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While I would love for this market to continue, I am one that believes that we are nearing the end. The Statehood quarter program did bring many millions into the hobby, and quite a few have found more traditional series to expand their interests. Some tried and true aspects will always remain a steady side of the market. The registry programs at PCGS and NGC seem to be limited in their growth, which is a good indicator of the modern market. Many of the investors have begun to make their way back to the stock market. This also will limit the length of this bull market. With the advent of these specialized areas such as full steps, full heads, split bands, it seems as if the market is attempting to create an upswing within the given market. With venues such as online auctions we now sit in an interesting time frame. More collectors have access to better material. The major problems that I see for the market are lack of fresh material, and lack of knowledgeable collectors. This market is following those of the past. Collectors follow the trends too easily. They see that the prices for coin X is rising and they all flock to that area. When the knowledgeable collectors see this, they in turn sell. Many dealers are following the market with great interest to see how the next few BIG statehood quarters effect the overall market. Texas, Florida, and Michigan were really a disappointment.
With the lackluster designs, the new collectors are moving to new areas, yet without a strong base to propell one it will die off and people will move onto something new and different.
Here recently I have been tracking the foriegn and ancient markets, and I am seeing a spike in those areas. Maybe this is a new upswing, or maybe it is just fresh new material generating a renewed interest.
One of the coin magazines published a recent article on rarity in the coin market, and they hit the nail on the head. Most collectors don't look outside of the mainstream collected coins. This is why the market fails repeatedly. There are too many playing follow the leader.
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