rick

Before I go too far, I would like to point out that I do know that the coin market, like all markets, tend to be cyclical - you have your ups, you have your downs. Right now, as I understand it, we are on an up cycle, although I have to take the word of those more experienced, because I have only avidly collected for a relatively short amount of time, and I have not studied past years price levels for direct information. I have heard of the silver boom, but I did not experience it, because I was a young kid at the time.

Now I see people talking about it - when will the shoe drop? When will the bottom fall out? There was an article about it in the latest issue of The Numismatist. I had no arguments with the top ten reasons listed in the article - however, I felt that #3 (Collector Knowledge) should have been #1, as I think that point outweighs the importance of the other 9 issues combined.

My question is pretty simple, how much of the market is tied into speculation? With so many people looking for the bear market to begin, and many of those people have the opinion that it will be particularly difficult bear market, would it be any wonder when and if that comes to pass?

In this article, this point was somewhat touched upon with #2, relating to consumer confidence. I'm not an overly intelligent person, but I know enough to watch what the smart people - those more informed and experienced - are saying. It concerns me when these people have a decidedly glum look at the future. Their opinions can hold a significant sway in the market.

Will the prices fall - absolutely. No doubt about it. Point blank, it will happen. It's the nature of the beast.

I just wonder how much is self-fulfilling prophecy, and how much is healthy market correction.