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Old 03-01-2006, 10:30 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Posts: 796
An Analysis of POP Reports of PCGS and NGC 70 Grades...

Every now and then, I get questions from other collectors about the top TPG population reports from PCGS and NGC. I explain how many of these reports are scewed due to crack-outs and resubmissions (especially with Morgans and golds).

But...

And here's the big but...I real feel these reports hold their weight and merit with moderns. Think about it...how many proof 1996 Lincolns would you see being cracked out and resubmitted? If anything, I would bet more are broken out to fill an open slot versus playing the resubmission and crack-out game.

Now...with that said. People have asked me WHY PCGS 70 grades realize way more dollars than NGC 70 graded coins?

[Before I go on, let's not debate if there is such thing as a "perfect" 70 coin under 5 times magnification...if you want to, start another thread]

Well...I could tell them a number of things like marketing, registry sets, PCGS was first on the slab scence, etc.

But...

I really think that PCGS's grading standards are more strict and conservative compared to NGC when it comes to moderns and the holy grail of all grades: 70! Hence another reason why they command higher prices. Okay, that is just my opinion so again, I looked and analysed the POP reports and my conclusions support this opinion.

Let's look at some random coin POPs from 1996 and 2002. Why those years? No particular reason but I figured if anybody was interested in submitting these coins, they would have already done so. Also, I doubt if any collector would really crack out a 69 grade and hope it would grade up to a 70 if they resubmitted back to either PCGS or NGC.

So let's look at these PR70 grade reports for 4 coins from 1996 and 2002:

1996 1c:

57 out of 2142 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 2.66% for PCGS
69 out of 756 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 9.13% for NGC

1996 5c:

46 out of 2354 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 1.95% for PCGS
75 out of 730 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 10.27% for NGC

1996 50c (Plain):

43 out of 1615 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 2.66% for PCGS
28 out of 203 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 13.79% for NGC

1996-P ASE:

41 out of 3254 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 1.26% for PCGS
201 out of 3080 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 6.52% for NGC

Okay, that was 10 years ago...let's look at the same PR70 coins for 2002:

2002 1c:

33 out of 3371 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 0.98% for PCGS
302 out of 2396 total submissions received a 70 grade, or 12.60% for NGC

2002 5c:

56 out of 3209 total submissions received a 70 grade, 1.75% for PCGS
168 out of 2420 total submissions received a 70 grade, 6.94% for NGC

2002 50c:

24 out of 1801 total submissions received a 70 grade, 1.33% for PCGS
123 out of 1090 total submissions received a 70 grade, 11.28% for NGC

2002 $1 ASE:

70 out of 4407 total submissions received a 70 grade, 1.59% for PCGS
1758 out of 8533 total submissions received a 70 grade, 20.60% for NGC

******************************************

So why does PCGS slabbed coins, especially the 70 grades command a steep premium for their 69 and 70 graded moderns?? Just maybe...do you think PCGS is a "bit" more conservative with handing out these grades than NGC?

Could this be another reason why their coins realize these higher premiums over the other TPG's because there are not as many out in the population?

Modern coin grading is HUGE for the TPG's. The TPG's are not idiots. They know the future of their business is with getting us collectors to submit our moderns...and we all know that collectors are paying big bucks for the best of the best.

Look up the numbers, do a little 5th grade math and see for yourself. When you want the best of the best, you have to do some research don't you think?

__________________

“It's what you learn after you know it all that counts.” - John Wooden

Last edited by Midas; 03-02-2006 at 09:11 AM.
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