anyways, if you look at the prices PCGS gets for their coins LESS any submission costs, you still way be ahead in the advent you have to liquidate your collection. Remember: Selling Price less expenses equals profit. Look at a P&L statement, you'll figure it out.
So you’re saying that if a PCGS graded coin brings $30 more in the marketplace than an NGC graded one, but I had to submit it 3 times to PCGS to get the correct grade, that I’m still ahead?

I’m quite familiar with P&L statements. I’m also quite familiar with the grading services. God knows I spend enough money grading coins – at least 50K last year. I’m well aware of the costs of resubmissions and the awful consistency of PCGS. If you had any contact with some real dealers in the industry, you’d be fully aware of this.

Quote:
Quote:
Yes, a NUMBER OF FACTORS - not just the selling price. You need to look at the cost of getting it into the correct slab.
Again...selling price less cost of the coin and any submission costs equals earnings before taxes and interest paid (EBIT). PCGS charges $18 for an ecnomy submission and what does NGC charge? $16. PCGS charges $30 (US coins) for their next service and NGC charges $21. When your selling price exceeds these costs, it it called a profit.
Correct, that is called profit. Now that page 1 of the Econ 1 textbook has been read it’s time to actually look at the numbers.

You have a raw coin. It cost $1,000. It is a middle of the road MS65.

NGC: Submission costs $30. You coin grades MS65. Total cost to you is $1,030. You sell the coin for $1,200 and make $170. This takes a month.

PCGS: Submission costs $30. The coin grades MS63. You crack it. Resubmission costs $30. The coin bodybags for cleaning. Resubmission costs $30. The coin grades MS65. Total cost to you is $1,120. You sell the coin for $1,275 and make $155. This takes 5 months. Is this really a benefit to the submitter?

If you think the above doesn’t happen every day, you are very, very wrong.


Quote:
Quote:
Also, moderns and copper coins will sel for more in PCGS slabs. PCGS plays games with the populations of moderns to keep prices high.
So PCGS plays games with the POP reports?? Please show me your proof! Or is it locked away in some government buliding where all conspiracies are kept.
I didn’t say they play games with the population reports, but rather they play games with the populations of coins in certain grades. Given your love for the 70 grade, you should know this.

Question: How many coins have you submitted in total and to PCGS alone? My gut feeling is that you’ve never submitted a coin to any service and you think that PCGS is great based only on selling price of a few coins.
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Old 05-04-2006, 10:26 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Midas
Are you saying that because the standard of pricing deviation is lower in essence is due to grading consistency or lack of consistency?
yes, that is the conclusion that I drew from the data. The obvious assumtion that I made was that higher quality coins for each grade received stronger bids and lesser quality coins for each grade sold for less, but if that isn't the case then that would prove the point that PCGS buyers will pay anything to get the coins that they desire, which would make this whole discussion pointless. My assumption is partially faulty, but it will have to do for our purposes.
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